OPEC update
EIA's short term energy outlook
Peak Oil
-
MythOfProgress
- Posts: 140
- Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:42 am
-
MythOfProgress
- Posts: 140
- Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:42 am
Re: Peak Oil
https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/the-permian-basin
The Permian Basin Is Depleting Faster Than We Thought
I do actually agree with most of this reports reasoning. But I'd take it with a grain of salt still, this investment firm consistently makes claims about resource crises as if they are happening tomorrow when in reality it's a much more gradual event. I'm posting the article still because it's not easy to find this kind of reporting from more conventional sources and the statistics cited in the article are real. The conclusion to draw isn't necessarily that gas prices are going to 9$ a gallon in 2024 but rather just that the Permian Basin has likely peaked and current data is showing that oil fracking yields in the US generally have likely peaked. This does have implications long term, but I think it's dubious to make any short term assertions.
The Permian Basin Is Depleting Faster Than We Thought
The most crucial development in global oil markets is depletion in the Permian basin. We first warned about this in 2018, predicting the Permian would peak in 2025. In retrospect, our analysis was too conservative. We now believe the basin could peak within the next twelve months. The implications will be as profound as when United States oil production peaked in 1970, starting a chain of events ultimately sending prices up five-fold over ten years. If we are correct, this could not come at a worse time for oil markets: inventories are tight, production in the rest of the world is declining, and investors are incredibly complacent.
I do actually agree with most of this reports reasoning. But I'd take it with a grain of salt still, this investment firm consistently makes claims about resource crises as if they are happening tomorrow when in reality it's a much more gradual event. I'm posting the article still because it's not easy to find this kind of reporting from more conventional sources and the statistics cited in the article are real. The conclusion to draw isn't necessarily that gas prices are going to 9$ a gallon in 2024 but rather just that the Permian Basin has likely peaked and current data is showing that oil fracking yields in the US generally have likely peaked. This does have implications long term, but I think it's dubious to make any short term assertions.
Re: Peak Oil
Global inflation fears as oil price rises towards $100 a barrel
Sun 17 Sep 2023 12.02 BST
Oil prices are on track to reach $100 a barrel this month for the first time in 2023 after surging by almost 30% since June, after Russian and Saudi Arabian production cuts and rising demand from China.
Brent crude, the oil price benchmark, rose to a 10-month high last week of almost $94 a barrel, up from $72 a barrel at its lowest point in June – heading for its biggest quarterly increase since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The lighter US crude, West Texas Intermediate, has climbed from $67 a barrel to $90 a barrel over the same period. Both benchmarks were up by about 4% on the week.
Petrol and diesel prices in the UK have begun to rise modestly, adding 10p to the cost of a litre since June. The motoring organisation RAC said the average price of unleaded fuel was £1.52 a litre on Friday, up from £1.43 in June.
In the US, where tax makes up a smaller proportion of the price at the pumps, gasoline has jumped by more than 10% to $3.90 (£3.15) a gallon (3.8 litres).
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... 0-a-barrel
Sun 17 Sep 2023 12.02 BST
Oil prices are on track to reach $100 a barrel this month for the first time in 2023 after surging by almost 30% since June, after Russian and Saudi Arabian production cuts and rising demand from China.
Brent crude, the oil price benchmark, rose to a 10-month high last week of almost $94 a barrel, up from $72 a barrel at its lowest point in June – heading for its biggest quarterly increase since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The lighter US crude, West Texas Intermediate, has climbed from $67 a barrel to $90 a barrel over the same period. Both benchmarks were up by about 4% on the week.
Petrol and diesel prices in the UK have begun to rise modestly, adding 10p to the cost of a litre since June. The motoring organisation RAC said the average price of unleaded fuel was £1.52 a litre on Friday, up from £1.43 in June.
In the US, where tax makes up a smaller proportion of the price at the pumps, gasoline has jumped by more than 10% to $3.90 (£3.15) a gallon (3.8 litres).
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... 0-a-barrel
Re: Peak Oil
^^^ Things like this make me think that population drops will not be that much of a problem. Sure it will not be a good thing but not that bad either.
Re: Peak Oil
It is not just a decline in population that is reducing demand. It is also the increase in use of non-carbon-based fuels that serve as alternatives to fossil fuels.
This is at the core of a lot of political disputes. For example, Biden is willing to encourage use of renewables, while Trump wants to see an increase in both the supply and the demand for fossil fuels.
While policy impacts may be marginal, they are still important. They can make the difference between a slight increase in demand and a slight decrease in demand. To the extent leaders like Biden succeed, we may indeed see a demand related decline (with a lot of help from market driven development of renewables).
This is at the core of a lot of political disputes. For example, Biden is willing to encourage use of renewables, while Trump wants to see an increase in both the supply and the demand for fossil fuels.
While policy impacts may be marginal, they are still important. They can make the difference between a slight increase in demand and a slight decrease in demand. To the extent leaders like Biden succeed, we may indeed see a demand related decline (with a lot of help from market driven development of renewables).
Don't mourn, organize.
-Joe Hill
-Joe Hill
