Myanmar news and discussions

[weatheriscool]

Gunmen Shoot Deputy Governor of Myanmar Central Bank
by Grant Peck
April 7, 2022

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... k-83931264

Introduction:

(AP via ABC News) BANGKOK -- A deputy governor of Myanmar’s Central Bank was shot at her home on Thursday, less than a week after tough new regulations were issued ordering that foreign money held in bank accounts in the military-ruled nation must be exchanged for the local currency.

There were conflicting accounts of whether Than Than Swe, appointed to her post after the military seized power, survived the attack.

She is believed to be the most senior official associated with the military-run administration to be shot since February last year, when the army ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. The takeover triggered widespread peaceful protests that were quashed with lethal force, triggering armed resistance that some U.N. experts now characterize as civil war.

Than Than Swe was shot by two men when she opened the door to her apartment in Bahan township in Yangon, the country’s biggest city, said Thet Oo, a local official. He said she was taken to a military hospital where she was confirmed dead, but a report by the U.S. government-backed Radio Free Asia cited a military spokesman as saying she was being treated for her wounds.

That's the thing about being an oppressive military state. You will always have to fight and you'll never be loved....They don't respect their own people and that is sad.

[caltrek]

Myanmar Crisis Center Stage At US-ASEAN Summit
May 13, 2022

(Radio Free Asia via Eurasia Review) The ongoing upheaval in Myanmar took center stage on the first day of a U.S.-ASEAN Summit in Washington, as fellow bloc member Malaysia slammed the junta for refusing to engage with the country’s shadow government.

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders held a lunch meeting with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other lawmakers at the U.S. Capitol on Thursday to kick off two days of top-level meetings, which President Joe Biden hopes will bolster Washington’s ties with the bloc and increase its influence in the region.

Eight of ASEAN’s leaders made the trip to the U.S. for the summit, which marks the first time the White House extended an invitation to the group of nations in more than four decades. The Philippines declined to attend as it wraps up a presidential election this week, while Myanmar’s junta chief, Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was barred from the summit amid a brutal crackdown on opponents of his military’s Feb. 1, 2021, coup that rights groups say has claimed the lives of at least 1,835 civilians.

U.S. State Department officials instead met with the foreign minister of the National Unity Government, Myanmar’s shadow government of deposed leaders and other junta critics working to take back control of the country.

The lunch event on Capitol Hill was closed to the press, but the situation in Myanmar was front and center on Thursday, after Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah called out junta officials in a series of tweets for failing to honor their commitment to end violence in the country. Specifically, he referred to the military regime’s refusal to allow the United Nations special envoy to the country, Noeleen Heyzer, to attend an ASEAN meeting last week to coordinate humanitarian aid to Myanmar.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/13052022- ... an-summit/

[caltrek]

Role of External Powers in Keeping the Myanmar Military in Power
by P. K. Balachandran
August 1, 2022

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) The Myanmar junta is losing on the military and economic fronts. And yet, it stays in power because the major regional and global powers either pussyfoot on it or support it in one way or another, experts on the country say.

For the first time since the late 1980s, the military rulers of Myanmar executed four pro-democracy activists on July 25, triggering outrage across the democratic world. Many wondered why the junta revived a practice thought to have been abandoned long ago. Zachary Abuza, Professor at the National War College in Washington DC, and an expert on South East Asia, appears to have the answer.

In a piece published by the Indonesian website Benar News Prof. Abuza says that it was the junta’s way of announcing to the world that it is not cowed by the reverses it has been facing in its war against ethnicity-based resistance groups or by the deteriorating performance of the Myanmar economy under its tutelage. With the ground situation getting out of control, the junta needed to flex its muscles to show that it still has the chutzpah to do its worst and to challenge its opponents to do their worst.

The junta has been losing in the multi-front military operations against the Ethnic Resistance Organizations (EROs) such as the Karen Army, the Kachin Independence Army and the Karen National Liberation Army. The last two are allies of the opposition National Unity Government (NUG) led by the now incarcerated Aung San Suu Kyi. According to Abuza, about 3000 government troops have joined the rebels and fresh recruitment has dwindled.

