Economic and jobs news thread

weatheriscool
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Retail sales jump 3% in January, smashing expectations despite inflation increase
Source: CNBC

Sales at retailers rose far more than expected in January as consumers persevered despite rising inflation pressures. Advance retail sales for the month increased 3%, compared with expectations for a rise of 1.9%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Excluding autos, sales increased 2.3%, according to the report, which is not adjusted for inflation. The ex-autos estimate was for a gain of 0.9%.

Food services and drinking places surged 7.2% to lead all major categories. Motor vehicle and parts dealers increased 5.9%,while furniture and home furnishing stores saw an increase of 4.4%. Even with a 2.4% increase in gas prices, receipts at service stations were flat. Online retailers saw an increase of 1.3%, while electronics and appliances stores increased 3.5%. No categories saw a decline, following a December in which sales fell 1.1%.

Markets moved lower following the news, with futures connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average pointing to a slightly negative open on Wall Street. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales increased 6.4%, which was exactly in line with the consumer price index move reported Tuesday.

Inflation as gauged by the consumer price index accelerated by 0.5% in the first month of the year, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The sales report indicates that even with elevated inflation pressures, consumers continued to spend. The report comes as the Federal Reserve is grappling with rising prices that appear to be abating but are still well ahead of the central bank’s 2% annual target.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/15/retail- ... 2023-.html
weatheriscool
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Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in January, more than expected, fueling inflation increase
Source: CNBC
Inflation rebounded in January at the wholesale level, as producer prices rose more than expected to start the year, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The producer price index, a measure of what raw goods fetch on the open market, rose 0.7% for the month, the biggest increase since June. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a rise of 0.4% after a decline of 0.2% in December.

Excluding food and energy, the core PPI increased 0.5%, compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase. Core excluding trade services climbed 0.6%, against the estimate for a 0.2% rise.

On a 12-month basis, headline PPI increased 6%, still elevated but well off its 11.6% peak in March 2022.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/produce ... 2023-.html
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caltrek
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Economic Tailwind from Flush States
by Neil Irwin
February 21, 2023

Introduction:
(Axios) State and local governments are facing very different circumstances than they did during the yearslong slog that followed the Great Recession: They are swimming in cash.

Why it matters: State lawmakers have begun to hash out budget plans for this fiscal year. There are exceptions — California being one — but for the most part, state coffers are fat and generally finances are in good shape. That enables state-level spending to help keep growth humming.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell acknowledged this tailwind as one reason why the economy will continue to grow this year.
  • "State and local governments are really flush these days ... and many of them are considering tax cuts or even sending checks," Powell said at a press conference earlier this month.
By the numbers: In nominal dollars, states' total balances — a tally of rainy day funds and other reserves — have roughly tripled over the past two years, according to a report by the National Association of State Budget Officers released last month.
Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2023/02/21/econo ... sh-states
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-Joe Hill
weatheriscool
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US home sales fell again in January; prices edged higher
Source: AP

By ALEX VEIGA an hour ago
LOS ANGELES (AP) — The nation’s housing slump dragged on into January as home sales fell for the 12th consecutive month to the slowest pace in more than a dozen years.

The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that existing U.S. home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million properties last month. That’s the slowest annual pace since October 2010, when the housing market was still reeling from the 2008 foreclosure crisis.

January’s sales cratered by nearly 37% from a year earlier and slipped 0.7% from December. Economists had projected a modest monthly rise in sales, according to FactSet.

The median U.S. home price edged up 1.3% from January last year to $359,000. That’s the slowest annual increase in home prices since February 2012. The median home price is down around 13% since it peaked in June last year.
Read more: https://apnews.com/article/national-ass ... 92c474d748
weatheriscool
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Key Fed inflation measure rose 0.6% in January, more than expected
Source: CNBC
A measure the Federal Reserve watches closely to gauge inflation rose more than expected in January, indicating the central bank has more work to do to bring down prices.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 0.6% for the month, and was up 4.7% from a year ago, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Wall Street had been expecting respective readings of 0.5% and 4.4%. Including the volatile food and energy components, headline inflation increased 0.6% and 5.4% respectively.

Markets fell following the report, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average off more than 300 points. Consumer spending also rose more than expected as prices increased, jumping 1.8% for the month vs. the estimate for 1.4%. Personal income rose 1.4%, higher than the 1.2% estimate. The personal saving rate increased, rising to 4.7%.

All of the numbers suggest inflation accelerated to start the new year, putting the Fed in a position where it likely will continue to raise interest rates. The central bank has pushed benchmark rates up by 4.5% since March 2022 as inflation hit its highest level in some 41 years.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/key-fed ... ected.html
weatheriscool
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Private payrolls rose by 242,000 in February, better than expected, ADP says

PUBLISHED WED, MAR 8 2023 8:15 AM EST UPDATED 47 MIN AGO

Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528 https://facebook.com/jeff.cox.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM https://twitter.com/JeffCoxCNBCcom

KEY POINTS
-- Private payrolls in February increased by 242,000 versus the estimate for 205,000 and above the 119,000 in January, ADP reported Wednesday.
-- Leisure and hospitality led job growth with 83,000 additions. Financial activities added 62,000 while manufacturing showed a 43,000 gain.
-- The ADP report comes two days before the government’s nonfarm payrolls count, which is expected to show a gain of 225,000.

Companies added jobs at a brisk pace in February as the U.S. labor market kept humming, payroll services firm ADP reported Wednesday.

Private payrolls increased by 242,000 for the month, ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 205,000 and well above the upwardly revised 119,000 jobs gain, from 106,000, in January. (1)

Wage growth decelerated slightly, with those remaining in their jobs seeing a 7.2% annual increase, down 0.1 percentage point from a month ago. Job changers saw growth of 14.3%, compared with 14.9% in January.

{snip}

The ADP report serves as a precursor to the more closely followed nonfarm payrolls report the Labor Department is schedule to release Friday. ... Though ADP last year entered into a new partnership with Stanford University, the two counts still have differed by large margins in some cases. For instance, the Labor Department estimated payrolls rose 517,000 in January, more than four times what ADP reported. (2)

{snip}
(1) https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/adp-job ... 2022-.html
weatheriscool
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US weekly jobless claims post largest increase in five months

Source: Reuters
WASHINGTON, March 9 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased by the most in five months last week, but the underlying trend remained consistent with a tight labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended March 4, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was the largest increase since October and lifted claims to a two-month high.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 195,000 claims for the latest week. The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out weekly fluctuations, climbed 4,000 to 197,000 last week.

"It is not clear that last week's rise is signaling a shift in the trend," said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York. "We do expect demand for workers to ease as the effects of restrictive monetary policy take hold and spread more broadly through the economy. But for now, layoffs remain low and job growth is strong, given companies appear to be hoarding workers."
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-w ... 023-03-09/
weatheriscool
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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U.S. economy added 311,000 jobs in February, exceeding expectations as jobs growth stays hot
Job creation decelerated in February but was still stronger than expected despite Federal Reserve efforts to slow the economy and bring down inflation.

Read More:
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/busine ... -rcna74329
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Yuli Ban
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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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