SpaceX Starlink Has 1 Million Active Subscribers
by Brian Wang
December 19, 2022
Introduction:
Read more here: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/12/ ... bers.html(Next Big Future) SpaceX had 1 million Starlink dishes manufactured in September, 2022 but has just announced 1 million active Starlink customers about 2.5 months later.
The primary drivers of SpaceX revenue is the rate that they can produce Starlink dishes and then sell the dishes and services to customers. They are at 150k per month now in late 2022 which is 1.8M per year but are increasing the speed of sales. September 25, 2022, Elon Musk tweeted that over 1 million dishes had been manufactured. Elon had said that 500,000 customers were signed up in early June, 2022. This means over 150,000 dishes per month on average for three months. SpaceX will end 2022 with about 1.1 million Starlink customers.
(SpaceX Twitter feed announcement can be found through the link provided below).
They would need to average 450k per month in 2023 to hit the targets in my forecast below (see link to article provided below). They would need to average 1.2 million dishes per month in 2024. The direct phone revenue is determined by how many cellphone customers choose to buy global satellite text and voice from T-mobile and any other new SpaceX cellphone partners. There are 110 million potential t-mobile customers and 5-10% will likely join different levels of global text and voice with no deadzones.
I think the Gen 2 satellite numbers will be higher in 2023. If there were 5000 Gen 2 satellites then the direct to phone revenue could be $6-10 billion in 2023 and $20 billion in 2024. Any total revenue over $10 billion for a year would mean profitability and a strong case for an IPO of Starlink. The Starlink IPO seems like a Q4 2023 thing based upon progress at SpaceX.