Climate Change News & Discussions

[weatheriscool]

Greenland Glaciers Have Lost 1,000 Gigatons More Ice Than We Thought
Scientists studied the edges of Greenland's glaciers, adding 20% to the total melting.
By Ryan Whitwam January 17, 2024

Climate scientists are sometimes accused of focusing too much on the worst-case scenarios, but a new study suggests that, if anything, they've been too conservative in their predictions of climate change. Analysis of Greenland's ice sheet shows that scientists missed more than 1,000 gigatons of ice loss from the island's glaciers. This could have major implications for the ocean currents that are essential to life as we know it.

Almost all of Greenland's landmass is coated in thick glaciers, but they're slimming down considerably. Climate scientists have long monitored the loss of Greenland's glaciers, which are a major contributor to the rise in sea levels. Scientists have previously estimated that Greenland's ice sheet lost 5,000 gigatons of ice between 1985 and 2022. However, the new analysis looked at more parts of the glacier to discover the missing 1,000 gigatons.

https://www.extremetech.com/science/gre ... we-thought

[caltrek]

Climate Denialism on YouTube Has Evolved Into Something Else
by Kate Yoder
January 17, 2024

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) Imagine if you could walk from your house to anywhere you needed to go in less than 15 minutes: the pharmacy, the bakery, the gym, and then back to the bakery. In a certain, conspiracy-addled corner of the internet, this urban planning concept of “15-minute cities” gets a shady, sinister gloss. Conspiracy theorists evoke COVID restrictions and tout efforts to create walkable cities as steps toward “climate lockdowns.” They warn of a plot by the World Economic Forum to restrict people’s movements, trapping and surveilling them in their neighborhoods.

“They want to take away your cars,” claims Clayton Morris, a former Fox News host, in a YouTube video that’s been viewed 1.7 million times.

YouTube is riddled with false claims like these, so it’s the place to document the evolution of arguments against taking action on climate change. A new report from the Center for Countering Digital Hate, a nonprofit based in London and Washington, DC, working to stop the spread of disinformation, analyzed 12,000 videos from channels that promoted lies about climate change on YouTube over the last six years. Over that time, the reality of climate change long predicted by scientists has become increasingly difficult to dismiss. The report, released on Tuesday, found a dramatic shift from “old denial” arguments—that global warming isn’t real and isn’t caused by humans—to new arguments bent on undermining trust in climate solutions.

“The success is that the science has won this debate on anthropogenic climate change,” said Imran Ahmed, the nonprofit’s founder and CEO. “The opponents of action have shifted their attention.”

The report suggests that, rather than doing a victory lap, climate advocates may want to focus on defending climate policies and renewable energy as necessary and effective. As the world was besieged by intense heat, expansive wildfires, and catastrophic floods in recent years, YouTubers promoting disinformation increasingly embraced “new denial” narratives, such as that solar panels will destroy the economy and the environment, or that the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a “fraud.”

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... prageru/

[wjfox]

Seabed trawling found to be a major source of global CO2 emissions

18 January 2024

Bottom trawling releases around 340 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year, according to the first study to estimate these emissions. That is nearly 1 per cent of all global CO2 emissions, a major contribution that has been overlooked until now.

Trawling involves dragging weighted nets across the seafloor to catch bottom-dwelling fish, crustaceans and shellfish. This practice is widely used around the world, but it is controversial because the fishing gear damages seafloor environments such as cold water reefs, where some corals may be thousands of years old.

“Bottom trawling is an extremely destructive form of fishing as the nets and weights dragged along the bottom destroy marine habitats that can take many years to re-establish and recover,” says Mika Peck at the University of Sussex, UK, who wasn’t involved in the research.

It also stirs up sediments, releasing the oxygen that microbes need to break down organic matter into carbon dioxide. Those sediments might otherwise continue to build up for many millennia, with the organic matter in them preserved by low-oxygen conditions – meaning the carbon is effectively locked away.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/24 ... emissions/

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

Economics: Sea Level Rises Could Cost EU and UK Economies Up to 872 Billion Euros by 2100
January 18, 2024

Introduction:

(Eurekalert) Damage caused by sea level rises could cost the EU and UK economies up to 872 billion Euros in total by the end of the century, according to a modelling study published in Scientific Reports.

Ignasi Cortés Arbués, Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis, Tatiana Filatova and colleagues modelled the potential economic impacts of sea level rises for 271 European regions by 2100 under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5) with no new coastal protection measures implemented after 2015. They combined a previously developed economic model with data on projected sea-level rise impacts, investment trends, and the distribution of economic losses caused by 155 flooding events across Europe between 1995 and 2016. They estimated potential economic losses and gains compared to a scenario with no sea level rises and 2% annual economic growth across all regions. They also modelled the impact of targeted investment in different economic sectors on regional economies following sea level rises.

