Russia Watch Thread

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funkervogt
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Post by funkervogt »

Russia's central bank predicts the country's economy will contract this year and in 2023. This is due to the Western sanctions, and probably to a lesser extent, to the direct costs of fighting in Ukraine.
https://www.politico.eu/article/russian ... forecasts/
weatheriscool
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Russia's economy contracts sharply as war and sanctions take hold.
Source: New York Times

The Russian economy contracted steeply in the second quarter as the economic consequences of its war in Ukraine took hold.

The economy shrank 4 percent from April through June compared with a year ago, the Russian statistics agency said on Friday. It is the first quarterly gross domestic product report to fully capture the change in the economy since the invasion of Ukraine in February, when Western sanctions shut Russia off from much of the global financial system, and many countries severed trading relationships with Moscow.

It was also a sharp reversal from the first quarter, when the economy rose 3.5 percent.

Even as imports to Russia dried up and financial transactions were blocked to the extent that the country was forced to default on its foreign debt, the Russian economy has proved more resilient than some economists initially expected. But analysts expect the economic toll to grow heavier as Western nations increasingly turn away from Russian oil and gas, critical sources of export revenue.
Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/12/busi ... y-gdp.html
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erowind
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by erowind »

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/ ... der-putin/

Russia under Putin

In this blog post economist Michael Roberts gives context to Russia's imperialism in Ukraine, both in terms of Russian oligarchs being benefactors of the expansion of Russian capital into Ukraine and also in providing background on Putin's revanchism. Robert's provides a summery of the development of capitalist autocracy in Russia with the aid of western capital following the fall of the USSR and explains the failure of Yeltsin's shock capitalism and Putin's rise to power through overthrowing the oligarchs of the Yeltsin administrations only to replace them with oligarchs who are allied with himself.
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caltrek
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

New Study Reviews the Influence of Organized Crime and the Wealthy Over Russian Foreign Policy
August 15, 2022

Introduction:
(EurekAlert) Russian foreign policy-making is often guided by elites, intermediaries, private companies, and organised crime groups rather than the national interest, a new study shows.

Identifying and tracing Russian illicit financial flows is very difficult due to the politicised nature of authoritarian legal systems and data gaps. Being able to “follow the money” is hard because there is minimal formal regulation or oversight.

Researchers mapped the malign Russian practices via a literature review of existing studies on overseas practices by those connected with the Kremlin. This allowed them to categorise different types of influence which created conditions friendly to illicit financial flows. This included political activities, which blur formal and informal means of diplomacy and political influencing to promote Russia-friendly candidates and political parties; media activities, which blur truth and falsehood by constructing and disseminating narratives painting Russia and pro-Russia actors in a positive light; and political violence, which blurs legitimate and illegitimate use of force to secure investment projects, destabilise regions and undermine or eliminate opposition.

The research was conducted by Catherine Owen and Tom Mayne from the University of Exeter and Tena Prelec from the University of Oxford and University of Rijeka. It was carried out as part of the Serious Organised Crime & Anti-Corruption Evidence (SOC ACE) research programme, which is funded by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO).

Dr Owen said: “It is virtually impossible to disentangle the relationship between Russian foreign policy and Russian illicit financial flows since Russian foreign policy has a strong illicit financial – or kleptocratic – element.
Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/961866

Here is a link to the published 27-page study (plus related notes): https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/documents ... eport.pdf
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funkervogt
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

The size of Russia's ongoing "brain drain" is impossible to accurately estimate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/realized ... 00135.html
Xyls
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by Xyls »

Daughter of Putin ally Alexander Dugin killed in car bomb in Moscow – reports


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ow-reports

Love that for them. Couldn't have happened to nicer people.

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Certain Russian user
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

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Xyls wrote: Sun Aug 21, 2022 6:27 am Daughter of Putin ally Alexander Dugin killed in car bomb in Moscow

Love that for them. Couldn't have happened to nicer people.
In a way, I'm even glad. I am glad that the enemies of my country, of my people, of all that dear to me - nearly all of them are like that sick person I quoted. If these were people with conscience and dignity, it would have embarrassed me. Fortunately, they are just a bunch of wiggling and giggling petty daemons can not hold their joy from successful terrorist attack and the death of young woman.

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We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
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wjfox
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by wjfox »

Certain Russian user wrote: Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:18 pm
Xyls wrote: Sun Aug 21, 2022 6:27 am Daughter of Putin ally Alexander Dugin killed in car bomb in Moscow

Love that for them. Couldn't have happened to nicer people.
In a way, I'm even glad. I am glad that the enemies of my country, of my people, of all that dear to me - nearly all of them are like that sick person I quoted. If these were people with conscience and dignity, it would have embarrassed me. Fortunately, they are just a bunch of wiggling and giggling petty daemons can not hold their joy from successful terrorist attack and the death of young woman.

Image
This could have been avoided. Maybe don't illegally invade sovereign countries? Oh, and don't be a genocide-advocating fascist. Just a thought.
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funkervogt
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

Xyls wrote: Sun Aug 21, 2022 6:27 am Daughter of Putin ally Alexander Dugin killed in car bomb in Moscow – reports


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ow-reports

Love that for them. Couldn't have happened to nicer people.

I checked out that Twitter video. Some say that her words ("Ukrainians are not humans. They all deserve to die.") were mistranslated, and she was actually only speaking about the Azov Battalion, which is known to have many Neo-Nazi members.

I don't speak Russian, so I can understand Dugina's words.
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funkervogt
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Re: Russia Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

The economic toll of the Ukraine War and the West's sanctions is high in Russia, but not nearly as bad as many predicted it would be.
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's economy has avoided the meltdown many predicted after Moscow sent its forces into Ukraine six months ago, with higher prices for its oil exports cushioning the impact of Western sanctions, but hardships are emerging for some Russians.

After predicting at one point that the economy would shrink more than 12% this year, exceeding the falls in output seen after the Soviet Union collapsed and during the 1998 financial crisis, the economy ministry now expects a 4.2% contraction.

High global energy prices have helped the Kremlin follow through on President Vladimir Putin's pledge in March to reduce poverty and inequality despite crippling Western sanctions and inflation. Some economists have compared the situation to the COVID-19 pandemic, when authorities increased payments for those most vulnerable to the crisis.

"So far, there are no signs that the drop in living standards could lead to unrest," said Alexei Firsov, founder of social studies think tank Platforma.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/meltdown-ave ... 59034.html

In other news, the Euro just sunk below the value of the U.S. dollar due to fears of an impending recession in Europe, and the inflation rate in the U.K. is 18.6%. The economic situation is better in the U.S., but still not great, and I can attest that average people here are starting to lose interest in the Ukraine War.

Putin's strategy to wear down the West in an economic war of attrition might work.
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