Record-breaking heat waves have occurred recently from Delhi to the Pacific Northwest, and the number of these deadly events is expected to increase. New research from the University of Washington and Harvard University gives a range of heat impacts worldwide by the end of this century, depending on future emissions of greenhouse gases.
The study was published Aug. 25 in the open-access journal Communications Earth & Environment.
"The record-breaking heat events of recent summers will become much more common in places like North America and Europe," said lead author Lucas Vargas Zeppetello, who did the research as a doctoral student at the UW and is now a postdoctoral researcher at Harvard. "For many places close to the equator, by 2100 more than half the year will be a challenge to work outside, even if we begin to curb emissions."
"Our study shows a broad range of possible scenarios for 2100," he added. "This shows that the emissions choices we make now still matter for creating a habitable future."
The study looks at a combination of air temperature and humidity known as the "heat index" that measures impact on the human body. A "dangerous" heat index is defined by the National Weather Service as 103 F (39.4 C). An "extremely dangerous" heat index is 124 F (51 C), deemed unsafe to humans for any amount of time.
Melting Himalayan Glaciers Alter Water Supplies Near and Far by Zakir Hossain Chowdhury
August 29, 2022
Introduction:
(Undark) ON AN APRIL morning in Sagarmatha National Park, a World Heritage Site in the Himalayas that includes Mount Everest, Domi Sherpa looks out at rocky black slopes that stand starkly against snow-capped mountains. In the past, these dark swaths would have also been covered with snow and ice. But, Sherpa says, the region’s melting glaciers have increasingly exposed the rocks beneath.
The Hindu Kush Himalayas have the world’s third largest concentration of glaciers, after the Arctic and the Antarctic. For this reason, they are sometimes referred to as the “Third Pole.” The region, though, has been warming faster than the global average. The glaciers are retreating, an erasure that has accelerated in the last few decades — and they may affect the water supply for communities both near and far.
According to a 2017 study published in Nature, by 2100, only 37 to 49 percent of glacier mass in the Himalayas will remain (compared with 2005 figures) if global temperatures rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Climate experts say that the changes will continue to alter the hydrological cycle in the region. “Glaciers and glacial lakes in the high mountains are very sensitive indicators of ongoing climate change,” wrote Sudeep Thakuri, a glaciologist at Tribhuvan University in Nepal, in an email to Undark. The Himalayas are such an important water source in Asia that they are sometimes referred to as the continent’s “water towers.”
Locals have noticed the differences over the years. Anu Sherpa started climbing Everest in 1970 when he was 24 years old; he retired in 1994, and now runs a shop at Namche Bazaar. Over the years, Anu Sherpa has noticed changes in the area’s climate. The seasons are less predictable, he said. The rain doesn’t come when expected, he added, and “this time, it should have been warm, but it’s not.” Throughout the region, the changes in water levels in local rivers will likely affect farming, sanitation, and fresh drinking water.
Even people far away will feel the effects of melting glaciers. And these changes will affect a lot of people: Rivers downstream supply water to nearly a fifth of the global population.
Rapid Glacial Melt Puts India, Pakistan at High Flash Flood Risk by Jayashree Nandi
August 30, 2022
Introduction:
(Hindustan Times) 7,253. The number has become well-known over the past few days; it’s the number of glaciers in Pakistan, widely considered to be the highest concentration of glaciers outside the poles (it is).
A comparable number for India isn’t available. There’s a widely cited Isro report, which puts the number at 9,575, which would mean the country has more glaciers than Pakistan. Experts say the confusion arises because some of these lie across the line of control, which isn’t a recognized international border.
Still, this isn’t a cricket match to keep score. It is something far more serious.
Catastrophic floods in Pakistan over the past two days have revealed the vulnerability of that country to a warm summer — this year saw a heatwave across Pakistan and India in May — that results in a higher volume of glacier run-off on account of melting ice, followed by extreme monsoon rain.
At least 1,000 people have died already in Pakistan, on account of floods that are already being described as once-in-a-lifetime; millions have been displaced. The flash floods in vast swathes of the country, from north to south, with most rivers, including the Indus, Kabul, and Swat in spate.
