Economic and jobs news thread

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Yuli Ban
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by Yuli Ban »

China’s economy looks especially vulnerable to the spread of Omicron
Since the end of May, China has recorded 7,728 covid-19 infections. America has recorded 15.2m. And yet China’s curbs on movement and gathering have been tighter, especially near outbreaks (see chart 1). Its policy of “zero tolerance” towards covid-19 also entails limited tolerance for international travel. It requires visitors to endure a quarantine of at least 14 days in an assigned hotel. The number of mainlanders crossing the border has dropped by 99%, according to Wind, a data provider.


These restrictions have stopped previous variants from spreading. But periodic local lockdowns have also depressed consumption, especially of services like catering. And the restrictions on cross-border travel will inflict unseen damage on innovation. Cutting business-travel spending in half is as bad for a country’s productivity as cutting r&d spending by a quarter, according to one study by Mariacristina Piva of the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in Milan and her co-authors.

If the Omicron variant is more infectious than other strains, it will increase the likelihood of covid-19 outbreaks in China, leading to more frequent lockdowns. If the restrictions were as severe as those China briefly imposed in mid-August, when it was fighting an outbreak that began in the city of Nanjing, the toll on growth could be considerable. If imposed for an entire quarter, the curbs could subtract almost $130bn from China’s gdp, according to our calculations based on a model of lockdowns by Goldman Sachs, a bank—equivalent to around 3% of quarterly output.

Omicron is not the only threat to China’s economy. Even before its emergence, most forecasters thought that China’s growth would slow to 4.5-5.5% next year, as a crackdown on private business and a property slowdown bite.
Edit: Ayyy, 2112 posts. Rush number.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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erowind
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by erowind »

At the end of the day though, totalitarianism in China aside, I think that the economic damage caused bu lockdowns there will be much less than the massive economic damage China would face if it didn’t lockdown properly.
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caltrek
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by caltrek »

Meanwhile, on the inflation front back in the U.S.A.:

Blame Corporate Greed for Inflation
by Sarah Baron
December 1, 2021

https://otherwords.org/blame-corporate- ... inflation/

Introduction:
(Other Words) With vaccination rates on the rise, Americans are hoping for a return to some semblance of normalcy this holiday season. Unfortunately, as people start traveling more and buying holiday gifts, we’re facing supply chain disruptions and rising costs, from gas to groceries.

Recent polling shows that 92 percent of Americans across party lines are concerned about rising inflation, especially when it comes to groceries and gas prices. The top concern for 89 percent of those surveyed is the rising cost of groceries, where it’s harder for families to cut costs.

It would be easy to blame President Biden, but that’s just not the case. In fact, wages have increased more in the last three months than they have in the past 20 years, and millions of Americans are back to work due to his administration’s successes.

The truth is big corporations and their ultra-rich CEOs are exploiting consumers.

Big corporations have been making record profits during the pandemic. And in a year when the majority of people struggled to get by, CEOs have only gotten richer. They’ve taken every opportunity to further pad their own pockets.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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caltrek
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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The One Percent Move Report- What Happened in the Markets?
December 2, 2021

https://www.morganstanley.com/content/m ... e-20211202

Introduction:
(Morgan Stanley)
  • US stocks traded higher on Thursday as the S&P 500 gained 1.4% to close at 4,577. With the rally, the index is now up 21.9% year to date.
  • The back and forth trading action in US equity markets continues, with the major averages rebounding on Thursday following back-to-back declines in the prior two sessions. The S&P 500 has now had five straight sessions of greater than 1% moves, the longest such streak in more than a year. Volatility has picked up as markets grapple with the newfound risks related to the Omicron variant as well as speculation around a potential hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve. While cyclical sectors have largely lagged recently, on Thursday cyclicals and travel-oriented equities led the market higher.Treasury bonds also sold off across the curve as yields moved higher. Looking ahead, markets will focus on continued Omicron developments and economic data will be back in focus with Friday's November non-farm payrolls release.
  • All 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher on the session, with Industrials (+2.9%) and Energy (+2.9%) outperforming the broader market, while Consumer Staples (+0.8%) and Health Care (+0.4%) lagged.
  • Rates were higher across the curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 1.43% as of the 4 p.m. equity market close. Gold was modestly lower on the day while WTI was higher at $67 per barrel. The US Dollar was modestly stronger on the trading session, as measured by the US Dollar index.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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wjfox
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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weatheriscool
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by weatheriscool »

U.S. economy adds just 210,000 jobs in November
Source: Washington Post
The U.S. economy added just 210,000 jobs in November, a disappointing month of growth that came as coronavirus cases began to rise in many parts of the country.Yet, the unemployment rate still dropped to 4.2 percent, from 4.6 percent.

October's strong report had raised hopes about a lengthy period of sustained growth, but coronavirus cases began rising the week that the surveys were taken. Supply chain issues and labor shortages remain a constraint on the economy as well. Economists had been predicting about 500,000 to 600,000 jobs for the month.

