Russia Watch Thread

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caltrek
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

funkervogt wrote: Sun Jan 01, 2023 2:35 pm Don't trust official Ukrainian claims about the future of the War or Putin.
A COUP to boot "cancer-stricken" Vladimir Putin from power is already underway, Ukraine's spy chief has claimed.

Major General Kyrylo Budanov, 36, believes the tyrant's calamitous war in Ukraine will hit a "breaking point" in summer and be over before the end of the year.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/5337781/co ... -underway/
Newsweek is carrying a similar article:

https://www.newsweek.com/coup-putin-rus ... ov-1706685

Time will tell. Perhaps even then not the complete story. Something historians will attempt to sort out.
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funkervogt
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

Another failure. Don't put any stock in claims, even from credible-sounding people, that Putin is on the verge of death or downfall.
'I think he'll be gone by 2023 - but probably into the sanatorium, from which he will not emerge as the leader of Russia.'

'I'm not saying he won't emerge from the sanatorium, but he won't emerge as the leader of Russia any longer.

'That's a way to sort of move things on without a coup,' he concluded.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... orium.html
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raklian
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by raklian »

Well, either way, Putin is not achieving his objectives he set when he invaded Ukraine.
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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funkervogt
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

raklian wrote: Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:04 am Well, either way, Putin is not achieving his objectives he set when he invaded Ukraine.
I didn't say otherwise. Invading Ukraine in 2022 was the biggest mistake of his life (up to this point).
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caltrek
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

If a coup is underway, it seems to be happening in slow motion. Very slow motion.
Don't mourn, organize.

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funkervogt
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

A newly produced battle tank immediately sent to the front and shot by a Ukrainian Javelin missile still counts as a nominal contribution to Russian GDP.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian- ... re-working
weatheriscool
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Russia's budget deficit soars as energy revenues slump by almost half
Source: Financial Times
Russia’s budget deficit reached Rbs1.76tn ($25bn) in January as the Kremlin boosted defence spending and western sanctions began to hit the country’s oil and gas revenue.

...

Revenue from oil and gas fell 46 per cent year on year to Rbs426bn, the finance ministry said on Monday, blaming the drop on falling prices for Urals, its main crude export blend, and a decline in natural gas exports. Urals has traded at a significant discount to the global Brent benchmark since the conflict began in late February 2022.

Expenditure ballooned 59 per cent year on year to Rbs3.12tn in January 2023, amid largely classified plans to increase defence spending to Rbs3.5tn this year. Ukrainian officials have warned in recent days that they believe Russia is set to launch a major offensive in the coming weeks to mark the first anniversary of the confli
ct.

The preliminary monthly figures — the first since western countries introduced a price cap and partial embargo on Russia’s oil last December — mean that the deficit is already about 60 per cent of the level expected for the duration of this year. The finance ministry said it remained on track to meet its budgetary targets for 2023.

Read more: https://www.ft.com/content/3def31b3-ca3 ... 08ac6dfb44
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caltrek
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

One thing to bear in mind when comparing Russia with the West is the capacity to endure suffering. It may be demonstrably clear that Russia is suffering more from the war than the West. Still, its government may be in a "better" position to impose suffering upon its people. There may be a perception that there is simply no alternative. In the West, there are elections and the prospect of destabilizing governments through mass protest. While theoretically possible in Russia, actual on the ground conditions are such that the Russian government is more stable.

One possibility is that this does not apply to Putin himself. Still, in Russia the government has a clear power superiority over the economically based oligarchs. Something that is pretty much the reverse in the West.
Last edited by caltrek on Tue Feb 07, 2023 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ººº
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by ººº »

caltrek wrote: Tue Feb 07, 2023 5:08 pm One thing to bear in mind when comparing Russia with the West is the capacity to endure suffering. It may be demonstrably clear that Russia is suffering more from the war than the West. Still, its government may be in a "better" position to impose suffering upon its people. There may be a perception that there is simply no alternative. In the West, there are elections and the prospect of destabilizing governments through mass protest. While theoretically possible in Russia, actual on the ground conditions are such that the Russian government is more stable.

One possibility is that this does not apply to Putin himself. Still, in Russia the government has a clear power superiority over the economically based oligarchs. Something that is pretty much the revers in the West.
I should point out that Ukraine in particular is suffering more than Russia, after all the war is taking place on its territory unlike Russia.
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caltrek
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

Investigators Indicate Supply of Missile Used to Down MH17 Jet Probably Involved Putin Approval
by Moly Quel
February 8, 2023

Introduction:
THE HAGUE, Netherlands (Courthouse News) — An international investigation team looking into the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 says they have evidence showing “strong indications” that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed off personally on the transport of the weapon used to bring down the passenger jet.

The Joint Investigation Team announced in a press conference on Wednesday that they had finalized their investigation and that Putin’s immunity as a head of state would keep him from being prosecuted for the tragedy, despite evidence linking him to the 2014 disaster that killed 298 people.

“After 8.5 years the JIT has exhausted all avenues for investigation,” Dutch prosecutor Digna van Boetzelaer told reporters.

The news comes months after the Netherlands convicted three men who supplied the BUK missile that shot down the Boeing 777 from the sky as it flew from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur. A fourth man was acquitted. The men were tried in absentia and none are in Dutch custody.

Much of the evidence used in the trial came from the JIT, a five-country joint investigation team led by the Netherlands, which concluded that a Russian military bridge transported the surface-to-air missile across the border into Ukraine just days before the disaster. Moscow has denied any involvement.
Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/missile ... tors-say/
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