Tropical Weather & Hurricane Season

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‘A Sign of What’s to Come’: Super Typhoon Sinlaku Slams Into Remote U.S. Islands in Pacific
By Brad Reed
April 14, 2026

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Super Typhoon Sinlaku slammed into the Northern Mariana Islands on Tuesday, causing severe damage to the US-controlled territories that are home to roughly 50,000 people.

According to a Tuesday report from The Associated Press, the typhoon that struck the islands of Tinian and Saipan was the strongest storm recorded so far this year, delivering sustained winds of up to 150 miles per hour.

Saipan Mayor Ramon “RB” Jose Blas Camacho told the AP he was concerned about how the storm’s severity was hindering local rescue operations.

“It’s so difficult for us to respond with this heavy rain, heavy wind to rescue people,” he said. “Objects are just flying left and right.”

Marko Korosec, a storm chaser and weather forecaster, analyzed satellite images of the storm and predicted the Northern Mariana Islands would be hit with “violent, destructive winds, catastrophic storm surges, giant waves, and flooding rain.”

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/supe ... -climate

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April forecast is for a 90-95% chance of El Nino this season.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... o/current/

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As we head into the final days of May 2026, the equatorial Pacific Ocean is transitioning out of a La Niña and warming rapidly.
https://gemini.google.com/app/516598f7d ... n=base_all

The current weekly temperature anomaly in the **Niño 3.4 region** (the central Pacific zone used to track ENSO) is sitting right at **+0.9°C** according to the latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center and IRI diagnostics. This indicates a quickly organizing, developing El Niño state.

Here is how this current +0.9°C anomaly stacks up against the same time in May during the past three strong El Niño events (1997, 2015, and 2023):

### May Anomaly Comparison: Niño 3.4 Region

| El Niño Event Year | May Weekly/Early-May Anomaly | Final Peak Strength Achieved |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **2026 (Current)** | **+0.9°C** | *TBD (Forecasted to develop through winter 2026-27)* |
| **2023** | **+0.5°C to +0.8°C** *(0.5°C mid-May, rose to 0.8°C by month's end)* | **Strong / Very Strong** (Peaked at +2.0°C) |
| **2015** | **+1.0°C** | **Very Strong "Super" El Niño** (Peaked at +2.6°C) |
| **1997** | **+1.0°C to +1.4°C** *(Warming exploded aggressively during April/May)* | **Very Strong "Super" El Niño** (Peaked at +2.4°C) |

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### Key Takeaways from the Data

* **Ahead of 2023’s Pace:** At +0.9°C, May 2026 is starting out significantly warmer than the early stages of the recent 2023–2024 strong El Niño, which was only hovering around +0.5°C to +0.8°C at this exact point in May 2023.
* **Chasing the "Super" El Niños:** This current reading is just a notch below the pacing of the legendary 1997 and 2015 "Super" El Niño events, which were already sitting at or slightly above +1.0°C by mid-to-late May.
* **The Subsurface Heat Fuel:** Climate scientists point out that the subsurface ocean heat content right now is incredibly high—more than *twice* what was observed at this time in May 2023. This massive reservoir of warm water under the surface is providing serious fuel for the 2026 event.

> **A Note on New NOAA Tracking:** Effective February 2026, NOAA officially shifted to using the **Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)** to measure ENSO. Because climate change is warming the *entire* global ocean, the new index subtracts the overall tropical average warming to better isolate the actual atmospheric impacts. By the old, traditional metrics, the 2026 numbers look even more dramatic, but the relative +0.9°C shows the baseline coupling is strong.

While a hot start in May doesn't strictly guarantee a record-breaking peak by December, the atmosphere and ocean are locking into alignment remarkably fast this year.

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