On the economic front, the South East Asia export points out, there has been a net loss of foreign investment. China appears to be the sole investor. Exports have come down sharply. The banking system is teetering. The World Bank has said that 40% of the population is below the poverty line. The Junta was feeling cornered.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/01082022 ... analysis/

[caltrek]

Myanmar Court Convicts Suu Kyi of Vote Fraud, Adds Jail Time
by Grant Peck
September 2, 2022

Introduction:

BANGKOK (AP via Courthouse News) — A court in Myanmar on Friday sentenced ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi to three years imprisonment with labor after finding her guilty of election fraud, adding more jail time to the 17 years she is already serving for other offenses prosecuted by the military government.

The latest verdict also carries potentially significant political consequences for Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party by lending support to the government’s explicit threats to dissolve it before a new election the military has promised for 2023.

Suu Kyi’s party won the 2020 general election in a landslide victory, but the army seized power the following February and kept her from a second five-year term in office. The army contends it acted because of alleged widespread fraud in the polls though independent election observers did not find any major irregularities. Some critics of Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, who led the takeover and is now Myanmar’s top leader, believe he acted because the vote thwarted his own political ambitions.

A spokesperson for the Bangkok-based Asian Network for Free Elections, a non-partisan poll-watching group, said Friday they did not observe any election fraud.

“Domestic election observers from Myanmar also did not see that,” Amaël Vier told The Associated Press. "There were improvements to be made for sure — we were still coming from a long way behind other democracies, in Myanmar — but the claims of the junta that 25% of voters were fraudulent? This does not hold up to our scrutiny, for sure.”

Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/myanmar ... ail-time/

[caltrek]

Aggressive Myanmar Military Along Bangladesh Border: Time To Take Steps To Stop War?
by John Rozario
September , 2022

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) The world is witnessing a new level of aggression in Myanmar. However, conflicts and conflicts between the Myanmar Army and the armed Arakan Army are not new. However, the conflict between them has taken a new turn in the last few weeks. It has spread to neighboring areas including northern Rakhine, Maungdoo and Sittwe, along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has summoned the country’s ambassador in connection with the ongoing shelling in Myanmar’s Rakhine state across the Ghumdhum border in Naikxyongchari upazila of Bandarban.

He was summoned for the fourth round in connection with the death of a Rohingya teenager and injuries to several others when a mortar shell fired by the country fell on the zero line on the Bangladesh border.

On Sunday (September 18) at 11:20 a.m., two people, including Myanmar’s ambassador to Dhaka, U Aung Kyaw Mo, came to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs after receiving an urgent summons.

On August 28, two mortar shells landed in Ghumdhum area of Naikxyongchari Upazila of Bandarban, near the zero point of the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. Although no one was injured, panic spread among the residents of the border area. Since then, the sound of gunshots has been heard almost every day. Among them, the country fired from two warplanes and two fighting helicopters.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/19092022 ... war-oped/






Myanmar, also known as Burma

[caltrek]

ASEAN’s Strongest Statement To Date On Myanmar Still Falls Short
Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung. Written by Joshua Lipes.
November 17, 2022

Introduction:

(Radio Free Asia via Eurasia Review) A joint statement issued last week by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is the strongest to date on resolving member state Myanmar’s political crisis, but should have barred junta delegates from attending its meetings, Myanmar’s shadow government said Tuesday.

On Nov. 13, ASEAN wrapped up its four-day annual summit in Phnom Penh with a call on the bloc’s foreign ministers to establish a specific timeline for “concrete, practical and measurable indicators” of progress in implementing a peace plan for Myanmar.

The Five Point Consensus, agreed to in April 2021, aims to end violence and restore democracy in Myanmar following the military coup against the elected government, but more than 21 months later, the country’s civil conflict rages on and the death toll continues to climb.

The junta has largely ignored the terms of the consensus despite a chorus of calls from rights groups and NGOs for its leaders to step down from power over what they say are military atrocities in Myanmar’s remote regions and its refusal to negotiate with opposition stakeholders it labels “terrorists.”