Still, economic growth has been encouraging this year so far: the country has been averaging adding more than 500,000 jobs a month, gaining back more than 5 million jobs lost in the early days of the pandemic.There have been positive signs recently as well. Weekly unemployment filings have trended steadily downward in recent months, even dipping below the pre-pandemic average to a new historical low the week before Thanksgiving.

The trade deficit in goods narrowed in October, and consumer spending increased at its fastest rate since March, according to estimates from the Commerce Department. The surveys on which the labor market data is based was taken during the second week of November, at the beginning of the recent rise in coronavirus cases, and weeks before concerns began rising about the new Omicron variant.
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ment-2021/
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Yuli Ban
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
Nanotechandmorefuture
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by Nanotechandmorefuture »

wjfox wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:09 am
WTF! It would be funny if it were not so horrifying. So much for a graduate getting it easier I guess since it looks like higher learning ain't making things easier.
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caltrek
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by caltrek »

The One Percent Move Report- What Happened in the Markets?
December 2, 2021

https://www.morganstanley.com/content/m ... e-20211207
What Happened in the Markets?
  • US stocks rallied on Tuesday as the S&P 500 gained 2.1% to close at 4,687. With the rally, the index is now up 24.8% year to date.
  • US equities traded higher for the second day in a row as markets look to recover following back-to-back weeks of declines. US stocks opened sharply higher Tuesday morning and rallied throughout most of the session with gains led by growth-oriented technology stocks that had been recent laggards; the NASDAQ 100 ended Tuesday more than 3% higher. While there has been no obvious catalyst for this week's reversal, it would appear sentiment around Omicron is improving and may be driving markets higher. To that end, while too early to draw any conclusions, early data out of South Africa seems to suggest it is possible that while Omicron may be more transmissible than prior iterations of the virus, it may not lead to as severe outcomes; expect more conclusive data surrounding the risks posed by Omicron in the coming days and weeks.
  • All 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher on the session, with Information Technology (+3.5%) and Consumer Discretionary (+2.4%) outperforming the broader market, while Utilities (+0.8%) and Consumer Staples (+0.2%) lagged.
  • Rates were higher across the curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 1.45% as of the 4 p.m. equity market close. Gold was modestly higher on the day while WTI was also higher at nearly $72 per barrel. The US dollar was modestly weaker on the trading session, as measured by the US Dollar Index.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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caltrek
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

Post by caltrek »

Economic News Release

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Introduction:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics-Consumer Price Index Summary

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until
8:30 a.m. (ET) December 10, 2021 USDL-21-2101

Technical information: (202) 691-7000 • cpi_info@bls.govwww.bls.gov/cpi
Media Contact: (202) 691-5902 • PressOffice@bls.gov

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – NOVEMBER 2021

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent
in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in October,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months,
the all items index increased 6.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase was the result of broad
increases in most component indexes, similar to last month. The indexes for
gasoline, shelter, food, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles were among the
larger contributors. The energy index rose 3.5 percent in November as the
gasoline index increased 6.1 percent and the other major energy component
indexes also rose. The food index increased 0.7 percent as the index for food
at home rose 0.8 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in November
following a 0.6-percent increase in October. Along with shelter, used cars and
trucks, and new vehicles, the indexes for household furnishings and operations,
apparel, and airline fares were among those that increased. The indexes for
motor vehicle insurance, recreation, and communication all declined in November.

The all items index rose 6.8 percent for the 12 months ending October, the
largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982. The index for all
items less food and energy rose 4.9 percent over the last 12 months, while the
energy index rose 33.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased
6.1 percent. These changes are the largest 12-month increases in at least 13
years in the respective series.

Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average

Seasonally adjusted changes from
preceding month
Un-
adjusted
12-mos.
May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. ended
2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 Nov.
2021

All items.................. .6 .9 .5 .3 .4 .9 .8 6.8
Food...................... .4 .8 .7 .4 .9 .9 .7 6.1
Food at home............. .4 .8 .7 .4 1.2 1.0 .8 6.4
Food away from home (1).. .6 .7 .8 .4 .5 .8 .6 5.8
Energy.................... .0 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.3 4.8 3.5 33.3
Energy commodities....... -.6 2.6 2.3 2.7 1.3 6.2 5.9 57.5
Gasoline (all types).... -.7 2.5 2.4 2.8 1.2 6.1 6.1 58.1
Fuel oil (1)............ 2.1 2.9 .6 -2.1 3.9 12.3 3.5 59.3
Energy services.......... .7 .2 .8 1.1 1.2 3.0 .3 10.7
Electricity............. .3 -.3 .4 1.0 .8 1.8 .3 6.5
Utility (piped) gas
service.............. 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.6 2.7 6.6 .6 25.1
All items less food and
energy................. .7 .9 .3 .1 .2 .6 .5 4.9
Commodities less food and
energy commodities.... 1.8 2.2 .5 .3 .2 1.0 .9 9.4
New vehicles............ 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.1 11.1
Used cars and trucks.... 7.3 10.5 .2 -1.5 -.7 2.5 2.5 31.4
Apparel................. 1.2 .7 .0 .4 -1.1 .0 1.3 5.0
Medical care
commodities (1)...... .0 -.4 .2 -.2 .3 .6 .1 .2
Services less energy
services.............. .4 .4 .3 .0 .2 .4 .4 3.4
Shelter................. .3 .5 .4 .2 .4 .5 .5 3.8
Transportation services 1.5 1.5 -1.1 -2.3 -.5 .4 .7 3.9
Medical care services... -.1 .0 .3 .3 -.1 .5 .3 2.1

