Peter Thiel's failed predictions about today

[funkervogt]

I found this gem from one decade ago:

If I had to sort of project in the next decade ahead, I think we have to at least be open to the possibility that the computer era is also at risk of decelerating. We have a large 'Computer Rust Belt' which nobody likes to talk about. But it is companies like Cisco, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Oracle, IBM, where I think the pattern will be to become commodities, no longer innovate. Correspondingly, cut through labor force and cut through profits in the decade ahead.

There are many companies that are on the cusp: Microsoft is probably close to the Computer Rust Belt. One that's shockingly and probably in the Computer Rust Belt is Apple Computers.

So what has actually happened since he said that?

Microsoft has the lead in A.I. technology and Apple just unveiled the best augmented reality glasses ever made. Their market caps are $2.5 trillion and $3 trillion, respectively.

In fact, every one of the "Computer Rust Belt" tech companies Thiel mentioned has seen its stocks soar over the last ten years, except IBM. If you'd bought $10,000 of stock for each of those seven companies in 2013, you'd have at least four or five times more money overall today.

At the 27:24 mark, Thiel also says that "people at Twitter have better job security than people at the New York Times," which was wrong.

I respect Thiel, but his failure to predict the future of the U.S. tech industry just ten years out, and even though he had his finger on the pulse of that industry is a useful reminder that even expert forecasts can't be 100% trusted.

[Vakanai]

At the 27:24 mark, Thiel also says that "people at Twitter have better job security than people at the New York Times," which was wrong.

In his defense on that one, they did have pretty good job security until Elon ponied up 40 billion to turn Twitter into his own conservative right wing echo chamber. And no one could've predicted that.

[funkervogt]

At the 27:24 mark, Thiel also says that "people at Twitter have better job security than people at the New York Times," which was wrong.

In his defense on that one, they did have pretty good job security until Elon ponied up 40 billion to turn Twitter into his own conservative right wing echo chamber. And no one could've predicted that.

Twitter was already understood to be grossly overstaffed, so even if Musk hadn't bought the company, there would have been mass layoffs. Either that, or it would be bankrupt.

And if Twitter is a "conservative right wing echo chamber" now, then it was a "liberal left wing echo chamber" before, which is just as bad.

[Powers]

Except for the recent restriction all of this would have happened without Musk anyway.

[Vakanai]

And if Twitter is a "conservative right wing echo chamber" now, then it was a "liberal left wing echo chamber" before, which is just as bad.

Depends on the ideals. If the right wing rhetoric being echoed was small government and tax cuts sure. But most of it that I've seen is pretty homophobic and transphobic - and that is not "just as bad" as a left wing echo chamber. Honestly if they were discussing any other conservative issue then fair, but the bulk of it really does seem to be rooted in bigotry currently, at least in my experience.

[funkervogt]

And if Twitter is a "conservative right wing echo chamber" now, then it was a "liberal left wing echo chamber" before, which is just as bad.

Depends on the ideals. If the right wing rhetoric being echoed was small government and tax cuts sure. But most of it that I've seen is pretty homophobic and transphobic - and that is not "just as bad" as a left wing echo chamber. Honestly if they were discussing any other conservative issue then fair, but the bulk of it really does seem to be rooted in bigotry currently, at least in my experience.

Vakanai, in this thread you've done the following:

1) Inserted partisan politics into an apolitical discussion.
2) Asserted that one kind of partisan bias is not as bad as another kind of partisan bias.

If you want to see what the problem is in America, look in the mirror.

[MythOfProgress]

1) Inserted partisan politics into an apolitical discussion.

technically speaking, everything is political in a sense- it's not something we can run away from and especially considering this is the same guy(Thiel) who's donated before to his conservative cronies and propped them up- he's definitely not innocent in terms of him trying to create a libertarian Neo-feudal society where the rich oligarchs reign supreme as autocrats .

2) Asserted that one kind of partisan bias is not as bad as another kind of partisan bias.

they still aren't wrong? exactly how many left-leaning folks have you seen go out of their way to intentionally reinforce the systems of oppression that plague our society? in elon musk's case, the dude's literally catered to white supremacists, racists, Nazis, antisemites, anti-vaxxers and a shit-ton of other unsavory characters, signifying he's a supporter of these views-even you can't deny that.

also if i recall correctly, im not sure if liberal is the same as leftism though a lot of people don't make the distinction and instead using them both interchangeably, most liberals are still vested in maintaining the current capitialist system we live under(with a few optimal changes to it), whereas leftists are more interested in dismantling the system itself(reform vs revolution if that makes sense).

[Vakanai]

And if Twitter is a "conservative right wing echo chamber" now, then it was a "liberal left wing echo chamber" before, which is just as bad.

Depends on the ideals. If the right wing rhetoric being echoed was small government and tax cuts sure. But most of it that I've seen is pretty homophobic and transphobic - and that is not "just as bad" as a left wing echo chamber. Honestly if they were discussing any other conservative issue then fair, but the bulk of it really does seem to be rooted in bigotry currently, at least in my experience.

Vakanai, in this thread you've done the following:

1) Inserted partisan politics into an apolitical discussion.
2) Asserted that one kind of partisan bias is not as bad as another kind of partisan bias.

If you want to see what the problem is in America, look in the mirror.

In this thread I've done the following.

1) Inserted politics in a perfectly valid discussion because the idea that politics should be off limits is silly considering how much it affects us all.
2. Asserted that one kind of partisan bias is not as bad as another kind of partisan bias because when the other partisan bias is to take away people's rights, incites violence and hate crimes, and is pushing hard to deny trans people the right to exist, then it is clearly a much worse partisan bias.

If I want to see what the problem is in America, I just have to read tweets or look at political attack ads that remind me people are full of hate for anyone who doesn't conform to their extremely narrow worldview of who people should love or who people should be. Maybe your the one who should look in the mirror? Politics isn't the problem in America friend, hate is the problem in America. And people who don't understand that worry me.