The authors estimate that under a high emissions scenario sea level rises could cause 872 billion Euros of combined economic losses across the UK and EU by 2100, compared to a scenario of no sea level rises. They observed regional differences in the economic impacts of sea level rises, with the majority of economic losses — up to 21% regional gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 — concentrated in coastal regions such as Veneto and Emilia-Romagna in Italy and Zachodniopomorskie in Poland. Other regions that incurred relatively higher economic losses were concentrated around the Baltic Sea, the Belgian coast, western France and Greece. However, they found that inland regions — such as in Germany, Austria, and Hungary — experienced economic gains of up to 1% regional GDP by 2100. The authors propose that this could be due to production relocating from flooded coastal regions to inland regions.

Although targeted investment in the logistics, public services, construction, and utilities sectors had negligible impacts on the UK and EU economy as a whole under a high emissions scenario, it did reduce some regional losses with a negligible cost to the overall UK and EU economy. Regions that particularly benefitted from targeted investment were Lincolnshire, East Yorkshire, and Kent in the UK, Bremen and Weser-Ems in Germany, and West-Vlaanderen in Belgium.

Together, the findings highlight the need for region-specific economic policies to address the uneven impacts of sea levels on different regions and their economies.

Read more about the authors of the study here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1031233

[caltrek]

From the Nature article discussed in the above post:
Distribution of Economic Damages Due to Climate-driven Sea-level Rise Across European Regions and Sectors
January, 2024

Extract:

(Nature) Climate change threatens economic development globally, with distinct disparities in accelerating risks across regions. Particularly, climate-induced sea-level rise (SLR) is an increasing concern. Its destructive potential impacts areas where productive capital and population cluster: coastal cities and regions. These regions experience rapid population growth, leaving over 200 million people in Europe alone—i.e., circa 44% of the EU&UK populations live within 50 km from the coastline—at risk of coastal flooding and significant economic disruption as a result. Furthermore, these coastal regions contribute to nearly 40% of the European Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and an impressive 75% of Europe’s international trade volume is carried out through maritime routes. However, the exposure and vulnerability of the European coastline is uneven. The varying degrees of regional climate-driven SLR, the structure of coastal economies and their private and public adaptation capacities could lead to asymmetric economic losses locally, and unequal indirect effects that spillover throughout the European economy.
…
…national level SLR losses misrepresent the actual extent of damages for coastal regions. For example, Poland only loses 0.80% of its GDP in 2100, which may seem like a modest loss given the gravity of the physical damages experienced. Yet, GDP regional assessments show Zachodniopomorskie (PL42) and Pomorskie (PL63) in northern Poland losing 12.10% and 9.58% respectively—both an order of magnitude larger than the national losses. Italy suffers one of the largest national GDP losses in the EU at 4.43%. The regional analysis highlights that this is driven by the huge losses in Veneto (20.84% regional GDP loss) and Emilia-Romagna (10.16% regional GDP loss). These two regions combined contributed 18.32% to the Italian GDP in 2015. These losses are evidently calamitous for these regions, and they build up over time (Table 1 – see linked article) as the capital damages accumulate in the economy, slowing down long-term economic regional development. Similar assessments can be made for other European economies like France or Greece. These examples make it evident that the choice of geographical aggregation used in analysing the economic effects of SLR matters both to the immediate magnitude of losses and the significance of the long-term effects on economic growth.

Read more here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-48136-y

[caltrek]

Most Earth System Models are Missing Key Piece of Future Climate Puzzle
January 18, 2024

Introduction:

(Eurekalert) The way science is funded is hampering Earth System Models and may be skewing important climate predictions, according to a new comment published in Nature Climate Change by Woodwell Climate Research Center and an international team of model experts.

Emissions from thawing permafrost, frozen ground in the North that contains twice as much carbon as the atmosphere does and is thawing due to human-caused climate warming, are one of the largest uncertainties in future climate projections. But accurate representation of permafrost dynamics is missing from the major models that project future carbon emissions.

Only two of the eleven Earth System Models (ESMs) used in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report include permafrost carbon cycling at all, and those that do currently use over-simplified approximations that don’t capture the fully dynamic ways that permafrost carbon can be released into the atmosphere as the climate warms. Processes that researchers have observed in the field, such as the way abrupt permafrost thaw can create ponds and lakes and change surface hydrology, run counter to these approximations but have large implications for permafrost carbon and its potential impact on the global climate.

