Economic and jobs news thread

weatheriscool
Posts: 12950
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Jobless claims: Weekly claims rise to 202,000

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, March 31, 2022, 8:31 AM · 3 min read

Initial unemployment claims rose modestly after reaching a 50-year low as employers continue to show reluctance in reducing their workforces in the current competitive labor market.

The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

-- Initial jobless claims, week ended March 26: 202,000 vs. 196,000 expected and a revised 188,000 during prior week

-- Continuing claims, week ended March 19: 1.307 million vs. 1.340 million expected and a revised 1.342 million during prior week

Weekly unemployment claims edged higher for the first time in three weeks but rose only marginally from multi-decade lows set just last week. At 188,000, last week's tally for new jobless claims marked the lowest level since September 1969. And continuing claims, which track the total number of individuals claiming ongoing benefits on regular state programs, have also fallen precipitously and reached just over 1.3 million in mid-March. The last time it reached that level was in December 1969.

While the weekly jobless claims data have been volatile, the reports over the past several months have shown a clear decrease in the number of individuals newly rendered out of work. While the quits rate has been elevated — and last rose by 0.1 percentage points to reach 2.9% in February — movement between jobs has also been high, with workers largely confident in their abilities to find new roles after leaving their previous positions.

However, the relatively low numbers of new jobless claims belies the strain still facing employers, who have still largely struggled to find enough labor to meet demand. However, some of this deficit has started to be filled, especially as jobs have grown for 14 consecutive months, based on the Labor Department's monthly non-farm payrolls data. Job growth is expected to extend that streak in March in the forthcoming monthly jobs report due out Friday.
{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-j ... 49945.html
weatheriscool
Posts: 12950
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

U.S. inflation jumps again and hits 6.4% rate, the Fed's favorite price gauge shows

By Jeffry Bartash
PCE price index rises 0.6% in February

The numbers: The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation calculator rose a sharp 0.6% in February and kept the increase over the past year at a 40-year high, explaining why the central bank plans to move faster to raise U.S. interest rates.

The so-called personal consumption price index climbed to 6.4% in the 12 months ended in February, up from 6.2% in the prior month, the government said Thursday. ... That's the steepest increase since January 1982. ... The better known consumer price index rose by an even higher 7.9% in the 12 months ended in February.

Key details: A narrower measure of inflation that omits volatile food and energy costs, known as the core PCE, rose by 0.4% in February. ... The increase was the smallest in five months and matched the forecast of economists polled by the Wall Street Journal. ... Still, the rise in the core rate in the past year rose to 5.4% from 5.2%, reflecting the largest gain since 1983.

The Fed views the PCE index -- the core rate in particular -- as the most accurate measure of U.S. inflation. It's more comprehensive and takes into account when consumers substitute cheaper goods for more expensive ones -- say ground beef for filet mignon or tofu for chicken.
{snip}

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-i ... 1648730285
weatheriscool
Posts: 12950
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

U.S. economy adds 431,000 jobs in March
Source: Washington Post
The U.S. economy notched another month of robust job growth in March, adding 431,000 new positions and further bolstering the most rapid job market rebound on record.

The unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, from a pandemic low of 3.8 percent in February, the Labor Department said Friday.

The fastest economic recovery in decades has pushed many measures of employment strength into uncharted territory: Job creation and new openings are at near-record levels, while the jobless rate is approaching historic lows. But some worry that the labor market may be too tight, with businesses across the economy reporting labor shortages, as job openings continue to far outnumber available workers.

"It's been a remarkable recovery -- we've never seen anything like this," said Jane Oates, president of the employment-focused nonprofit WorkingNation and a former Labor Department official. "Two years ago, every sector was at least disrupted if not completely shut down. But we've had such a quick recovery that things are almost back to normal."
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... rt-growth/
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 6509
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by caltrek »

The 1% Move Report for April 5, 2022
April 5, 2022

https://www.morganstanley.com/content/m ... e-20220405
(Morgan Stanley)
What Happened in the Markets?

The S&P 500 declined 1.3% on Tuesday to close at 4,525. With the sell-off, the index is now down 5.1% year to date.