Rising Inequality Risks Regional Collapse and Climate Catastrophe, Experts Warn in "Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity" August 30, 2022
Introduction:
(EurekAlert) Left unchecked, rising inequality in the next 50 years will lead to increasingly dysfunctional societies, making co-operation to deal with existential threats like climate change more difficult, according to ground breaking analysis being launched today in a new book, Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity. However, the world can still stabilise global temperatures below 2°C and approach an end to poverty by 2050 by enacting five ‘extraordinary turnarounds’ that break with current trends.
“We are standing on a cliff edge,” said Jorgen Randers, one of the six authors of Earth for All and co-author of The Limits to Growth published 50 years ago. “In the next 50 years, the current economic system will drive up social tensions and drive down wellbeing. We can already see how inequality is destabilising people and the planet.”
“Unless there is truly extraordinary action to redistribute wealth, things will get significantly worse. We are already sowing the seeds for regional collapse. Societies are creating vicious cycles where rising social tensions, that are exacerbated by climate breakdown, will continue to lead to a decline in trust. This risks an explosive combination of extreme political destabilisation and economic stagnation at a time when we must do everything we can to avoid climate catastrophes.”
Ahead of significant political events such as the UN General Assembly and the UN climate change convention's COP 27, Earth4All is launching Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity, which presents the results of a two-year research project, that brought together leading scientists, economic thinkers and a team of ‘systems dynamics’ computer modellers.
The book builds on the common mantra from social movements calling for “Systems Change Not Climate Change” and “People Not Profit”. It lays out what economic systems change really means for civilization and proposes five extraordinary turnarounds that provide a framework for a fair, just, and affordable economic transformation. The book tackles the fierce debate between advocates for “green growth” and supporters of “degrowth” economies.
The Arctic is no stranger to loss. As the region warms nearly four times faster than the rest of the world, glaciers collapse, wildlife suffers and habitats continue to disappear at a record pace.
Now, a new threat has become apparent: Arctic lakes are drying up, according to research published in the journal Nature Climate Change. The study, led by University of Florida Department of Biology postdoctoral researcher Elizabeth Webb, flashes a new warning light on the global climate dashboard.
Webb's research reveals that over the past 20 years, Arctic lakes have shrunk or dried completely across the pan-Arctic, a region spanning the northern parts of Canada, Russia, Greenland, Scandinavia and Alaska. The findings offer clues about why the mass drying is happening and how the loss can be slowed.
The vanishing lakes act as cornerstones of the Arctic ecosystem. They provide a critical source of fresh water for local Indigenous communities and industries. Threatened and endangered species, including migratory birds and aquatic creatures, also rely on the lake habitats for survival.
The Arctic is no stranger to loss. As the region warms nearly four times faster than the rest of the world, glaciers collapse, wildlife suffers and habitats continue to disappear at a record pace.
Now, a new threat has become apparent: Arctic lakes are drying up, according to research published in the journal Nature Climate Change. The study, led by University of Florida Department of Biology postdoctoral researcher Elizabeth Webb, flashes a new warning light on the global climate dashboard.
Webb's research reveals that over the past 20 years, Arctic lakes have shrunk or dried completely across the pan-Arctic, a region spanning the northern parts of Canada, Russia, Greenland, Scandinavia and Alaska. The findings offer clues about why the mass drying is happening and how the loss can be slowed.
The vanishing lakes act as cornerstones of the Arctic ecosystem. They provide a critical source of fresh water for local Indigenous communities and industries. Threatened and endangered species, including migratory birds and aquatic creatures, also rely on the lake habitats for survival.
To me what is particularly disturbing is the implications for carbon release into the atmosphere in the form of methane and carbon dioxide. This is discussed in the cited article.
The wreckage of a home in General Luna town, Siargao island, in the Philippines in December 2021 following Typhoon Rai, one of a series of deadly storms over the year amid mounting concern on climate change.
Earth's concentration of greenhouse gases and sea levels hit new highs in 2021, a US government report said Wednesday, showing that climate change keeps surging ahead despite renewed efforts to curb emissions.
"The data presented in this report are clear—we continue to see more compelling scientific evidence that climate change has global impacts and shows no sign of slowing," said Rick Spinrad, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
"With many communities hit with 1,000-year floods, exceptional drought and historic heat this year, it shows that the climate crisis is not a future threat but something we must address today," he said in a statement.
The rise in greenhouse gas levels comes despite an easing of fossil fuel emissions the previous year as much of the global economy slowed sharply due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The US agency said that the concentration of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere stood at 414.7 parts per million in 2021, 2.3 parts higher than in 2020.
