Climate Change News & Discussions

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caltrek
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Eastern Pacific Warming to Change Surface Temperatures in Years, Not Decades
by Kendra Leon
November 15, 2022

Introduction:
(Courthouse News) — For some time, scientists believed 2070 was the earliest they would be able to detect a change in the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperature. A study published Tuesday in Nature Communications moves that projection up by four decades, to 2030.

Dr. Tao Geng of the CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere and Dr. Wenju Cai of the Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology focused their study on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), what they called “the strongest and most consequential year-to-year climate fluctuation on the planet.” Every year with some variability in either the equatorial eastern Pacific (EP) or central Pacific (CP), ENSO creates worldwide natural events during its warm El Niño phase or cold La Niña phase.

Previous measurements of EP-ENSO and CP-ENSO had biases when it came to that variability, according to the study.

“Climate models suffer from persistent biases in their simulation of the mean equatorial climate and ENSO dynamics,” said the researchers in their study. Although some of their models continued to simulate a “too-cold climatological Pacific cold tongue,” they never fell before their 85% confidence level, and the researchers accounted for the underestimated EP-ENSO rainfall sensitivity. Combining this with 70 years of ENSO data starting from 1950 and some of the newest climate models, the researchers predict that environmental change will happen, including the Pacific Ocean's rising surface temperature, by 2030.

According to Geng, the rising surface temperature of the eastern Pacific will affect ENSO.
Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/eastern ... -decades/
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Sea level rise to dramatically speed up erosion of rock coastlines by 2100
https://phys.org/news/2022-11-sea-erosi ... lines.html
by Imperial College London

Rock coasts, which make up over half the world's coastlines, could retreat more rapidly in the future due to accelerating sea level rise.

This is according to new Imperial College London research that modeled likely future cliff retreat rates of two rock coasts in the UK. The forecasts are based on predictions of sea level rise for various greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios. The research is published today in Nature Communications.

The study found that rock coasts, traditionally thought of as stable compared to sandy coasts and soft cliffs, are likely to retreat at a rate not seen for 3,000–5,000 years.

At the UK study sites in Yorkshire and Devon, this will cause rock coast cliffs to retreat by at least 10–22 meters inland. This rate of erosion is likely between three and seven times today's rate, and potentially up to tenfold.

Senior author Dr. Dylan Rood, of Imperial's Department of Earth Science said, "Coastal erosion is one of the greatest financial risks to society of any natural hazard. Some rock cliffs are already crumbling, and within the next century, rock coast erosion rates could increase tenfold. Even rock coasts that have been stable in the last hundred years will likely respond to sea level rise by 2030."
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Tadasuke
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I very much recommend reading this about Arctic ice and the past predictions:
https://www.humanprogress.org/is-the-ar ... disappear/
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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Tadasuke wrote: Mon Nov 21, 2022 4:39 pm I very much recommend reading this about Arctic ice and the past predictions:
https://www.humanprogress.org/is-the-ar ... disappear/
Maybe stick to your CPU and GPU posts (which are excellent, btw) instead of peddling disinformation from fossil fuel industry-funded websites.
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Re: Climate Change News & Discussions

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wjfox wrote: Mon Nov 21, 2022 5:00 pm Maybe stick to your CPU and GPU posts (which are excellent, btw) instead of peddling disinformation from fossil fuel industry-funded websites.
I find climate change alarmism and misinformation detrimental to the well-being of humans and causing no good, because the cost-curves are going to be the same no matter how many scary headlines and comments are going to be written. In fact, I think climate change alarmism is a net-negative to the whole humanity. I saw hundreds of articles at Human Progress and I haven't seen any 'fossil fuel propaganda'. People will do something positive and substantial when it's economical, not when they are scared. In fact, people tend to do bad things when they are scared. I think they are presenting very good proof that they are right and correct. I find it a horrible, horrible thing to do to tell people that by leaving subsistence-level of living and scarcity behind, they are "destroying the planet". And people like Greta Thunberg aren't doing anything that actually helps solve any problems.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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Post by erowind »