Stocks sold off on Tuesday in what was largely a reversal of the prior day's gains. Growth and technology shares underperformed as interest rates were sharply higher across the curve, while defensives Utilities and Health Care were relative leaders. Tuesday's focus appeared to be on remarks from Federal Reserve President Lael Brainard, who stated the Fed could start reducing its balance sheet as soon as May at "a rapid pace." In geopolitics, additional sanctions are expected to be announced against Russia by the US, EU, and Group of Seven, which includes a ban on new investments in the country. Markets will turn attention to Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes, which could unveil more thinking on the Fed's path for tightening policy and Q1 earnings season, which is set to begin next week.

Four of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher, with Utilities (+0.7%), Health Care (+0.2%) outperforming the broad market while Information Technology (-2.2%) and Consumer Discretionary (-2.4%) lagged.

As of the 4pm equity market close, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.55%, its highest level in three years. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil declined to $100 per barrel while gold was also lower close to $1,920 per ounce. The US Dollar strengthened as measured by the US Dollar Index.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
weatheriscool
Posts: 12950
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Jobless claims: Another 166,000 Americans filed new claims last week

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, April 7, 2022, 8:31 AM
U.S. first-time unemployment claims came in well below expectations last week, with the rate of new layoffs and firings staying low compared to pre-pandemic averages.

The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

-- Initial jobless claims, week ended April 2: 166,000 vs. 200,000 expected and a revised 171,0000 during prior week

-- Continuing claims, week ended March 26: 1.523 million vs. 1.302 million expected and a revised 1.506 million during prior week

The number of new claims filed last week marked the lowest level since 1968 and represented a third consecutive week that new claims were below 200,000. The prior week's new claims were also markedly downwardly revised to 171,000, from the 202,000 previously reported for the end of March. Prior to the pandemic, new claims were averaging around 218,000 per week throughout 2019.

The latest weekly jobless claims data comes on the heels of another solid monthly jobs report from the Labor Department, which showed a significant rise in hirings and a drop in the jobless rate to a near 50-year low. Non-farm payrolls grew by 431,000 in March, while the unemployment rate improved by a greater-than-expected margin to 3.6%. And as of last month, the U.S. labor market was just about 1.6 million payrolls short of its pre-pandemic levels.
{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-j ... 01498.html
weatheriscool
Posts: 12950
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Mortgage rates hit 5%, highest in more than a decade
Source: Axios
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage hit 5% this week for the first time since 2011, according to widely cited data from Freddie Mac.

Why it matters: It's becoming increasingly expensive to buy a house — if you can even find one. Over the past three months, mortgage rates have surged at a pace last seen in 1987.

At the same time, the home-buying frenzy driven by the pandemic has reduced the available supply of single-family houses. The number of home listings was at a record low last month, according to realtor.com data.

Open houses around the country with a line of folks waiting out the door are not uncommon.

Bottom line: It's going to be hard for first-time buyers to afford a house, but it'll likely be a while before the real estate madness
moderates.

Read more: https://www.axios.com/mortgage-rates-hi ... ee3f8.html
weatheriscool
Posts: 12950
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Jobless claims: Another 185,000 Americans filed new claims last week

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, April 14, 2022, 8:31 AM · 3 min read

U.S. jobless claims held near multi-decade lows last week as companies worked to keep employees on their payrolls amid ongoing labor shortages.

The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

-- Initial jobless claims, week ended April 9: 185,000 vs. 170,000 expected and a revised 167,000 during prior week

-- Continuing claims, week ended April 2: 1.475 million vs. 1.500 million expected, 1.523 million during prior week

While first-time unemployment claims rose slightly more than expected in the latest weekly data, they were still near a 54-year low set earlier this month. Weekly claims fell to the lowest level since 1968 during the prior week at just 167,000. That compares to the average of about 218,000 new claims filed per week throughout 2019 before the pandemic. And the latest figures represent a staggering reversal from the outsized claims filed at the height of the pandemic two years ago, when claims at one point topped 6.1 million in a single week in April 2020.

Given the surge and then decline in jobless claims, the Labor Department has also now reconfigured the way it adjusts the weekly data to account for seasonal factors. Starting last week, the Labor Department returned to using "multiplicative" seasonal adjustment factors for the data. For much of the pandemic, the department had been using "additive" seasonal adjustments that help smooth out large swings in the weekly numbers.

