Russia Watch Thread

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caltrek
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Overcoming Censorship in Today’s Russia
by Monika Bauerlein
March 2, 2023

Extract:
(Mother Jones) “It’s a strange way to be,” Kate Abramova said. “You live in the city you are living in, but you are living in Russia in your head.” Kate is part of the Russian independent news organization Meduza, which was recently declared an “undesirable organization” by the Kremlin. We were introduced shortly after Putin’s troops began rolling toward Kiev—Meduza published an antiwar editorial that day—and on the anniversary of that invasion we sat in a coffee shop in Palo Alto and talked about what it’s like to keep uncensored journalism alive.

When I first learned about Meduza, they were in the middle of a wild scramble. Sanctions in response to Putin’s war had shut off the support of 30,000 readers who donated to keep their work alive. That challenge resonated with us at Mother Jones, since support from readers is the lifeline for our reporting as well. So for a few frantic weeks, we got to be part of mobilizing a global solidarity campaign to try to sign up new supporters for Meduza. (MoJo readers stepped up in amazing ways, with donations between $1 and $100,000 to keep Meduza going.) It was powerful to know that each of us could do something concrete to stand up to authoritarianism and aggression. (You can find Meduza’s English-language reporting here. Another vital reader-supported newsroom in the region is the Kyiv Independent, which has powerful on-the-ground coverage from Ukraine and Belarus.)

Kate’s colleague, editor-in-chief Ivan Kolpakov, had asked if I could take them to a real American diner for breakfast, and over pancakes we compared notes about working with whistleblowers, the future of advertising (not good), and the power of tech platforms. But the thing that stuck with me was when they reflected about their biggest struggle today: Remaining relevant for their Russian audience. It’s not easy being a newsroom for exiles, they said—but it’s even harder to serve the country that you left behind.

There are still millions of people in Russia circumventing the censors by reading Meduza online, and Kate and Ivan’s allegiance to those readers was palpable.
Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/media/2023 ... our-head/
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IMF chief: Ukraine war will have ‘devastating’ consequences for Russia’s economy

Wed March 8, 2023

The International Monetary Fund has drawn criticism for forecasting that Russia will see stronger economic growth this year than either the United Kingdom or Germany, despite rising pressure from Western sanctions.

But Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, told CNN’s Poppy Harlow that the economic outlook for Russia beyond 2023 is “quite devastating.”

“When you take our projections over a medium term, what they mean is Russia[’s economy] shrinking by at least 7%,” Georgieva said in an interview that aired Wednesday.

[...]

Georgieva told CNN that Russia’s economy would suffer over time as workers emigrated and access to technology was cut off, and as sanctions on its vast energy industry took a toll.

[...]

Meanwhile, the US and European economies have proven surprisingly resilient, Georgieva said. She pointed to the strength of their job markets and Europe’s swift action to limit reliance on Russian energy.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/08/econ ... index.html


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weatheriscool
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Russia oil revenues plummeted in February as war penalties hit
Source: Washington Post
Russia’s revenue from oil exports dropped by nearly half in February compared to last year after a European Union embargo and new price caps intended to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine went into effect, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency. But it is unclear if the measures are seriously hampering President Vladimir Putin’s war machine.

Shipments of Russian oil to European Union countries plummeted by 760,000 barrels per day, from 1.4 million, the report said, but Moscow has managed to reroute most of that oil — mainly to India and China, but also to other buyers in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, who are enjoying low prices.

“It remains to be seen if there will be sufficient appetite for Russian oil products now that the price cap is in place or if its production will start to fall under the weight of sanctions,” the agency said, adding: “Although it has been relatively successful in sustaining volumes, Russia’s oil revenue has taken a hit.”

Experts disagree over whether the price caps will significantly undermine Russia’s ability to finance its brutal war in Ukraine.
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... sanctions/
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Going Beyond Mercenaries: Is Prigozhin Preparing For A Power Struggle In Russia?
by Sergey Sukhankin
March 24, 2023

Introduction:
(The Jamestown Foundation via Eurasia Review) Moscow’s war of aggression against Ukraine has caused a proliferation in the “privatization of force” in Russia (see EDM, February 27; February 28), with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the sponsor and founder of the notorious Wagner Group, enjoying unprecedented publicity.

While some commentators and experts (both in Russia and abroad) argue that Prigozhin is acting as the Kremlin’s henchman whose days may be numbered, the Wagner leader’s strategy is much less obvious and far more complex than it appears on the surface. This is visible in both Wagner’s evolving recruitment approach and the strengthening of ties with influential and potentially useful figures within Russian economic and political circles.

