Since it's better to be safe than sorry—especially when the historical track record is not so great—Italy is officially making evacuation plans for the possible future eruption of the Campi Flegrei supervolcano, which is located roughly 12 miles outside of Naples. That the volcano is inching towards a possible eruption (the first one since 1538) isn't a new development. The volcano, the crust of which is reportedly weakening, has been experiencing small earthquakes for a while now, and as Thrillist previously reported, in April alone it counted more than 600 quakes. In the last month, the number of earthquakes spiked to 1,100.
While scientists claim that the eruption is "not at all guaranteed" and while this isn't the first time the volcano has teased a potential outburst, the Italian government announced this week it is choosing to be careful and make evacuation plans. Just in case, lest the Pompeii disaster be repeated! According to officials, the mass evacuation would affect tens of thousands of people living around the volcanic area, Euronews reports. If you include all the nearby towns, the combined population that would be impacted surpasses half a million.
The plan also calls for new precautionary measures, including checking the strength of buildings after all the aforementioned small earthquakes. Per the Italian government, such measures would be discussed at a cabinet meeting. Additionally, Civil Protection Minister Nello Musumeci said that further resources are expected to be directed towards the local civil protection (so that it can better assist in case of an emergency) and to fund an awareness campaign.
However, there's no need to stress for now. On top of the eruption not being certain at all, people living in the area shouldn't worry about being evacuated anytime soon. According to Musumeci, evacuations would only happen in the event of "extreme necessity." If an eruption did happen, people would be immediately evacuated outside of the area via either private or public transport within three days.
Why We Need To Pay Attention To The San Andreas Fault by Tom Hale
October 13, 2023
Introduction:
(IFL Science) The San Andreas Fault carves through the Californias at the point where the Pacific Plate stands toe-to-toe with the North American Plate. The boundaries between tectonic plates are often hotbeds of earthquake activity, and this 1,200-kilometer (750-mile) fault line is no different. However, the San Andreas Fault is especially worrying for geologists, not to mention the millions of people who live along its course.
A rupture in the San Andreas Fault was the cause of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, which killed some 3,000 people and destroyed the vast majority of the city, leaving half the population homeless.
This was certainly not a one-off event. In 1857, a rupture of the San Andreas Fault in central and southern California triggered the Fort Tejon earthquake, which clocked in at around 7.9 magnitude. Just a few people were killed, but it’s often reported as one of the greatest earthquakes ever recorded in the US.
Earthquakes are tricky to predict with certainty. However, by studying historical records and computer modeling, geologists estimate that the San Andreas Fault likely causes significant earthquakes every couple of centuries. It’s not a matter of “if” another earthquake will strike the area, but “when.”
“Based on models taking into account the long-term rate of slip on the San Andreas fault and the amount of offset that occurred on the fault in 1906, the best guess is that 1906-type earthquakes occur at intervals of about 200 years. Because of the time needed to accumulate slip equal to a 20-foot [6-meter] offset, there is only a small chance (about 2 percent) that such an earthquake could occur in the next 30 years,” the United States Geological Survey (USGS) website reads.
California Supervolcano is Cooling Off but May Still Cause Quakes October 18, 2023
Introduction:
(Eurekalert) Since the 1980s, researchers have observed significant periods of unrest in a region of California's Eastern Sierra Nevada mountains characterized by swarms of earthquakes as well as the ground inflating and rising by almost half an inch per year during these periods. The activity is concerning because the area, called the Long Valley Caldera, sits atop a massive dormant supervolcano. Seven hundred and sixty thousand years ago, the Long Valley Caldera was formed in a violent eruption that sent 650 cubic kilometers of ash into the air—a volume that could cover the entire Los Angeles area in a layer of sediment 1 kilometer thick.
What is behind the increased activity in the last few decades? Could it be that the area is preparing to erupt again? Or could the uptick in activity actually be a sign that the risk of a massive eruption is decreasing?
To answer these questions, Caltech researchers have created the most detailed underground images to date of the Long Valley Caldera, reaching depths up to 10 kilometers within the Earth's crust. These high-resolution images reveal the structure of the earth beneath the caldera and show that the recent seismic activity is a result of fluids and gases being released as the area cools off and settles down.
The work was conducted in the laboratory of Zhongwen Zhan (PhD '14), professor of geophysics. A paper describing the research appears in the journal Science Advances on October 18.
"We don't think the region is gearing up for another supervolcanic eruption, but the cooling process may release enough gas and liquid to cause earthquakes and small eruptions," says Zhan.
Lava studies suggest Earth's core is leaking
By Michael Irving
October 23, 2023
Scientists from Caltech and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) have found evidence that Earth’s core is leaking. High levels of a particular isotope of helium were found in lava flows in Canada, which the team proposes originated in the planet’s core.
Although we seem content to waste it by blowing it into balloons, helium is relatively rare on Earth. Why? Your first instinct is probably right – it literally floats into the upper atmosphere and usually escapes into space. There are however some reserves of the stuff deep underground, in the Earth’s mantle and core, which is a relic from when the planet was forming from a nebula that also birthed the Sun.
Bits of Theia Might be in Earth’s Mantle by David Dickinson
Updated November 2, 2023
Introduction:
(Sky & Telescope) Qian Yuan (Arizona State University) and colleagues have now published the work described below, showing that bits of Theia (the giant impactor that helped create the Moon) survived for billions of years as two huge, dense blobs within Earth's mantle. In the November 2nd Nature, the team published updated work that includes significant additional computer modeling of both the impact itself and the motions within Earth's mantle to make that case.
Yuan points out that, according to the simulations, the collision didn't melt Earth's whole mantle."The lower half of Earth's mantle is mostly solid, and it captures an amount of Theia's mantle (about 2% of Earth's whole mass)," he says, adding that this amount is consistent with the blobs found in the mantle. "Thus, both the ancient planetary evidence and current Earth observation agree with each other that the two blobs likely originated from the impactor Theia."
Researchers out of Arizona State University (ASU) made their case in a great piece of planetary forensics presented at the virtual 52nd Lunar and Planetary Science Conference. Their study posits that the large Theia impactor that struck Earth early on in its history, leading to the Moon's formation, might have left large, dense masses deep in our planet’s mantle today. The study will appear in Geophysical Research Letters.
Violent Eruptions Still Continuing Off the Coast of Iwoto Island by Tairiku Kurosawa
November 4, 2023
Introduction:
(Asahi Shimbun) Eruptions from an undersea volcano continued spewing plumes of smoke and ash Nov. 3 around a new islet taking shape off the coast of distant Iwoto island (formerly known as Iwojima) in the Pacific Ocean.
The volcanic activity is occurring in the Ogasawara island chain, some 1,200 kilometers south of Tokyo.
Along with the cooling magma thrown up by the eruptions, pumice started creating a small hill on the emerging islet.
“(The activity) has shifted to one of continuous eruptions,” said Setsuya Nakada, professor emeritus of volcanic geology at the University of Tokyo, who was aboard an Asahi Shimbun plane that flew over the islet on Nov. 3.
“It will likely move to one in which lava starts spewing out,” he said.
Researchers at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) have succeeded in measuring the Earth's rotation more exactly than ever before. The ring laser at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell can now be used to capture data at a quality level unsurpassed anywhere in the world. The measurements will be used to determine the Earth's position in space, benefit climate research, and make climate models more reliable.
Care to take a quick step down to the basement and see how fast the Earth has been turning in the last few hours? Now you can at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell. TUM researchers have improved the ring laser there so that it can provide daily current data, which until now has not been possible at comparable quality levels.
