Economic and jobs news thread

weatheriscool
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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Dow slides nearly 1,000 points for worst day since October 2020

The S&P 500 erases 2.8 percent and the Nasdaq 2.6 percent amid signals the Fed will raise rates at a more aggressive clip

By Aaron Gregg
Today at 1:52 p.m. EDT | Updated today at 4:08 p.m. EDT
Stocks tanked Friday — with the Dow tumbling nearly 1,000 points — as investors absorbed increasingly hawkish signals the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at a more aggressive clip.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 981.36 points, or 2.8 percent, to end at 33,811.40 and mark its fourth-consecutive weekly decline. The broader S&P 500 index shed 121.88 points, or 2.8 percent, to settle at 4,271.78, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 335.36 points, or 2.6 percent, to close at 12,839.29.

It was the Dow’s worst day since October 2020, according to MarketWatch, bringing the blue-chip index 1.9 percent lower for the week. It’s down about 7 percent year to date. ... The S&P 500 fell 2.8 percent this week and has shed 10.4 percent since the start of the year. Nasdaq slumped 3.8 percent this week and has lost 17.9 percent year to date.
[Five charts explaining why inflation is at a 40-year high]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... on-charts/
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caltrek
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The One Percent Move Report for April 22, 2022

https://www.morganstanley.com/content/m ... e-20220422

Introduction:
(Morgan Stanley) What Happened in the Markets?
  • The S&P (Standard and Poors) 500 declined 2.8% on Friday to close at 4,272. The index is now down 10.4% year to date. Additionally, 40% of the index's constituents are down more than 20% from 52-week highs. Furthermore, on average, the S&P 500 constituents are down 18% from 52-week highs.
...
  • All 11 S&P 500 sectors were lower, with Consumer Staples (-1.6%) and Utilities (-1.7%) outperforming the broad market while Materials (-3.7%) and Health Care (-3.6%) lagged.
  • As of the 4pm equity market close: the Nasdaq 100 dipped 2.6%, the Russell 2000 index fell 2.6%, the 10-year Treasury yield was 2.89%, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil was down 2.0% to $101.7 per barrel, gold traded below $1,933 per ounce, and the US Dollar Index strengthened past $101.
What to Watch Going Forward:

Monetary Policy: Hawkish global central bank commentary continued today. Futures markets are currently pricing a 100% chance of a 50 basis point hike for both the May and June FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings. Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell spoke of how the Fed's March meeting minutes showed that officials backed the potential for a half-a-percentage rate hike and stated "50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting." Regarding the Fed's balance sheet, the March FOMC meeting minutes that were released earlier this month showed that the committee was generally in agreement on reducing the size of the balance sheet by up to $95 billion per month. The FOMC had not yet decided on when to commence balance sheet reduction, but a formal announcement could come as soon as the next FOMC meeting in May. MS & Co. Chief US Economist Ellen Zentner currently expects two 50-basis-point hikes at both the May and June meetings. In addition, on Thursday, ECB officials mentioned the potential for three total hikes in 2022, and an end to its QE (Quantitative Easing) program in July.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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caltrek
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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'Widespread Debt Cancellation is Needed Immediately': Half of all Student Borrowers in U.S. Unable to Afford a Single Payment
by Jake Johnson
April 21, 2022

https://www.alternet.org/2022/04/half-s ... s-payment/

Introduction:
(Alternet) A survey out Thursday shows that more than half of student loan borrowers in the United States say they would not currently be able to make a single monthly debt payment if they were required to, a finding that comes amid mounting calls for universal student debt cancellation.

The new poll, conducted this month by the firm Payitoff, also finds that 64% of U.S. student loan borrowers say they "would not make a payment until they are legally required to do so." The average monthly student loan payment in the U.S. is $460, according to the Education Data Initiative.

The survey results were released weeks after the Biden administration announced its fourth extension of the federal student loan repayment moratorium, a freeze that has been in place since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.

While advocates and progressive lawmakers welcomed the extension—which will remain in effect through August 31—they argued that continuing to push the end of the moratorium back several months at a time leaves tens of millions of borrowers in limbo and does nothing to ensure lasting relief.

"Pausing a crisis doesn't end it," the Debt Collective said earlier this month.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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caltrek
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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One Percent Move Report for April 26, 2022

https://www.morganstanley.com/content/m ... e-20220426
(Morgan Stanley)

What Happened in the Markets?

• The S&P 500 declined 2.8% on Tuesday to close at 4,175. The index is now down 12.4% year to date.

• US stocks were unable to build on Monday afternoon's strong intraday reversal as the S&P 500 fell 2.8% Tuesday. While interest rates were lower across the curve today, mega-cap growth and technology stocks led the decline; perhaps investors decided to take some risk off the table ahead of the busiest week of earnings which includes a number of the large cap technology names. In today's economic data, home prices surprised to the upside while consumer confidence and new home sales came in below expectations. Oil marched back above $100 per barrel, which allowed the Energy sector to outperform - it was the only S&P 500 sector recording a gain in the session, albeit modest.

• Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were lower, with Energy (+0.04%) and Utilities (-1.0%) outperforming the broad market while Information Technology (-3.7%) and Consumer Discretionary (-5.0%) lagged.

• As of the 4pm equity market close, the 10-year Treasury yield declined to 2.75%, WTI oil rallied back above $100 per barrel and gold traded above $1,900 per ounce. The US Dollar Index strengthened modestly to above $102.

