Climate Change News & Discussions

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caltrek
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Will Paris Agreement Succeed? Research Assesses if Governments will Make Pledges a Reality
September 1, 2022

Introduction:
(EurekAlert) Much of the world’s efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change hinge on the success of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. A new Nature Climate Change study is the first to provide scientific evidence assessing how effective governments will be at implementing their commitments to the agreement that will reduce CO2 emissions causing climate change.

The research reveals that the countries with the boldest pledges are also the most likely to achieve their goals. Europe takes the lead with the strongest commitments that are also the most credible; however, findings suggest the U.S., despite having a less ambitious commitment under Paris, is not expected to meet its pledges.

The study from the University of California San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy integrates a novel sample of registrants of the Conference of Parties (COP), consisting of more than 800 diplomatic and scientific experts who, for decades, have participated in climate policy debates. This expert group was important to survey because they are the people “in the room” when key policy decisions are made and therefore in a unique position to evaluate what their countries and other countries are likely to achieve.

They were asked to rate member nations—their own country included—to gauge pledge ambition, which is how much each country has pledged to do to mitigate global warming, in comparison to what they feasibly could do, given their economic strength, to avert a climate crisis. They also were asked to evaluate the degree to which nations have pledges that are credible.

“The pledges outlined in the accords are legally non-binding, thus the success of the agreement centers around confidence in the system that when governments make promises, they are going to live up those promises,” said the study’s lead author David Victor, professor of industrial innovation at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy and co-director of the Deep Decarbonization Initiative.

Read more of the EurekAlert article here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/963171

For the Nature Climate Change study : https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01454-x

caltrek’s comment: It should be noted that the study was completed prior to the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States. Still, the study’s lead author opines that the act “doesn’t deliver the same investment many other counties have already committed.”
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A New Study Finds Social Cost of Carbon Is More Than Triple the Current Federal Estimate
September 1, 2022

Introduction:
(EurekAlert) After years of robust modeling and analysis, a multi-institutional team led by researchers from Resources for the Future (RFF) and the University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley), has released an updated social cost of carbon estimate that reflects new methodologies and key scientific advancements. The study, published today in the journal Nature, finds that each additional ton of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere costs society $185 per ton—3.6 times the current US federal estimate of $51 per ton.

The social cost of carbon is a critical metric that measures the economic damages, in dollars, that result from the emission of one additional ton of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. A high social cost of carbon can motivate more stringent climate policies, as it increases the estimated benefits of reducing greenhouse gases.

“Our estimate, which draws on recent advances in the scientific and economic literature, shows that we are vastly underestimating the harm of each additional ton of carbon dioxide that we release into the atmosphere,” said RFF President and CEO Richard G. Newell, who coauthored the peer-reviewed paper. “The implication is that the benefits of government policies and other actions that reduce global warming pollution are greater than has been assumed.”

The study, led by UC Berkeley Associate Professor David Anthoff and RFF Fellow Kevin Rennert, brought together leading researchers from institutions across the United States to develop important updates to social cost of carbon modeling. These advances include consideration of the probability of different socioeconomic and emissions trajectories far into the future; the incorporation of a modern representation of the climate system; and state-of-the-art scientific methodologies for assessing the effects of climate change on agriculture, temperature-related deaths, energy expenditures, and sea-level rise. The estimate also takes into account an updated approach to evaluating future climate risks through ‘discounting’ that is linked to future economic uncertainty. The $185-per-ton value is the central estimate of many that includes the inherent uncertainty in these trajectories.

Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/963609
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A 'doomsday glacier' the size of Florida is disintegrating faster than thought
Source: Washington Post
Thwaites Glacier, known as the “doomsday glacier” for the risk it poses to global sea levels, is retreating faster than previously thought, study shows


A large glacier in Antarctica that could raise sea levels several feet is disintegrating faster than last predicted, according to a new study published Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The Thwaites Glacier — dubbed the “doomsday glacier” because scientists estimate that without it and its supporting ice shelves, sea levels could rise more than 3 to 10 feet — lies in the western part of the continent. After recently mapping it in high-resolution, a group of international researchers found that the glacial expanse experienced a phase of “rapid retreat” sometime in the past two centuries — over a duration of less than six months.

According to a news release accompanying the study, researchers concluded that the glacier had “lost contact with a seabed ridge” and is now retreating at a speed of 1.3 miles per year — a rate double what they predicted between 2011 and 2019.

Unlike some other glaciers that are connected to dry land, Thwaites is grounded in the seabed, making it more vulnerable to warming waters as a result of human-induced climate change. Thwaites already accounts for about 4 percent of annual sea level rise.

