Extreme weather news and discussion

[weatheriscool]

Storms, extreme winds from Colorado to Michigan leave more than 450,000 without power

By Bryan Pietsch and Jason Samenow
Today at 3:41 a.m. EST

A powerful storm system swept through the central United States on Wednesday with high winds that kicked up dust storms, fueled wildfires and knocked down power lines, leaving more than 450,000 customers without power.

More than 36 million people from New Mexico to Michigan were under high-wind warnings, as gusts of up to 100 mph sent roofs flying and toppled tractor-trailers on highways from Colorado to Iowa.

The National Weather Service reported a “confirmed tornado” near Rochester in southeastern Minnesota, the state’s first on record in December. Several tornadoes reported in western and central Iowa were also a December first for those parts of the state. And Wednesday saw the most reports of winds of 75 mph or higher in a single day since 2004, according to the Weather Service.

The storms came just days after devastating tornadoes in nine states over the weekend, and while there were scattered reports of damaged homes and structures, the latest severe weather did not appear to have caused deaths as of early Thursday.

More than 110,000 customers were without power in Iowa late Wednesday evening, according to PowerOutage.us, which tracks outages. Nearly 100,000 were without power in Wisconsin, almost 75,000 in Kansas and thousands in Illinois, Colorado, Nebraska, Minnesota and Michigan. MidAmerican Energy, which services parts of Iowa, said it could be as many as three days before power is restored “because of the extensive damage.”

A lack of electricity during winter in those states normally risks leaving people without heat in freezing conditions, but cities across the Midwest reported record-breaking highs Wednesday. Parts of Iowa reached temperatures as high as 74, with the Chicago region nearing 70 the week before Christmas.

{snip}

By Bryan Pietsch
Bryan Pietsch is a reporter covering breaking news for The Washington Post from its hub in Seoul. He previously covered breaking news for the New York Times in Colorado. Twitter https://twitter.com/bybryanpietsch

By Jason Samenow
Jason Samenow is The Washington Post’s weather editor and Capital Weather Gang's chief meteorologist. He earned a master's degree in atmospheric science and spent 10 years as a climate change science analyst for the U.S. government. He holds the Digital Seal of Approval from the National Weather Association. Twitter https://twitter.com/capitalweather

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... o-derecho/

[caltrek]

‘Keep Driving’: Amazon Dispatcher Texts Show Chaos Amid Twisters
by Spencer Soper, Michael Tobin, and Michael Smith
December 16, 2021

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... y-training

Introduction:

(Bloomberg) The messages between an Amazon.com Inc. delivery driver and her boss began about 80 minutes before a tornado struck one of the company’s warehouses in Edwardsville, Illinois, on Dec. 10, killing six workers. The dramatic exchange cast in sharp relief the chaos that can ensue when disaster hits and disagreements erupt about when it’s time to heed warnings and cease working.

“Radio’s been going off,” the driver wrote in a text obtained by Bloomberg News.

“Keep delivering,” came the response from her supervisor. “We can’t just call people back for a warning unless Amazon tells us to.”

The driver suggested she return to base. But her boss warned that doing so could get her fired for failing to complete her deliveries. She fretted that her van would wind up becoming her casket.

Days after the tornado toppled the warehouse’s 11-inch thick concrete walls, workers are questioning Amazon’s commitment to their safety. Bloomberg reviewed text messages from contract drivers and interviewed current and former workers who said they received instructions on what do in fires or tornadoes, but never did the kind of drills that could help avoid confusion in an emergency. Training for new hires entails merely pointing out emergency exits and assembly points, they said.

[caltrek]

The point was made earlier regarding being skeptical about linking tornado activity to global warming. As the article below points out, I suppose we do need to be careful in jumping to conclusions in that regard. Insisting on a link without clear evidence can result in skeptics fueling their own denialist claims about the general topic of global warming.

Why Tornadoes are the Hardest Disasters to Link to Climate Change
by Shannon Osaka
December 14, 2021

https://grist.org/climate/why-tornadoes ... te-change/

(Grist) After tornadoes barreled through six U.S. states late last week, killing at least 88 people and flattening warehouses, nursing homes, and factories, many were quick to blame the warming climate for at least some of the damages.

Over the weekend, many in the news media speculated that global warming may have played a role and pressed policymakers for answers. Deanne Criswell, the administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, called the devastating tornadoes “our new normal.” President Joe Biden, responding to a question from reporters at a press conference on Saturday, said that “everything is more intense when the climate is warming — everything” but emphasized on Monday that “we can’t say with absolute certainty” that climate change was to blame.

The questions are hardly a surprise: After all, it’s become increasingly common — and scientifically supported — to blame floods, heat waves, and even intense hurricanes on the increasing temperatures from fossil fuel use. Friday’s record-breaking heat caused many to speculate that climate change might have played a role in the disaster; there’s also evidence that tornadoes are shifting eastward, perhaps because of changing temperatures.