It is clear now that during the Russo-Ukrainian war, one main source of recruitment for Wagner has been the Russian penitentiary system (see EDM, August 18, 2022). Yet, given the rate of attrition and qualities of those recruited, this approach is more suited for specific short-term tasks—such as offensive actions on a specified portion of the battlefield—but may be less effective with respect to long-term, more strategic plans. Given the looming prospects of destabilization and internal rupture in Russia, Prigozhin might already be planning to use Wagner members as a valuable resource in a potential struggle for power (Bugajski, Failed State, 2022). In this regard, however, reliance on ideology-free criminals and ex-convicts will have limited value. Thus, Prigozhin is seemingly altering his recruitment strategy in a number of ways.

First, Wagner is widening the geographic scope and changing its approach in the selection of candidates to join the quasi–private military company (PMC). For the former, Wagner recruitment centers have emerged in no fewer than 42 Russian cities (blocked_official, March 10). In this, Siberia—whether motivated by socioeconomic factors, ideas of regionalism, potential separatism or a combination of all three—is playing an increasingly central role. Social advertisements calling on locals to join the Wagner Group are now being publicly advertised in all major Siberian cities (blocked, October 4, 2022).
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/24032023 ... analysis/

caltrek's comment: A bummer that it seems to be boiling down to the hard liners versus the ultra-hardliners. The pacifists, or those with a rational understanding of the international geopolitics, are just told to shut up or risk prison sentences. For show, there are a few "moderates" here and there that show up in their television debate forums, but one senses that they are not allowed to question the wisdom of keeping Putin as their leader. Only suggesting that advisors of a certain type be replaced by advisors of another type.
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Russia Arrests Wall Street Journal Reporter on Spying Charge
March 30 , 2023

Introduction:
(AP via Courthouse News) “The Wall Street Journal vehemently denies the allegations from the FSB and seeks the immediate release of our trusted and dedicated reporter, Evan Gershkovich,” the newspaper said. “We stand in solidarity with Evan and his family.”
The arrest comes at a moment of bitter tensions between the West and Moscow over its war in Ukraine and as the Kremlin intensifies a crackdown on opposition activists, independent journalists and civil society groups. The sweeping campaign of repression is unprecedented since the Soviet era — and activists say it often means the very profession of journalism is criminalized, as are the activities of ordinary Russians who oppose the war.

Earlier this week, a Russian court convicted a father over social media posts critical of the war and sentenced him to two years in prison while his 13-year-old daughter was sent to an orphanage.

Gershkovich is the first American reporter to be arrested on espionage charges in Russia since September 1986, when Nicholas Daniloff, a Moscow correspondent for U.S. News and World Report, was arrested by the KGB. Daniloff was released without charge 20 days later in a swap for an employee of the Soviet Union's United Nations mission who was arrested by the FBI, also on spying charges.
At a hearing Thursday, a Moscow court quickly ruled to keep Gershkovich behind bars pending the investigation.

Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/russia- ... g-charge/

caltrek’s comment: Discussion of this case is also showing up on MSNBC.
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weatheriscool
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Putin's getting nervous about Russia's sinking economy
Kremlinologists think it’s no coincidence that Russian authorities seized Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich just a day after he co-authored a Journal story on how Russia’s economy is “starting to come undone.”

Russia says Gershkovich was spying, which the Journal adamantly denies. It’s safe to believe the Journal because Russia passed a law last year that basically criminalizes what journalists do: ask questions about things the government doesn’t want anybody to know about.

That law focuses on anybody spreading information about the Russian military, which may apply to Gershkovich because he was reportedly researching a story on the Wagner paramilitary group that’s part of Russia’s invasion force in Ukraine. But that’s just a pretext for Russian President Vladimir Putin to punish and silence one voice highlighting the economic price Russians are starting to pay for Putin’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine.

For several months after Russian forces invaded Ukraine last February, the Russian economy seemed resilient. A spike in energy prices boosted Russia’s oil and gas revenue, its largest source of funds. Deft maneuvers by the Russian Central Bank helped the country withstand tough sanctions imposed by the United States and other allies of Ukraine. Russian forces floundered in Ukraine, but that was due to poor military planning and execution, not sanctions.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/putins-g ... 43630.html
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Ukraine war: The Russian ships accused of North Sea sabotage

5 hours ago

Russia has a programme to sabotage wind farms and communication cables in the North Sea, according to new allegations.

The details come from a joint investigation by public broadcasters in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland.

It says Russia has a fleet of vessels disguised as fishing trawlers and research vessels in the North Sea.

They carry underwater surveillance equipment and are mapping key sites for possible sabotage.

The BBC understands that UK officials are aware of Russian vessels moving around UK waters as part of the programme.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65309687


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What a sick, evil country Russia is.

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r/nottheonion
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