Crucial Antarctic ice shelf could fail within five years, scientists say

“You can’t take away Thwaites and leave the rest of Antarctica intact,” said Alastair Graham, a marine geologist at the University of South Florida and the co-author of the study, in a phone interview.

He described the consequences of losing Thwaites “existential.”

According to the United Nations, more than 40 percent of the world’s human population lives within 60 miles of the coast — areas that will be hit hard by rising tides.


Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate- ... 00007F2A97
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Southern Ocean takes on the heat of climate change
https://phys.org/news/2022-09-southern- ... imate.html
by University of New South Wales

In the past 50 years, the oceans have absorbed more than 90% of the excess heat caused by our carbon dioxide emissions, with one ocean absorbing the vast majority.

"The Southern Ocean dominates this ocean heat uptake, due in part to the geographic set-up of the region," said UNSW Ph.D. candidate Maurice Huguenin, the lead author of the new study published today in Nature Communications.

"Antarctica, which is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, is also surrounded by strong westerly winds," Mr Huguenin said.

"These winds influence how the waters absorb heat, and around Antarctica they can exert this influence while remaining uninterrupted by land masses—this is key to the Southern Ocean being responsible for pretty much all of the net global ocean heat uptake," he said.

Mr Huguenin said that these winds blow over what is effectively an infinite distance—cycling uninterrupted at southern latitudes—which continuously draws cold water masses to the surface. The waters are pushed northward, readily absorbing vast quantities of heat from the atmosphere, before the excess heat is pumped into the ocean's interior around 45–55°S.

But, while ocean warming helps slow the pace of climate change, it is not without cost said co-author Professor Matthew England at UNSW Science and Deputy Director of ACEAS.
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Rising seas could swallow millions of U.S. acres within decades
Source: Washington Post
Researchers at Climate Central took scientific data on projected sea level rise, as well as information about state tidal boundaries, and combined that with records on more than 50 million individual properties across hundreds of U.S. counties to identify parcels most likely at risk.

Their conclusion: Nearly 650,000 individual, privately owned parcels, across as many as 4.4 million acres of land, are projected to fall below changing tidal boundaries by 2050. The land affected could swell to 9.1 million acres by 2100. According to Thursday’s analysis, properties with a collective assessed value of $108 billion could be affected by the end of the century, based on current emissions. But, the authors noted, because complete property values were not available for all counties, the actual total is likely to be far higher.

The changes also could come gradually at first, then quickly. In many communities, the authors wrote, structures are clustered in areas that historically are on safe ground. But once rising seas reach those densely developed elevations, “the number of affected buildings sharply increases.”

“As the sea is rising, tide lines are moving up elevation, upslope and inland,” said Don Bain, a senior adviser at Climate Central and an expert in sea level rise, who led the analysis. “People really haven’t internalized that yet — that ‘Hey, I’m going to have something taken away from me by the sea.’ ”
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topst ... r-AA11Br7i
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Climate tipping points of coral die-off, ice sheet collapse closer than thought
Source: Reuters
Five tipping points — the disintegration of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, coral reef die-offs, collapse of the Labrador-Irminger Seas convection and abrupt permafrost thaw — could happen now, the team finds.

Arctic permafrost thaw would release huge amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Coral reef die-offs would obliterate the marine food web.

"At the moment, they are possible rather than likely," McKay stressed, but he added, "it's definitely concerning."

At 1.5C of warming, another five tipping points would be reachable.
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topst ... r-AA11C9K4
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How King Charles III Might Rule
by Jen Kirby
September 8, 2022

Introduction:
(Vox) At the COP26 climate conference last year in Glasgow, Scotland, then-Prince Charles warned world leaders that they must adopt a “war-like footing” to deal with the global threat of climate change and biodiversity loss.

Charles has made similar pleas since and in the years before; he has championed environmental causes since it was a bit unusual for someone in his public position to do so. And now, he may be among the most prominent figures to take up the cause, as he ascends the throne following the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth II.
Further extract:
There are many questions about what this leadership will look like, but as experts said, Charles has a lot of credibility at least on this global issue, as he’s been warning about climate change since the 1990s. The challenge, Owens said, is that King Charles doesn’t have any real political power, and ultimately, to tackle climate change, governments are going to need to make tough policy choices and act. But the monarchy can also draw on its soft power — for example, state dinners or visits — to try to advocate for climate action. And of course, by reorienting the monarchy around this global issue, it is a way for the institution to stay relevant and maybe even necessary.
Read more here: https://www.vox.com/world/2022/9/8/227 ... beth-dies
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