“What happens to the carbon in permafrost is one of the biggest unknowns about our future climate,” said Christina Schaedel, senior research scientist at Woodwell Climate Research Center and lead author of the report. “Earth System Models are critical to predicting where, how and when this carbon will be released, but modeling teams currently don’t have the resources they need to depict permafrost accurately. If we want more accurate climate predictions, that needs to change.”

Earth System Models, the supercomputer-driven programs that can forecast future carbon emissions and climate dynamics, can predict only the processes that they represent. And as scientists learn more about the complex physical and biogeochemical interactions that make up the Earth system, ESMs have grown in complexity, encompassing more and more processes. In practice, that means years of highly technical code development, integrating observational data, and parameterizing and testing the model.

Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1031461

caltrek’s comment: The article goes on to note that “substantial funding, on the order of multiple millions of dollars per ESM, is needed to provide the necessary infrastructure and support needed for model development,” Sadly, governments seem to be too pre-occupied with fighting over real estate in the Ukraine and Gaza, policing women’s wombs for any sign of abortion activity, etc. to funnel money toward such research needs.

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

Why the COP28 Climate Pact Likely Won’t Cut It
by Fred Pearce
January 21, 2024

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) Climate negotiators meeting in Dubai last month pledged to chart a course for stabilizing the climate system using good science. But many scientists say these promises are at best ill-defined and at worst a travesty of good science—vague and full of loopholes.

The UN climate conference in Dubai agreed on an action plan for two key objectives: to keep the world on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F), and to stay below this threshold by achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Negotiators pledged that both objectives would be pursued “in keeping with the science.”

But neither of the objectives have agreed definitions that would allow a judgment on whether they have been achieved. Two studies published during the Dubai event exposed the problem and revealed wide gaps opening over both the 1.5-degree and net-zero targets, exposing the tensions between political expediency and scientific probity.

On the 1.5-degree target, British meteorologists reported in the journal Nature that a lack of agreement on how to measure global average temperatures is likely to delay formal recognition that the threshold has been exceeded by up to a decade. The result, warns lead author Richard Betts of the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre, will be “distraction and delay just at the point when climate action is most urgent,” resulting in temperature “overshoot” and a need for highly expensive—and unproven—actions later to reverse warming.

Additional extract:

Some Eastern forests (in the U.S.), especially in the Appalachians, are absorbing carbon at a fast rate, through a combination of natural regeneration after historic deforestation and the fertilization effect of increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Taking advantage of this, submissions to the UN by the Environmental Protection Agency offset 11.9 percent of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions against carbon uptake in forests and other managed lands. But a study last year by William Anderegg at the University of Utah and colleagues highlighted a “striking uncertainty” about how this figure might change going forward because of climate change, including “substantial risks of carbon losses…in regions where forest carbon offset projects are currently located.”

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... science/

[caltrek]

The Clean Energy Transition May Be Cheaper Than We Thought
by Dan Gearino
January 20, 2024

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) The global transition to clean energy has a cost, but it may be a lot lower than the figures that sometimes get thrown around. The differences are large, amounting to trillions and even tens of trillions of dollars.

A new analysis from RMI, the clean energy research and advocacy group, identifies what its authors say is a basic flaw in many of those estimates: They don’t fully take into account the decrease in fossil fuel spending.

Additional extract:

…global economy and energy spending are both growing, and would grow regardless of whether the system was based on fossil fuels or not.

A fairer comparison would be between an economy aiming for net-zero emissions and one with a “business as usual” scenario with a slower transition to clean energy, he said.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... timates/

[weatheriscool]

One billion people left dangerously exposed to heat stress by gaps in climate monitoring
https://phys.org/news/2024-01-billion-p ... posed.html
by Emma Ramsay, The Conversation

2023 was the hottest year on record. Humidity is rising too. Heat and humidity are a dangerous combination, threatening all aspects of our lives and livelihoods.

Climate change is pushing humid heat dangerously close to the upper limits of what people can survive. Parts of the world are on track for conditions beyond the limits of human tolerance.

Yet our new research published in One Earth shows poor weather station coverage across the tropics leads to underestimates of heat stress in cities. This means global climate change assessments probably overlook the local impacts on people.

Concentrated across tropical Asia and Africa, informal settlements, commonly known as "slums," are on the front line of climate exposure. The shortfalls in climate monitoring leave these communities dangerously vulnerable to rising humid heat. With few options to adapt, millions could be forced to seek refuge away from the hottest parts of the tropics.

[caltrek]

State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance: 2024 Science and Policy Update – Draft Released for Public Comment
January 2024

Introduction:

OPC is pleased to release the draft State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance: 2024 Science and Policy Update (Guidance), which will update and replace the previous 2018 State of California Sea-Level Rise Guidance. This report consists of the best available science on sea level rise and coastal impacts with pragmatic and practical approaches for using this new scientific information in planning and decision-making.