Among those stakeholders is the shadow National Unity Government, which on Tuesday applauded ASEAN’s statement, but called for an even stronger course of action against the military regime.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/17112022 ... analysis/

[caltrek]

Myanmar: International Outrage Without Action? – Analysis
by Jan Servaes
April 17, 2023

Introduction:

(Eurasia review) February 1 marked two years since Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, launched a disastrous coup that has plunged the country into an economic slump. The State Administration Council (SAC) military junta continues to struggle to impose its rule across the country, while a coalition of activists and armed groups strenuously oppose the coup amid a spreading civil war.

Against the regime are hundreds of grassroots-level armed groups, including the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), coordinated to some extent by the parallel government of national unity (NUG), with the cooperation of a number of long-fighting ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) against successive central governments.

“Peaceful protests, including the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), continue but have lost momentum and have been relegated to the back seat of the anti-junta struggle,” reads an overview by The Diplomat. According to the author, Naw Theresa, Myanmar is “in the grip of a nationwide struggle between two groups, neither of whom are seeking a peaceful political solution.”

Other observers take a more nuanced view of the situation from a historical perspective. For example, drawing on research during Myanmar’s decade of partial civilian rule (2011-2021), Gerard McCarthy examines how the bankrupt post-socialist junta in the 1990s and 2000s brokered market reforms and forced private and non-state actors to shoulder the burden on social security.

Conclusion:

It is highly questionable whether all this will change the mind of the junta, and in particular, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing. After all, it is an open secret that Myanmar’s military leaders deeply believe in various superstitions: astrology, occultism, numerology, black magic, yadaya. Min Aung Hlaing is no exception. On April 9, he and his wife Kyu Kyu Hla released two turtles on the Coco Islands as part of yadaya, or the Burmese form of voodoo. The junta boss thus prayed for a long life.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/17042023 ... analysis/

[caltrek]

The Ongoing Ethnic Conflict In Myanmar: Implications For Indo-Pacific Region
by Aishwarya Sanjukta Roy Proma
August 10, 2023

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) The ongoing conflict in Myanmar has characteristics that extend beyond its internal boundaries, including regional and global dimensions. The ongoing violence in Myanmar has significant implications for regional peace and security, thereby impacting the economic and political interests of global powers. Consequently, its ramifications have significant consequences for the strategic struggle within the Indo-Pacific region.

The escalation of violence in Myanmar may be attributed to many significant factors stemming from geopolitical competition among key global powers. The ongoing violence in Myanmar poses a significant challenge to the strategic interests of the United States, Japan, India, Australia, and Thailand. These nations have been assisting Myanmar in its efforts toward democratic transition and socio-economic development while also actively interacting with the country on a range of matters, including counter-terrorism, human rights, commerce, and connectivity.

The ongoing war in Myanmar presents significant humanitarian and refugee issues for neighboring countries, particularly Bangladesh, where over one million Rohingya refugees are now residing. The destabilization and compromised security of the region has significant implications for its economic and political interests. This situation presents a favorable prospect for China to augment its influence and power in the region, given its prominent role as Myanmar’s primary economic partner and political ally.

The violence in Myanmar has significantly and adversely affected its economy. The ongoing battle has resulted in a significant economic downturn, with projections indicating a contraction of around 18% in 2021. The ongoing conflict has resulted in a significant increase in inflation rates and a devaluation of the national currency, leading to a decline in the buying power and savings of the population.

In the first half of 2021, there was a decrease of 33% in exports and a decrease of 38% in imports. In the same time frame, there was a significant decline of 76% in foreign direct investment.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/10082023 ... nalysis/


caltrek's comments: In the old forum, when the coup first became apparent, there were those who commented upon it in terms of being part of a larger conflict and struggle between China and the U.S. In that portion of the article not cited above, Ms. Proma develops the theme that the coup can be thought of in terms of a broader struggle between India and China.

We keep forgetting that the world is more than just the U.S. and everybody else. When it comes to issues like China, there are many with shared interests. So, a decline in U.S. influence and hegemony is complicated by opportunities for continued and even enhanced diplomatic and even military cooperation. In Myanmar (or Burma as some prefer to call it), such a coalition has yet to achieve success, yet the struggle continues such that it is also a little premature to declare China a "winner." Also, as suggested by the article, the leaders of the coup are acting first and foremost to enhance and extend their own power, and not as puppets of any particular power outside of the boundaries of that country.

