Lebanon Watch Thread

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caltrek
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Ongoing Civil Strikes Further Cripple Everyday Life in Lebanon
by David Enders
July 10, 2022

Introduction:
(Al Jazeera) Beirut, Lebanon – Lebanon’s seemingly terminal dysfunction is now compounded by open-ended strikes at most government offices, as salaries are no longer sufficient for employees to get to work, let alone support themselves or their families.

The International Labor Organization’s (ILO) Beirut office estimates that nearly 100 percent of civil employees are now engaged in permanent or intermittent work stoppages.

Last week, air traffic controllers at Beirut’s international airport announced they would stop working nights in August, underscoring the severity of a situation that affects everything from courts to schools.

The strike has also affected criminal prosecutions and caused delays in processing early releases that might have otherwise shortened jail sentences.

“If there was a system working properly, I have clients who would be outside today,” said Rafik Oreh Ghraizi, a lawyer who represents clients that would be eligible for early release but whose cases have not been processed.
Read more here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/ ... lebanon
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Lebanon-Israel Maritime Talks Still All at Sea
by Neville Teller
October 2, 2022

Introduction:
(Eurasia Review) Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, in power for 30 years, faces an acute dilemma. On the one hand, Hezbollah cannot possibly endorse the formal negotiations now in progress between Israel and the Lebanese government, of which it is a part. On the other hand, it cannot be the one to torpedo an agreement that could rescue Lebanon from the economic problems that are almost overwhelming it.

The crisis is so severe that people have taken to staging armed bank hold-ups to recover their savings. At least five such bank “heists” were reported on September 16, two days after a young woman stormed a central Beirut bank with fuel and a plastic gun to demand the deposits of her sister, who needed to pay for cancer treatment. The woman made off with around $13,000 and became an instant hero on social media. The severity of Lebanon’s crisis has been widely blamed on a self-serving political elite dominated by Hezbollah, and decades of corruption.

Lebanon and Israel have been locked in US-mediated negotiations for some two years in an effort to agree on a maritime border that would determine which oil and gas resources belong to which country. The struggle is over a gas-rich area of the Mediterranean with an estimated value reaching billions of dollars.

US envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in the region in the first week of September to help overcome the issues still standing in the way of a settlement, and to try to push the parties closer to an agreement. The three principals – the US, Israel and the Lebanese government (even though Hezbollah has a place in it) – have indicated a willingness to get a deal concluded as soon as possible, while Hezbollah itself has been ratcheting up its threats to launch a military attack on Israel’s Karish gas reserve field, to protect what it regards as Lebanon’s rights.

The dispute goes back to 2007, when Lebanon and Cyprus reached an agreement over the limits of their maritime borders. The southern boundary in that agreement represented Lebanon’s maritime border with Israel. Cyprus has ratified the agreement; Lebanon has not.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/02102022 ... sea-oped/

Image
Eastern Mediterranean Oil and Gas Geography.
Detail of US Department of State graphic, released by Congressional Research Service.
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Outgoing President Leaves Behind Power Vacuum as He Slams Judiciary and Political Opponents
by Najia Houssari
October 31, 2022

Introduction:
(Arab News via Eurasia Review) Lebanon’s outgoing head of state Michel Aoun on Sunday launched a blistering attack on his political opponents and the country’s judiciary as he bowed out of the presidential palace.

In a speech, the departing president said he was leaving behind, “a robbed country, a worn-out state, and institutions that no longer have any value.”

Exiting one day before his mandate expired without a designated successor — deepening the country’s political crisis — he blasted the judiciary for failing to do its job and accused judges of taking bribes.

He also blamed opponents for preventing him from bringing to justice Lebanon’s Central Bank Gov. Riad Salameh — who is being investigated in several European countries, including Switzerland, France, Luxembourg, and Liechtenstein for alleged money laundering and embezzlement — who he described as “the perpetrator of all financial crimes.”

And he claimed influential people had blocked attempts to investigate the deadly Beirut port explosion saying the head of the Supreme Judicial Council had not wanted to appoint anyone to look into the disaster.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/31102022 ... pponents/
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Harvard Report Proposes Comprehensive Plan for Lebanon’s Economic Recovery
November 29, 2023

Introduction:
(Eurekalert) Harvard's Growth Lab has released a new report on Lebanon's struggling economy that revisits the origins of the crisis and proposes a comprehensive plan for a swift economic recovery. The research project, led by Professors Ricardo Hausmann, Ugo Panizza, and Carmen Reinhart, provides a clear diagnostic of the ongoing crisis and suggests novel, out-of-the box solutions.

The research highlights the unusual depth of Lebanon’s economic collapse. According to Professor Hausmann, “Lebanon faces a triple financial crisis: its currency has collapsed, its banking system is bankrupt, and the government has defaulted on its debt. The result is one of the most severe economic collapses in recent history.” Four years into the crisis, real output plummeted by 38%, the local currency has lost 98% of its value, and the country has suffered from very high inflation. Lebanese citizens are unable to access the funds they hold in their bank accounts, while the government struggles to provide basic public services to its population.

Based on their diagnostic of the roots of the crisis, the researchers propose an economic recovery plan in four points:

1. Adopting a new monetary and exchange rate regime based on full dollarization; given the existing de facto dollarization of the economy and the instability that a flexible exchange rate regime would bring, adopting the US dollar as Lebanon’s legal tender is the best option to jump-start the recovery.
2. Resolving the banking and central bank insolvency by immediately converting ~USD 76 billion in excess claims on the banks and Banque du Liban into claims on the government, while protecting deposits below ~USD 100,000-150,000.
3. Restructuring the public sector debt in the context of an IMF agreement that involves a gradual fiscal adjustment, achieving a 3% primary surplus by 2030 and including ~USD 8 billion in additional financing needs. This would necessitate an expected haircut of ~82-90%.
4. Developing new drivers of economic growth based on agricultural value chains, tourism, natural gas, and high-skill business services.
Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1009595
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