https://phys.org/news/2024-01-brazilian ... ammal.html
by André Julião, FAPESP
The foreseeable effects of climate change on the Caatinga, the semi-arid shrubland and thorn forest biome in Brazil's Northeast region, will be catastrophic for most terrestrial mammal species that live there.
A study reported in the journal Global Change Biology by researchers in Brazil affiliated with the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), the Federal University of (UFPB) and the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) forecasts species loss for 91.6% of species assemblages in the Caatinga and habitat loss for 87% by 2060.
"This is the best-case scenario, which assumes humanity keeps the promises made in the Paris Agreement, cuts greenhouse gas emissions, and slows the pace of global warming forecasted for the decades ahead," said Mário Ribeiro de Moura, corresponding author of the article and coordinator of the study.
The researchers cross-tabulated data from the latest projections of future temperatures published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with occurrence data for terrestrial mammals in the Caatinga.
They used several statistical models to capture the species' physiological tolerance to the existing climate and future climate change scenarios.