[caltrek]

^^^Related to whether the coup should be considered a "win" for China. It should be noted that, referring to the coup, "China’s ambassador to Myanmar said the current situation in the country is 'absolutely not what China wants to see,' "

Source: https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/am ... -coup.html

Moreover, in a portion of the article linked below, but not included in the citation, it is noted that the "Brotherhood Alliance members are themselves territorially ambitious, but rely on China for arms." This is an armed alliance formed in opposition to the coup.

Finally:

Myanmar’s Military Junta Appears to be In Terminal Decline
by Ronan Lee
November 16, 2023

Introduction:

(The Conversation) Myint Swe, the acting president of Mynamar’s military government, has warned that the country “will be split into various parts” after his armed forces suffered huge territorial losses to resistance fighters recently. His response was to call on Mynamar’s people to support his military forces, a call that is likely, based on previous experience, to fall mainly on deaf ears.

Far from sharing the military government’s fears of shrinking territorial control, it’s likely that most among Myanmar’s 55 million people will celebrate the army’s territorial losses. Junta misreads like this are not new – after they seized power in February 2021, the coup leaders indicated surprise when the coup met with widespread outrage and sustained public protest and resistance.

To quell opposition, military bosses have adopted a strategy of arbitrary arrest and extreme violence. The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners estimates 19,675 people are currently jailed – a figure which increases almost daily. Peaceful protests are met with army snipers and shoot-to-kill orders.

Myanmar’s military routinely responds to armed resistance by collectively punishing nearby civilian populations. This has included devastating airstrikes on civilian targets and scorched-earth “clearance operation” campaigns that have killed thousands of people and displaced more than 700,000 more. Rather than cowing the populace, junta violence continues to spur nationwide resistance.

Since September 2021, the National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow government in exile, has authorised a “defensive war” against the state military, pushing for the creation of militias targeting the junta and its economic base. NUG militias have increasingly coordinated with Myanmar’s dozens of ethnic armed groups, many of which have already been fighting the Tatmadaw (the junta’s military) for decades.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/myanmars-m ... -217753

[caltrek]

Civil War in Myanmar: Internal And External Sources Of Sustenance
by Dr. Bibhu Prasad Routray
November 26, 2023

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) Myanmar’s military wants to continue with its authoritarian model, whereby they continue to be politically paramount. This effectively translates into dominating and dictating the pace of democracy in the country, controlling while seeming to have withdrawn. This objective led it to declare the parliamentary elections held in 2020 as marred by fraud, thus appearing as the champion of clean and representative governance.

In reality, the opposition’s National Unity Government (NUG) led by the National League of Democracy (NLD), which swept the 2020 parliamentary elections, represents the voice of the people of Myanmar, who want the country to emerge out of the stranglehold of the military. The military’s proposed election is all about installing a facade, that will represent its interests, whereas the NLD-led opposition’s avowed objectives are to guide Myanmar to viable democracy, featuring civilian leadership and a military in its expected place guaranteeing security. Objectives of both parties, hence, are antithetical and irreconcilable.

Intense Violence

Not surprisingly, then, the last 32 months in Myanmar – those since the coup of February 2021 – have been marked by intense violence. Both the opposition and the military seem to have underestimated the strategy and conviction of the other. The initial response of the NLD to the coup was to organize a civil disobedience movement, in which people were encouraged to rally and protest peacefully in support of the opposition. Appealing to the good sense of the military and forcing it to reverse its decision was the intent. A robust military response led to the formation of People’s Defence Force (PDF) groups to fight fire with fire. Simultaneously, the military erred in judging the effectiveness of opposition adaptation to the requirements of an emerging civil war. A key determinant was the success of the NLD-led opposition groups in linking to the longtime, collective armed opposition posed by the battle-hardened ethnic armed organisations (EAOs). This negated any hope the military might have had of quickly stabilising the country.

Later in this article it indicates that the Chinese government between February 2021 and May 2023 supplied advanced weapons systems worth $267 million to the military government of Myanmar.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/26112023 ... analysis/