What to Watch Going Forward

• Q1 Earnings: First quarter earnings season is well underway as 26% of the S&P 500 constituents have reported results thus far. 132 companies reported 1Q earnings and 130 more are anticipated by the end of next week. For the S&P 500, 81% of companies that reported have beat expectations. Blended 1Q earnings growth is running at 7.2% year-over-year including companies not yet reported, and 2.0% for companies already reported, according to FactSet. Strong earnings growth is expected from the Energy sector and a deceleration in earnings growth from the Financials, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary sectors. During 1Q22 earnings calls, investors are closely monitoring forward guidance as well as vulnerability of margins, earnings and valuations due to headwinds from higher input costs and deteriorating demand.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
weatheriscool
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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US GDP unexpectedly contracted at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q1

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, April 28, 2022, 8:31 AM · 3 min read
U.S. economic activity unexpectedly contracted in the first three months of 2022 with lingering supply chain constraints, inflation, and disruptions amid Russia's war in Ukraine weighing on growth.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its initial estimate of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

-- GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter: -1.4% vs. 1.0% expected, 6.9% in Q4

-- Personal Consumption: 2.7% vs. 3.5% expected, 2.5% in Q4

-- Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 5.2% vs. 5.5% expected, 5.0% in Q4
{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-us-gd ... 26750.html
weatheriscool
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The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge rose 5.2% in March

PUBLISHED FRI, APR 29 2022 8:33 AM EDT UPDATED 2 MIN AGO

A measure that the Federal Reserve focuses on to gauge inflation rose at a robust pace in March, likely cementing the central bank’s intention to raise interest rates by half a percentage in May. ... The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which measures costs that consumers pay across a wide swath of items and accounts for how behavior changes in response to market dynamics, increased 5.2% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

That was slightly below the 5.3% reading in February, which was the highest reading since April 1983. ... That was less than the 5.3% Dow Jones estimate. On a month-over-month basis, prices rose 0.3%, in line with the estimate. ... Including volatile food and energy prices, the PCE index accelerated by 6.6%, the fastest pace since January 1982. Headline inflation was up 0.9% from February, much faster than the previous 0.5% increase.

A separate inflation measure, the employment cost index, increased 1.4% in the first quarter from the previous period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Dow Jones estimate for that level was 1.1%. ... The index, which measures total compensation cost for nongovernment workers, was up 4.5% over the past year.

Together, the data points do little to dispel the notion that inflation is running at a much faster pace than the Fed would like. Consequently, markets widely expect a 50-basis-point increase during next week’s Federal Open Market Committee, with additional increases to follow.

{snip}
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/29/the-fed ... march.html
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caltrek
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One Per Cent Move Report (for April 28, 2022) Notes Gain in S&P and Nasdaq

https://www.morganstanley.com/content/m ... e-20220428

Introduction:
(Morgan Stanley) What Happened in the Markets?

The S&P 500 rallied 2.5% on Thursday to close at 4,288. The index is down 10% year to date. This was the largest one-day gain for the S&P 500 since March 9, 2022. The Nasdaq 100 gained 3.5% and the Russell 2000 rose 1.8%.

Every S&P 500 sector was higher today, with Information Technology (+4.0%) and Communication Services (+3.9%) outperforming the broad market while Utilities (+1.1%) and Industrials (+1.1%) lagged.

1Q22 earnings reports have been the focus this week, with better than expected results in mega-cap technology. Meanwhile, GDP disappointed this morning as net trade and inventories hit headline numbers more than anticipated.

In overseas markets: inflation was reported higher than expected in Germany; Russia cut off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria in response to European sanctions; Bank of Japan doubled down on bond buying, prompting the Yen to weaken further vs the US dollar.

As of the 4pm equity market close, the 10-year Treasury yield was range-bound, as markets await a potential 50 basis-point hike at the FOMC meeting next week (May 3-4). Additionally, WTI oil was near $105 per barrel and the US Dollar Index continues to strengthen as financial conditions tighten.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
weatheriscool
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Dow tumbles more than 900 points and the Nasdaq drops 4% on Friday to close out a brutal month
Source: CNBC

U.S. stocks sunk Friday with the Nasdaq Composite notching its worst month since 2008, as Amazon became the latest victim in April’s technology-led sell-off.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 4.2% to 12,334.64, weighed down by Amazon’s post-earnings plunge. The S&P 500 retreated by 3.6% to 4,131.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 939.18 points, or close to 2.8%, to 32,977.21.

The Nasdaq finished at a new low for 2022 and the S&P 500 did as well, with the main stock benchmark taking out its previous low in March.

Stocks closed out a dismal month as investors contended with a slew of headwinds, from the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening, rising rates, persistent inflation, Covid case spikes in China and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/stock-m ... -news.html
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Yuli Ban
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Crash, you fucker!!
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
weatheriscool
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Re: Economic and jobs news thread

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U.S. Companies Added 247,000 Jobs in April, ADP Data Show

-- Hiring was weaker than forecast, smallest gain of recovery

-- Other data suggest labor market robust ahead of Fed decision

U.S. companies added in April the fewest jobs in the pandemic recovery, underscoring the persistent challenges faced by small firms to increase headcount in a tight labor market.

Businesses' payrolls increased by 247,000 last month, after a revised 479,000 gain in March, according to ADP Research Institute data released Wednesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 383,000 advance. ... Businesses with 500 or more employees posted solid hiring gains, but those with less than 50 lost 120,000 jobs in April, the worst in two years.

"While hiring demand remains strong, labor supply shortages caused job gains to soften for both goods producers and services providers," Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said in a statement. "As the labor market tightens, small companies, with fewer than 50 employees, struggle with competition for wages amid increased costs."

The weaker-than-expected advance suggests firms are making little progress filling a record number of job openings despite recent wage increases. Many businesses still desperately want to hire more workers, but a depressed participation rate continues to limit further employment growth. ... The figures precede the government's monthly jobs report on Friday, which is currently forecast to show private payrolls increased by 390,000 in April. The ADP figures don't always follow the same pattern as the Labor Department's data.

{snip}
Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -data-show
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