Sea level rise and increased climate-driven flooding will continue to threaten public health and safety, critical infrastructure, coastal habitats, private property, and public access in California. To build resilience for coastal communities and ecosystems, thoughtful science-based planning and adaptation actions need to happen now. This Guidance, coupled with the recently launched Senate Bill 1 Sea Level Rise Adaptation Grant Program and $660 million maintained in the Governor’s FY 24/25 Budget for critical coastal resilience programs and projects, will help prepare California for sea level rise.

Released for public review and comment, this Guidance is updated approximately every five years and includes updated projected sea level rise through 2150 and guidance to help state, tribal, local, and regional jurisdictions integrate this science into coastal adaptation projects, resilience planning, and investments.

Read more here: https://opc.ca.gov/2024/01/draft-slr-guidance-2024/

Access the draft report at this link: https://opc.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2 ... -508.pdf

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

[Powers]

Nobody would care? Specifically anything after WW2.

[weatheriscool]

Rising sea levels could lead to more methane emitted from wetlands
https://phys.org/news/2024-01-sea-metha ... lands.html
by Aliyah Kovner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

As sea levels rise due to global warming, ecosystems are being altered. One small silver lining, scientists have believed, is that the tidal wetlands found in estuaries might produce less methane—a potent greenhouse gas—as the increasing influx of seawater makes these habitats less hospitable to methane-producing microbes.

However, research from biologists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and UC Berkeley indicates that these assumptions aren't always true. After examining the microbial, chemical, and geological features of 11 wetland zones, the team found that a wetland region exposed to a slight amount of seawater was emitting surprisingly high levels of methane—far more than any of the freshwater sites.

Their results, now published in mSystems, indicate that the factors governing how much greenhouse gas is stored or emitted in natural landscapes are more complex and difficult to predict than we thought.

[caltrek]

Integrated Design of Global Ocean Observing System Essential to Monitor Climate Change
January 29, 2024

Introduction:

(Eurekalert) We know that our climate is changing. Extreme weather events are becoming more common, sea levels are rising and overall, our planet is getting warmer. Monitoring these changes is critical. One of the best indicators of climate change is the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) estimate, a measurement of overall oceanic temperature calculated by gathering water temperature data in oceans around the world in differing locations, at varying depths and across time. The data necessary to calculate the OHC over such a wide-spread area is gathered by the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), an integrated network of platforms and instrumentation spread out over the world’s oceans. The platforms range from free drifting instrumented floats to instrument packages deployed by research vessels all the way to data loggers attached to pinnipeds such as southern elephant seals. Given the geographical range and technological variety of the GOOS system, and the essential nature of the data being collected, understanding the impact of the differing platforms on the data is essential information.

“However, it is not known the relative contributions of various instrumental systems, i.e. do we just need one system, or do we need all of them?” said Lijing Cheng, the paper’s author, a scientist at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Beijing, China. When he looked at the importance of the data gathered from each type of platform on the robustness of the overall OHC estimate Cheng found that “we need an integrated GOOS to fully monitor ocean warming. Different instrumental systems complement each other.”

This study was published on Dec. 20 in Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research.

Read more of the Eurekalert article here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1032780

Read a presentation of the results of the study as published in Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research here: https://spj.science.org/doi/pdf/10.34133/olar.0037

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

From Throwing Soup to Suing Governments, There’s Strategy to Climate Activism’s Seeming Chaos − Here’s Where It’s Headed Next
by Shannon Gibson

Introduction:

(The Conversation) Climate activism has been on a wild ride lately, from the shock tactics of young activists throwing soup on famous paintings to a surge in climate lawsuits by savvy plaintiffs.

While some people consider disruptive “antics” like attacking museum artwork with food to be confusing and alienating for the public, research into social movements shows there is a method to the seeming madness.

By strategically using both radical forms of civil disobedience and more mainstream public actions, such as lobbying and state-sanctioned demonstrations, activists can grab the public’s attention while making less aggressive tactics seem much more acceptable.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/from-throw ... xt-219545

[Time_Traveller]

Antarctica mysteries to be mapped by robot plane

21 hours ago

A team of scientists and engineers have landed in Antarctica to test a drone that will help experts forecast the impacts of climate change.

The autonomous plane will map areas of the continent that have been out of bounds to researchers.

It has been put to the test in extreme weather around Wales' highest peaks.

Its first experiment will survey the mountains under an ice sheet to predict how quickly the ice could melt and feed into global sea-level rise.

Scientists want to understand Antarctica better but they are limited by the existing technology.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68170278