Tadasuke wrote: Mon Nov 21, 2022 5:40 pm
wjfox wrote: Mon Nov 21, 2022 5:00 pm Maybe stick to your CPU and GPU posts (which are excellent, btw) instead of peddling disinformation from fossil fuel industry-funded websites.
I find climate change alarmism and misinformation detrimental to the well-being of humans and causing no good, because the cost-curves are going to be the same no matter how many scary headlines and comments are going to be written. In fact, I think climate change alarmism is a net-negative to the whole humanity. I saw hundreds of articles at Human Progress and I haven't seen any 'fossil fuel propaganda'. People will do something positive and substantial when it's economical, not when they are scared. In fact, people tend to do bad things when they are scared. I think they are presenting very good proof that they are right and correct. I find it a horrible, horrible thing to do to tell people that by leaving subsistence-level of living and scarcity behind, they are "destroying the planet". And people like Greta Thunberg aren't doing anything that actually helps solve any problems.

Absolutely no ecologist acting in good faith has suggested that developing nations be kept in the living conditions they face. Malthusianism is a false dichotomy, there are enough resources for us all to live comfortable middle class lives. Some inefficiencies like private car ownership in non-rural settings have to be replaced with mass electrification and proliferation of trains and other public transit. But there is no ecologically sound future where the majority of the world is kept poor. That said, development should not be conflated with the spread of consumerism and the “right” to an endless deluge of plastic.

The malthusian position is also pushed by the fossil fuel industry deliberately because if they can convince people that solving the ecological crises requires preventing improving living conditions than of course most people will oppose solutions. The bar just keeps moving every decade or so and eventually they will run out of lies to peddle as reality waits for no one. First it was, “climate change isn’t real,” then “there’s no proof humans caused climate change,” then “climate change is beneficial actually,” and finally, “fixing climate change will make you poor!” All lies!!!

The one aspect of truth here that is completely distorted and misrepresented by bad faith actors. Is that we in the developed nations will have to give up some things because we have genuinely created excess at the cost of everyone else, but even here a degrowth of some production sectors won’t effect most people. Things like owning more than one car, owning a megayacht, owning more than a small cabin and a single modest home (less than 2,000sft per household of 4 or less,) will have to be outlawed. The suburbs in America and Canada will have to be slowly abolished as they are the most wasteful form of urban planning ever “designed.”

There are large changes that must be made but none of them threaten the lives or wellbeing of the majority of the population. In contrast they will improve our lives. The eventual abolition of most private car ownership will instantly reduce stress levels and make air clean to breath, it will reduce emissions immensely. Eventually factory farming will have to be banned, but the meat we will consume will be lab grown and made more perfectly than ever. Monoculture lawn ownership must be banned but we will save countless labor hours and most will opt to tend private gardens of some kind instead, which are far more useful, beautiful and ecologically valuable.

As for the predictions on that website, no! Arctic sea ice at the current rate of decline will be gone in September sometime in the 2030-2060 timeframe, no one knows the exact year for sure but there is a solid scientifically verifiable time range. The consequences of a blue water arctic in the summer (and eventually all year) will destabilize the entire northern hemispheres climate even more dramatically than we have experienced in recent years.

There’s nothing “alarmist” about the truth! There’s nothing “alarmist” about screaming at a person to get out of the way of an oncoming train as they wander down the tracks. We need more truthful climate science in media that will force action. Fatalism is a consumer response encouraged by our dominant culture and media, not everyone responds that way, to the opposite effect many people facing climate despair find that taking action is the only thing that alleviates the feeling.
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erowind wrote: Mon Nov 21, 2022 7:45 pm
Tadasuke wrote: Mon Nov 21, 2022 5:40 pm
wjfox wrote: Mon Nov 21, 2022 5:00 pm ...
I find climate change alarmism and misinformation detrimental to the well-being of humans and causing no good, because the cost-curves are going to be the same no matter how many scary headlines and comments are going to be written...

Absolutely no ecologist acting in good faith has suggested that developing nations be kept in the living conditions they face. Malthusianism is a false dichotomy, there are enough resources for us all to live comfortable middle class lives. Some inefficiencies like private car ownership in non-rural settings have to be replaced with mass electrification and proliferation of trains and other public transit. But there is no ecologically sound future where the majority of the world is kept poor. That said, development should not be conflated with the spread of consumerism and the “right” to an endless deluge of plastic.

