Economic and jobs news thread

weatheriscool
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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caltrek wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:19 pm Hopes for a Turnaround Remain Even as Markets Decline Again for Back End of 2022
by Nick Rummel
July 1, 2022

Introduction:
MANHATTAN (Courthouse News) — The year so far hasn’t been pleasant for Wall Street, which has lost considerable ground as inflation woes and recession worries have taken hold. For the first day of July at least, markets pulled out a win.

Since the start of the year, all three U.S. indices have lost a tremendous amount of value and had their worst starting six months in more than 50 years. The S&P 500, for example, is down more than 21% since the beginning of the year, its worst first-half outing since 1970. Things are even worse for the Nasdaq, which has shed 30% of its value, that index’s worst outing since the dot-com bubble burst.

The losses so far in 2022 have all but wiped out the gains seen in 2021. Last year, the Dow gained about 5,700 points. So far this year, however, it has lost 5,224 points. The S&P 500 gained about 1,000 points in 2021, but it has declined 953 points to date in 2022. The Nasdaq netted 2,686 points last year only to shed a whopping 4,725 points so far this year.
Conclusion:
On Tuesday, the consumer confidence survey released by The Conference Board fell for a second consecutive month to 98.7 points in June, its lowest reading since early 2021. Expectations are now well below 80 on the survey, which indicates consumers expect weak growth during the second half of this year and a possible recession by 2023.

“Right now we are at an inflection point in the economy, where actual spending and economic activity is still positive,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at the Independent Advisor Alliance, said after the survey was released on Tuesday. “If we are able to avoid a recession then the stock market is fairly valued. However, if we do go into recession then we would expect the lows for the year haven’t been hit yet.”
Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/hopes-f ... -of-2022/
Well, the post I posted above kind of deflates this hope.
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caltrek
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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U.S. Adds 372,000 Jobs as Labor Market Stays Robust
by Courtenay Brown
July 8, 2022

Introduction:
(Axios) The U.S. economy added 372,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate held at 3.6%, close to the lowest level in a half-century, the government said on Friday.

Why it matters: Jobs growth remains healthy, even as the Federal Reserve tries to slam the brakes on the economy to contain decades-high inflation.
Further Extract:
The backdrop: There has been a spate of companies announcing layoffs, rescinding job offers and pausing hiring, though these developments have largely been concentrated in sectors like housing and technology.

• The Fed, meanwhile, delivered its biggest interest rate hike since 1994 last month — the latest move in its aggressive bid to chill the economy and the labor market to choke off inflation.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/07/08/jobs-report-june
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funkervogt
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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Harvard economist Ken Rogoff says a U.S. recession is almost inevitable, and blames the Federal Reserve's decisions.
"[The Fed] would have to be very lucky," Rogoff told CNN's Christine Romans on Early Start. "They have to decide: Do they have to have inflation get down quickly, or are they going to throw us into a recession? I think they are saying that they will get inflation down. I think they will blink,"
Rogoff said he thinks the Fed will "blink" and slow down aggressive rate hikes.
The Harvard University economics professor said he was "angry" about what is happening with the economy.
"I don't think this had to happen. We stepped on the gas pedal for too long and it was too much stimulus too late. I am sympathetic to all the goals, but the stimulus, they kept on going too long and they didn't calibrate it," Rogoff said.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/08/economy/ ... index.html
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joe00uk
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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Yeah, we're really at the point where either we can endure a severe recession in the short term or keep persisting with stagflation forever. The more unaffordable capital we shed in this crisis, the longer the following period of relative stability can be.
weatheriscool
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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joe00uk wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:55 pm Yeah, we're really at the point where either we can endure a severe recession in the short term or keep persisting with stagflation forever. The more unaffordable capital we shed in this crisis, the longer the following period of relative stability can be.
Either choices sucks! We need a plan to people to work, to lower the cost of goods and to compete in a serious way.
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caltrek
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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weatheriscool wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:25 pm
joe00uk wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:55 pm Yeah, we're really at the point where either we can endure a severe recession in the short term or keep persisting with stagflation forever. The more unaffordable capital we shed in this crisis, the longer the following period of relative stability can be.
Either choices sucks! We need a plan to people to work, to lower the cost of goods and to compete in a serious way.
We have a plan. It is called Build Back Better and has been blocked by Republicans and conservative Democrats from being implemented.
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caltrek
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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Data Shows Who Has Been Hit the Hardest in the Great Tech Layoff Wave
by Natasha Mascarenhas
July 9, 2022

Introduction:
(TechCrunch) As Q2 venture capital data starts to come out, it’s clear that there’s a difference between how the startup market is acting and how it actually feels. Sure, capital has slowed, but at least within the United States, the numbers aren’t as damning as expected.

The numbers — which I’d recommend you check out for yourselves — give a healthy dose of perspective during a tough time in tech. It’s a weird dissonance: Regardless of how much capital is out there, it’s clear that startups across all sectors and stages are still reacting to macroeconomic worries.