Nevertheless, the underlying trend in the claims data has undeniably pointed to a labor market still short of sufficient worker supply to meet demand. Labor costs have risen for companies across industries as a result, and contributed to a further jump in inflation. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) released earlier this week showed consumer-level inflation rose 8.5% in March over last year — the fastest annual rate since 1981.
{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-j ... 45858.html
weatheriscool
Posts: 12950
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Retail sales rise 0.5% in March amid soaring inflation
Source: AP

By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO
NEW YORK (AP) — Retail sales rose modestly in March, but higher prices for food, gasoline and other basics took a big share of consumers’ wallets.

Retail sales increased 0.5% after registering a revised 0.8% increase from January to February. Spending has been fueled by wage gains, solid hiring and more money in banking accounts. January’s increase of 4.9% was the biggest jump in spending since March 2021, when American households received a final federal stimulus check of $1,400.

Excluding an 8.9% increase at gas stations, overall retail sales were actually down 0.3% last month, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

“They are spending selectively this month and the gasoline price spike from the Russian-Ukraine war was where most of the expenditures were made,” said Christopher S. Rupkey, chief economist at research firm FWDBONDS LLC.



Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 3805f40f8d
User avatar
caltrek
Posts: 6509
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by caltrek »

How I (and US policymakers) Got Inflation Wrong
by Dylan Matthews
April 13, 2022

https://www.vox.com/22996474/inflation- ... gdp-powell

Introduction:
(Vox) Let’s get this out of the way first: I was wrong about inflation.

When prices began ticking up a little faster than normal early last year, I wasn’t overly concerned. I’d been covering economic policy since 2008, and in that whole time (in fact, in my whole lifetime!), the US had never had a problem with excess inflation.

In fact, our main inflation problem was that we had too little of it. The Federal Reserve, which is tasked with managing the money supply to keep inflation steady and unemployment low, set a low inflation target of 2 percent a year, and kept falling short. If there is, as most economists believe, some trade-off between inflation and unemployment, that means the Fed’s policies on inflation were unduly hawkish and kept many people out of work during the long recovery from the Great Recession.

So I wrote a long piece last summer arguing that high inflation was unlikely in the 2020s. When fears arose last fall that rising inflation expectations — that is, people thinking inflation was going to be higher in the future — could in turn lead to more inflation now, I wrote a newsletter citing research that cast doubt on that theory. This January 1, I predicted that average US inflation for the year would be below 3 percent.

Well, in February, core inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index grew by 5.4 percent, and seems to still be heating up. That’s my preferred metric, but data released on April 12 showed that the more widely publicized consumer price index grew by 8.5 percent compared to the year before, the highest rate in four decades. The US would be very lucky to keep inflation below 5 percent for the year at this point; my prediction of 3 percent looks, three months later, ridiculous.
caltrek: As a whole, including that remainder of the article not included in the introduction above, a fairly good explanation. Still missing is the fact that the corporate elite are most able to take advantage of the situation. So, all of the other explanations offered just provide smoke to obscure the fact that they gain the most from rising prices. They will always charge what they can get away with. A society in great flux gives them more to work with in understanding exactly what it is they can get away with.
Last edited by caltrek on Thu Apr 21, 2022 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
weatheriscool
Posts: 12950
Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm

Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Jobless claims: Another 184,000 Americans filed new claims last week

Emily McCormick · Reporter

Weekly unemployment claims held near their lowest levels since the 1960s, with a strong labor market and improving levels of unemployment remaining a bright spot in the U.S. economy.

The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

-- Initial jobless claims, week ended April 16: 184,000 vs. 180,000 expected, 185,000 during prior week

-- Continuing claims, week ended April 9: 1.417 million vs. 1.459 million expected, 1.475 million during prior week

First-time filings for unemployment benefits remained below 200,000 for a ninth consecutive week. As of last week, the four-week moving average for new jobless claims, which smooths out volatility in the weekly data, stood at just 177,250. Throughout 2019 before the pandemic, new claims averaged about 218,000 per week. And last month, jobless claims reached their lowest level since 1968 at 166,000.

Continuing claims, which tally the number of Americans collecting benefits for multiple weeks, have also declined sharply to reach multi-decade lows. These came in below 1.5 million for a back-to-back week to reach their lowest level since 1970.

The weekly jobless claims data have served as an ongoing reminder of the tightness in the current labor market. Job openings have far outpaced new hires — a phenomenon many companies this quarterly earnings season have been quick to acknowledge.
{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-j ... 08572.html
Post Reply