(The White House) The…National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Climate Change…is the most authoritative assessment from the Intelligence Community (IC) and represents the consensus view of all 18 IC elements. The U.S. Federal Science Agencies provided the baseline observational data and climate modeling that enabled the IC to conduct the geopolitical analysis of the implications and risks to the United States….
Climate change will increasingly exacerbate a number of risks to U.S. national security interests, from physical impacts that could cascade into security challenges, to how countries respond to the climate challenge. While the IC judges that all of these risks will increase and that no country will be spared from challenges directly related to climate change.
The three broad category of risks are: 1) increased geopolitical tension as countries argue over who should be doing more, and how quickly, and compete in the ensuing energy transition; 2) cross-border geopolitical flashpoints from the physical effects of climate change as countries take steps to secure their interests; and 3) climate effects straining country-level stability in select countries and regions of concern.
... Both climate change threats and the global efforts to address climate change will influence U.S. defense strategic interests, relationships, competition, and priorities. The Department of Defense (DOD) Climate Risk Analysis (DCRA)—the first Pentagon report focused on the strategic risks of climate change—provides a starting point for a shared understanding of these risks and lays out a path forward. The DCRA describes how DOD will integrate climate considerations into strategic, planning, budget, and other key documents, as well as engagements with allies and partners. Inclusion of climate considerations across these documents will ensure that DOD considers the effects of climate change at every level, which will be essential to train, fight, and win in an increasingly complex environment.
… Climate considerations will be included in key DOD documents, such as the forthcoming National Defense Strategy, which guides the ways DOD meets national security challenges. Additionally, the DCRA will inform how the Department incorporates climate considerations into its engagements with allies and partners. For example, DOD worked closely with NATO Allies to develop a Climate Change and Security Agenda and subsequent Action Plan in June of this year.
With a focus on strategic and mission risk, the DCRA is complementary to the recently released Climate Adaption Plan (CAP), which is focused on ensuring that DOD can operate under changing climate conditions. DOD will also work in coordination with allies and partners, to prevent, mitigate, account for, and respond to defense and security risks associated with climate change.
... The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is on the frontlines of the climate crisis, with a duty to safeguard the homeland from today’s increasingly severe, frequent, and destructive climate change related emergencies, forecasting and preparing for future risks and opportunities created by tomorrow’s challenges. DHS supports all communities by leading through acute crises and envisioning the actions needed to increase our future resilience. As part of that mandate, today DHS is releasing the Strategic Framework for Addressing Climate Change, signed by Secretary Mayorkas on [October 20, 2021], to lead adaptation to changes in the climate risk landscape resulting from strategic competition, demographic trends, aging infrastructure, and emerging technology.
The Strategic Framework will guide DHS’s implementation of President Biden’s Executive Order on addressing the impacts of climate change at home and abroad, and includes the five lines of effort: empowering individuals and communities to develop climate resilience; building readiness to respond to increases in climate-driven emergencies; incorporating climate science into strategy, policy, programs, and budgets; investing in a sustainable and resilient DHS; and ensuring the DHS workforce is informed on climate change. The need to achieve equity will be a guiding principle throughout each line of effort described in the Strategic Framework.
The Framework was developed through the first-ever DHS Climate Change Action Group (CCAG), comprised of senior officials from across the Department and focused on promoting resilience and addressing multiple risks, including flooding, extreme heat, drought, and wildfires.
…In Executive Order 14013, President Biden called for an assessment of the impact climate change is having on migration. This assessment marks the first time the U.S. Government is officially recognizing and reporting on this linkage. The report identifies migration as an important form of adaptation to the impacts of climate change and in some cases, an essential response to climate threats, to livelihoods and wellbeing; therefore it requires careful management to ensure it is safe, orderly, and humane. Development and humanitarian assistance programs help address underlying causes of forced migration and displacement in the face of insecurity. Addressing individuals’ human security can decrease the likelihood of migration and the second-order implications for international security. It is critical to approach these efforts in a way that acknowledges that in almost all cases climate change is not the sole driver of migration.
The Report on the Impact of Climate Change on Migration can be found here:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u ... ration.pdf