Global Recession & Retail Apocalypse News and Discussions

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caltrek
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Re: Global Recession & Retail Apocalypse News and Discussions

Post by caltrek »

In regards to China, I think one thing to keep in mind is the extent to which China is a mixed economic system, or at least has been from about the late 1980s onward. So, stock market swings may indeed reflect government policies of shifting away from pay outs to foreign and private sector investors in favor of a more government dominated approach. The March 7, 2022 edition of The Nation contains a book review of two books, neither of which I have read. The books are Market Maoists by Jason M. Kelly and How China Escape Shock Therapy: The Market Reform Debate by Isabella Weber. The review includes this interesting passage:
Thankfully, a handful of young, pragmatic, rural-oriented Chinese reformers led a countermovement to persuade the state’s top economic decision-maker, Premier Zhao Ziyang, to adopt a gradualist dual-track price system (shuanggui zhi). The industrial core of the socialist economy would remain under state price controls, while “nonessential” goods at the margins were gradually commodified, enabling China to maximize its economic potential.
Interestingly, Weber traces this development back to before Karl Marx was even born:
She frames the debates of the 1980s in terms derived from the text Guanzi, from the seventh century bce, which argued that in economic questions, one should distinguish between “light and heavy” goods (qingzhong): that is, between “heavy” essential goods, such as salt, grains, and silk, which the state has a duty to regulate, versus everything else, which officials could leave unprotected from market dynamics.
This suggests to me that an excessive focus on "market dynamics" can result in missing out on what is happening with the production of "essential" goods. Perhaps, what it does signal is a continuing break from the West. One thing that seems to have led up to this break, and not discussed in the book review, is the whole question of intellectual property rights. That is a symptom of what China most needed from the West: technological know-how. It is as if the country has reached a point where it has received diminishing returns from its gains on that front and is now ready to turn inward. Trump's so-called "trade war" may have also been a big prompt in that direction.

Admittedly, these comments on my part are a bit speculative as I have not been able to focus on China as much as I might have liked due to the distraction of so many other interesting issues raging across the planet. So, I am trying to keep my mind open to alternative ways of looking at things in regards to China. For those more interested in focusing on China, the two books reviewed in The Nation sound like they may be a good place to start.

Here is a link to that review. I subscribe to The Nation so I don't know if the link is available to those of you who do not:

https://www.thenation.com/article/world ... e-markets/
Don't mourn, organize.

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caltrek
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Re: Global Recession & Retail Apocalypse News and Discussions

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Chinese Stocks in U.S. Roar Back on State’s Pro-Market Pledge
by Farah Elbahrawy
March 16, 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... te-support

Introduction:
(Bloomberg) Chinese stocks listed on U.S. exchanges soared the most since at least 2001 after Beijing vowed to keep its stock market stable and support overseas share listings.

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index jumped as much as 18% Wednesday after officials vowed to keep battered capital markets stable and promised to ease a regulatory crackdown, support property and technology companies.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. rallied as much as 21% in its biggest intraday gain since September 2014, while JD.com Inc. and Didi Global Inc. each gained at least 25%.

The American depository receipts are tracking a rally in Asian stocks after China’s announcement, with the Hang Seng Tech Index surging 22%, the most on record. U.S. stock benchmarks also gained Wednesday after the Kremlin hinted at progress in peace talks with Ukraine and China’s market pledge.
“What we saw today is the regulatory risk premiums going away,” said Olivier d’Assier, head of Asia Pacific applied research at Qontigo. “Regulatory risk was the biggest worry for investors and they are right now breathing a sigh of relief on Beijing’s speech.”
Don't mourn, organize.

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Re: Global Recession & Retail Apocalypse News and Discussions

Post by funkervogt »

Kohl's has lost around 17% of its market share since 2011, primarily to off-price retailers such as TJMaxx (TJX), as well as Amazon, according to UBS.
"[F]orces like consumers' migration to online and preference for value have contributed to this erosion," UBS analyst Jay Sole said in a recent report. "This will likely continue after the pandemic."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/19/business ... index.html
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Yuli Ban
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Re: Global Recession & Retail Apocalypse News and Discussions

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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Re: Global Recession & Retail Apocalypse News and Discussions

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Absolutely the Dems are dying
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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Re: Global Recession & Retail Apocalypse News and Discussions

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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Re: Global Recession & Retail Apocalypse News and Discussions

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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Re: Global Recession & Retail Apocalypse News and Discussions

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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Re: Global Recession & Retail Apocalypse News and Discussions

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There are doomsday visions of supply chains – already under pressure due to the pandemic – collapsing altogether, businesses forced into bankruptcy, mass unemployment.

The head of IG Metall, Jörg Hoffmann, a union that represents 1.2 million workers in the chemical, metal processing and food production, has warned of “a recession deeper than any of the recessions we have known until now.”
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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Re: Global Recession & Retail Apocalypse News and Discussions

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Britain could fall into recession this summer, say experts

Inflation will limit UK consumers’ spending power, with energy costs a particular problem

Mon 18 Apr 2022 12.09 BST

Britain’s economy is at growing risk of falling into a summer recession amid the biggest squeeze on household incomes since the mid 1950s, as soaring inflation curtails consumer spending power, forecasters have said.

Economists said the double blow from slowing post-lockdown growth and rising living costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could result in a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, which is the definition of a recession.

After a weaker-than-expected growth performance in February, and with the inflation rate reaching the highest levels since 1992 last month, City forecasters said UK GDP was now on track to grow by about 1% in the first quarter of 2022 before slipping into reverse this summer.

Analysts said activity would be reduced by an extra bank holiday for the Queen’s platinum jubilee in June, as public holidays usually lead to a drop in overall economic output. The return to lower rates of activity in the health sector after a winter rush to vaccinate people against Covid-19, as well as households reining in their spending amid the soaring cost of living, are also expected to weigh on growth.

James Smith, an economist at the Dutch bank ING, said the economy was likely to shrink in the second quarter. The bank forecasts a 0.3% contraction in the three months to the end of June, followed by growth of just 0.2% in the third quarter.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ay-experts
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