1 Not seasonally adjusted.


Food

The food index increased 0.7 percent in November after rising 0.9 percent in both
September and October. The food at home index increased 0.8 percent in November as
all six major grocery store food group indexes rose; this was the third consecutive
month that all six increased. The indexes for other food at home and for fruits and
vegetables both increased 1.0 percent in November. The index for meats, poultry,
fish, and eggs rose 0.9 percent in November. Within this group, the index for pork
rose sharply, increasing 2.2 percent, while the index for eggs declined in November,
falling 2.7 percent.

The cereals and bakery products index increased 0.8 percent in November after larger
increases in September and October. The index for dairy and related products
increased 0.2 percent over the month, the same increase as the prior month. The
index for nonalcoholic beverages also rose 0.2 percent, its smallest monthly
increase in the last 6 months.

The food away from home index rose 0.6 percent in November following a 0.8-percent
increase the prior month. The index for limited service meals continued to rise
sharply, increasing 1.0 percent over the month, while the index for full service
meals rose 0.4 percent in November.

The food at home index rose 6.4 percent over the past 12 months, the largest
12-month increase since the period ending December 2008. All of the six major
grocery store food group indexes increased over the period. The index for meats,
poultry, fish, and eggs increased 12.8 percent, with the index for beef rising
20.9 percent. The index for dairy and related products posted the smallest increase,
rising 1.6 percent over the last 12 months. The remaining major grocery store food
group indexes posted increases ranging from 4.0 percent (fruits and vegetables) to
5.7 percent (other food at home).

The index for food away from home rose 5.8 percent over the last year, the largest
12-month increase since the period ending January 1982. The index for limited
service meals rose 7.9 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for full
service meals rose 6.0 percent. The index for food at employee sites and schools,
in contrast, declined 44.9 percent over the past 12 months.

Energy

The energy index rose 3.5 percent in November after rising 4.8 percent in October.
The gasoline index rose 6.1 percent in November, the same increase as the prior
month. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 2.8 percent in November.)
The electricity index increased 0.3 percent in November after rising 1.8 percent in
October. The index for natural gas rose 0.6 percent in November following a
6.6-percent increase the prior month.

The energy index rose 33.3 percent over the past 12 months with all major energy
component indexes increasing sharply. The gasoline index rose 58.1 percent over the
last year, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 1980. The
index for natural gas rose 25.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the electricity
index rose 6.5 percent.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in November. The
shelter index increased 0.5 percent over the month, as the indexes for rent and
owners’ equivalent rent both rose 0.4 percent; these increases were the same as in
October. The index for lodging away from home rose 2.9 percent in November after
rising 1.4 percent in October. Vehicle indexes also continued to rise in November.
The index for used cars and trucks rose 2.5 percent over the month, the same
increase as in October. The index for new vehicles rose 1.1 percent in November
after a 1.4-percent increase in October.

The index for household furnishings and operations increased in November, rising
0.8 percent, the same increase as in October. The apparel index rose 1.3 percent
in November after being unchanged in October. The index for airline fares turned
up in November, rising 4.7 percent after declining in recent months.

The medical care index also rose in November, increasing 0.2 percent after rising
0.5 percent in October. The index for physicians’ services rose 0.4 percent, and
the index for prescription drugs increased 0.3 percent, while the index for hospital
services declined 0.3 percent.

A few indexes declined in November. The motor vehicle insurance index fell
0.8 percent over the month after being unchanged in October. The recreation index
fell 0.2 percent in November after rising in each of the last 9 months. The index
for communication also declined 0.2 percent in November.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.9 percent over the past
12 months, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1991. The
index for used cars and trucks rose 31.4 percent over the last 12 months, and the
index for new vehicles rose 11.1 percent. The shelter index rose 3.8 percent, the
largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 2007. The index for medical
care increased 1.7 percent over the last year.

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 6.8 percent over
the last 12 months to an index level of 277.948 (1982-84=100). For the month, the
index increased 0.5 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
increased 7.6 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 273.042
(1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.5 percent prior to seasonal
adjustment.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased
6.7 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.5 percent
on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past
10 to 12 months are subject to revision.
_______________
The Consumer Price Index for December 2021 is scheduled to be released on Wednesday,
January 12, 2022 at 8:30 a.m. (ET).
caltrek's comment: I'm thinking for future updates we can just give the link. At any rate, being a government news release, length restrictions due to copyright considerations do not apply.

Also, at this link you can view a line graph provided courtesy of Axios:

https://www.axios.com/consumer-price-in ... 77394.html
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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