The malthusian position is also pushed by the fossil fuel industry deliberately because if they can convince people that solving the ecological crises requires preventing improving living conditions than of course most people will oppose solutions. The bar just keeps moving every decade or so and eventually they will run out of lies to peddle as reality waits for no one. First it was, “climate change isn’t real,” then “there’s no proof humans caused climate change,” then “climate change is beneficial actually,” and finally, “fixing climate change will make you poor!” All lies!!!

The one aspect of truth here that is completely distorted and misrepresented by bad faith actors. Is that we in the developed nations will have to give up some things because we have genuinely created excess at the cost of everyone else, but even here a degrowth of some production sectors won’t effect most people.
Agreed. A very good summary.

Things like owning more than one car, owning a megayacht, owning more than a small cabin and a single modest home (less than 2,000sft per household of 4 or less,) will have to be outlawed. The suburbs in America and Canada will have to be slowly abolished as they are the most wasteful form of urban planning ever “designed.”

There are large changes that must be made but none of them threaten the lives or wellbeing of the majority of the population. In contrast they will improve our lives. The eventual abolition of most private car ownership will instantly reduce stress levels and make air clean to breath, it will reduce emissions immensely. Eventually factory farming will have to be banned, but the meat we will consume will be lab grown and made more perfectly than ever. Monoculture lawn ownership must be banned but we will save countless labor hours and most will opt to tend private gardens of some kind instead, which are far more useful, beautiful and ecologically valuable.
I am not sure that I endorse this list, but it is clear that dramatic action needs to be taken.
As for the predictions on that website, no! Arctic sea ice at the current rate of decline will be gone in September sometime in the 2030-2060 timeframe, no one knows the exact year for sure but there is a solid scientifically verifiable time range. The consequences of a blue water arctic in the summer (and eventually all year) will destabilize the entire northern hemispheres climate even more dramatically than we have experienced in recent years.
I am not sure about the exact time frames, but it is clear that ice in the polar regions is declining at a rapid rate.

There’s nothing “alarmist” about the truth! There’s nothing “alarmist” about screaming at a person to get out of the way of an oncoming train as they wander down the tracks. We need more truthful climate science in media that will force action. Fatalism is a consumer response encouraged by our dominant culture and media, not everyone responds that way, to the opposite effect many people facing climate despair find that taking action is the only thing that alleviates the feeling.
An excellent conclusion.
Don't mourn, organize.

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Scientists Warn that Unabated Carbon Is Shrinking Earth's Upper Atmosphere
by Michele Starr
November 22, 2022

Introduction:
(Science Alert) Rising levels of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere could exacerbate efforts to clean up our increasingly cluttered shell of orbiting space junk.

According to two new studies, the greenhouse gas has significantly contributed to the contraction of the upper atmosphere. This contraction has been hypothesized for decades; now, for the first time, it's been actually observed.

Some of the observed shrinkage is normal, and will bounce back; but the contribution made by CO2 is, scientists say, probably permanent.

This means that defunct satellites and other bits of old technology in low Earth orbit is likely to remain in place longer due to the reduction of atmospheric drag, cluttering up the region and causing problems for newer satellites and space observations.
Read more here: https://www.sciencealert.com/unabated- ... ists-warn
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Rapidly Melting Glaciers Are Releasing a Staggering Payload of Unknown Bacteria
by Clare Watson
November 22, 2022

Introduction:
(Science Alert) Fast-melting glaciers are releasing staggering amounts of bacteria into rivers and streams, which could transform icy ecosystems, scientists warn.

In a study of glacial runoff from 10 sites across the Northern Hemisphere, researchers have estimated that continued global warming over the next 80 years could release hundreds of thousands of tonnes of bacteria into environments downstream of receding glaciers.

"We think of glaciers as a huge store of frozen water but the key lesson from this research is that they are also ecosystems in their own right," microbiologist and study author Arwyn Edwards of Aberystwyth University in the UK told the BBC.

Glaciers are masses of ice creeping ever so slowly toward the sea, carving out mountainous valleys as they go. Yet there is more to the flows than frozen water, with minerals, gases, and organic materials trapped on a one-way slide that could take tens of thousands to millions of years to terminate.

Studying the contents of glaciers is like opening the door to another time in history. Microbes entombed inside them could be a rich source of useful, new compounds, such as antibiotics. However, the researchers behind this new study say melting glaciers are releasing tonnes upon tonnes of bacteria faster than scientists can possibly catalog them.
Read more here: https://www.sciencealert.com/rapidly-m ... -bacteria
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