So, this week’s layoff column is going to be all about contextualizing that dissonance: We have fresh data, courtesy of Trueup, that gives us some color on who has been hit the hardest, both in terms of institutions and sectors, from the great tech layoff.

Trueup, a tech recruitment platform that tracks layoffs, claims that over 117 unicorns have announced layoffs since the start of 2022. Of that cohort, the sector with the most layoffs is fintech, followed by crypto and real estate.

Notable fintech layoffs in the recent weeks include Amount, which cut 18% of staff after landing a $1 billion valuation just one year prior, MainStreet, which cut 30% of staff weeks before pursuing a potential recapitalization, On Deck, which cut 25% and scaled back its accelerator program and Klarna, which cut 10% of its workforce before seeking funding at a lower valuation.
Read more here: https://techcrunch.com/2022/07/09/data ... f-wave/
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caltrek
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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The Bull Case for Startups in the Back Half of 2022
by Alex Wilhelm
July 10, 2022

Introduction:
(TechCrunch) Are startups really in danger of suffering a protracted, painful slowdown?

With half the year now behind us, the gathering clouds for startups around the world don’t appear to have broken into storms, leaving us wondering if the market is really that bad today for venture fundraising, and therefore startup health.

There are other positive factors to consider: Employment growth in the critical U.S. market remains strong, the value of software stocks may have bottomed out, many startups are hitting plan and there’s plenty of dry powder in the market looking for a deal. Could we be set up for an H2 2022 startup recovery?

We’re not ready to make a formal prediction, but data and certain market dynamics could put startups in a pretty OK position in the back half of the year. Let’s talk about the bull case for startups for the rest of 2022.
Read more here: https://techcrunch.com/2022/07/10/th ... -of-2022/
Don't mourn, organize.

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weatheriscool
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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June jobs report: Payrolls rise by 372,000 as unemployment holds at 3.6%
Source: Yahoo! Finance

The U.S. labor market remained strong in June, even as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary conditions and some companies warned of layoffs. The Labor Department released its latest monthly jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Non-farm payrolls: +372,000 vs. +268,000 expected

Unemployment rate: 3.6% vs. 3.6% expected

Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.3% vs. +0.3% expected

Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +5.1% vs. +5.0% expected


In the previous jobs report, U.S. payrolls rose by 390,000 in May, while the unemployment rate held at a steady 3.6%. Prior to June and May's releases, the U.S. economy had added at least 400,000 jobs each month over the last year, bringing employment within 1% of pre-pandemic levels. Although employment growth is showing signs of abating, monthly figures remain robust on a historical basis -- monthly payroll averaged about 164,000 per month in 2019.

The Labor Department's June report comes as investors worry about rising costs associated with inflation and higher interest rates, raising the specter of a potential recession hitting the labor market.
Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/june-job ... 28954.html
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caltrek
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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Still want to vote for the Republicans because of inflation?

Commerce Secretary Raimondo Exposes Senator McConnell’s Blockade Against Lower Prices

July 10, 2022

Introduction:
(The White House) Speaking with George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s This Week, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo pointed to legislation in Congress to build domestic manufacturing of semiconductor chips as a concrete step that needs to be taken to bring down prices for the American people. This legislation would create thousands of good-paying jobs and address the chips shortage that has driven prices higher on cars and countless other products. As the Secretary noted, Senator McConnell is now attempting to hold that legislation hostage to block another crucial effort to lower prices on prescription drugs for the American people.

The Secretary also noted that there are profound national security implications in not addressing the chips shortage, saying “He’s playing politics with our national security and it’s time for Congress to do its job on both of those dimensions.”

STEPHANOPOULOS: …Is there anything more the President can do to combat inflation that he’s not doing now?

RAIMONDO: Well, one of the things that Ro Khanna pointed out in that piece is that Congress needs to pass the CHIPS Act. There’s a bill right now before Congress which Ro Khanna supports, President Biden supports, which would increase the domestic supply of semiconductors and also start a supply chain office in the Department of Commerce. That has to pass. Has to pass now. Not in six months from now, now. It’s bipartisan.

Mitch McConnell just threw a wrench in that about a week ago, saying that he wasn’t going to allow Republicans to move on that unless we move down reconciliation. That’s a perfect example, George, of increasing supply. We have inflation now because of lack of supply. And let’s increase supply.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But as you point out, Madam Secretary, Mitch McConnell said it’s not going anywhere as long as the President continues to push a budget reconciliation bill. So doesn’t that mean the CHIPS bill is dead?

RAIMONDO: It shouldn’t be dead. Why can’t we do both? What’s in that reconciliation bill? Allowing Medicare to negotiate for drug prices. What will that do? Bring down the prices of medicine for the average American consumer.

So the — again, the President wakes up every day pushing us and his team and Congress, what more can we do to bring down prices? So let’s bring down prescription drug prices, so that people feel that when they go to the drugstore and also let’s pass the CHIPS Act to bring down the prices of chips, which will bring down the price of pretty much everything you buy, because everything includes chips.

It’s a false choice. He’s playing politics with our national security and it’s time for Congress to do its job on both of those dimensions.
Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-ro ... prices/

If you prefer the video version:

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