But tornadoes, scientists say, are extremely difficult to link to climate change. According to a 2016 report from the National Academies of Sciences, tornadoes are the most challenging weather event to attribute to global warming — after heat waves, wildfires, extra-tropical cyclones, and even heavy snowfall. “They are the single extreme that we have the least confidence around,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and the director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute.

That’s for several different reasons. First, most studies linking climate change to weather events (a field known as “extreme event attribution”) model the world’s climate in two different ways: with human-caused warming and without. But those climate models don’t have a fine-enough resolution to simulate tornadoes, making it hard for scientists to see how twisters might change in the coming years.

Edit: caltrek's comment: I do note that a Mother Jones article that I cited earlier did indicate that tornado "frequency is increasing in the Mississippi Valley, and research indicates that may be due to climate change." It did not go into further detail regarding that research, but did cite an article in Nature regarding "trends in spatial tornado frequency." In that article in Nature a further reference is made to such studies:

Global and regional climate model studies indicate a general increase in severe weather frequency (especially in boreal spring) and variability by the end of the 21st century in portions of the Midwest and Southeast, suggesting that the trends herein may indeed be due to anthropogenic forcing given the accumulating literature examining tornado/severe weather frequency and variability. This eastward shift is also consistent with recent work suggesting an eastward shift in the “effective 100th meridian” as the century progresses. It is difficult to isolate these natural vs. anthropogenic factors, but perhaps future attribution studies will be able to describe such causal mechanisms.

[weatheriscool]

Drought-denting rains, feet of mountain snow to plaster West Coast

Up to 10 feet of snow is expected in the Sierra Nevada, crucial for water resources in the drought-riddled region

By Matthew Cappucci
Today at 1:06 p.m. EST

California and the West Coast remain entrenched in a crippling drought that’s left some reservoirs dry and vegetation desiccated, but the atmosphere will deliver another welcome dose of water this week. A soaking slug of heavy rain and feet of mountain snow will plaster the western United States, with up to 10 feet of accumulation and blizzard conditions in the mountains amid a replenishing of the Sierra Nevada’s snowpack. The storm could bring issues for holiday travelers, however.

Winter storm watches span the length of the Sierra Nevada, where hurricane-force winds will also combine with the snow to bring near-zero visibilities. In the Cascades, winter storm warnings have been issued. Freezing fog was already affecting parts of Northern California and the Great Basin of Nevada early Monday, an undesirable prelude to an extended period of inclement weather.

Surf’s up on the ice-cold waters of Lake Erie
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... ke-winter/

[caltrek]

Typhoon Rai: Death Toll in the Philippines Climbs to at Least 208
Updated December 20, 2021

https://www.hindustantimes.com/photos/n ... 16404.html

(Hindustan Times) Rai, the 15th typhoon to hit the Philippines this year, engulfed villages in floods, trapped residents on roofs, toppled trees and knocked out power in southern and central island provinces, where more than 300,000 villagers had fled to safety before the onslaught, officials said.

[caltrek]

2021’s Climate Disasters Revealed an East-West Weather Divide, with One Side of the Country Too Wet, the Other Dangerously Dry
by Shuang-Ye Wu

https://theconversation.com/2021s-clima ... dry-173402

(The Conversation) Alongside a lingering global pandemic, the year 2021 was filled with climate disasters, some so intense they surprised even the scientists who study them.

Extreme rainstorms turned to raging flash floods that swept through mountain towns in Europe, killing over 200 people. Across Asia, excessive rainfall inundated wide areas and flooded subway stations in China. Heat waves shattered records in the Pacific Northwest, Europe and the Arctic. Wildfires swept through communities in California, Canada, Greece and Australia. And those were only a few of the extremes.

In the U.S. alone, damage from the biggest climate and weather disasters is expected to total well over US$100 billion in 2021.

Many of these extreme weather events have been linked to human-caused climate change, and they offer a glimpse of what to expect in a rapidly warming world.

In the U.S., something in particular stood out: a sharp national precipitation divide, with one side of the country too wet, the other too dry.

The article goes on to discuss possible connections of all of this to global warming.

[weatheriscool]

Deadly flooding hits Brazil, displaces thousands
Source: CNN

Heavy flooding has left at least 18 people dead and more than 280 injured in the northeast region of Brazil, officials say. The floods have affected nearly 40 cities throughout the state of Bahia, Gov. Rui Costa told reporters in the city of Ilheus, one of the worst-hit.

"This is a massive tragedy. I can't remember seeing anything like this in Bahia's recent history, given the amount of cities and houses involved. It's truly terrifying, there are so many houses and streets that are completely under water," Costa said.

"Widespread rainfall for the next 48 hours is improving slightly, with much of the state seeing up to 50mm, but there are local and isolated areas where up to 100 mm is possible." Most of the major cities that have been hit by flooding are in their rainy season, so downpours are not unusual, Shackelford said.

"For Itambé, December is their wettest month, which they get about 120 mm of rainfall for the month of December. So they are forecast to get about two-thirds of a month of rainfall throughout this event," he said.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/26/americas ... index.html

[Xyls]

Naders'

[caltrek]

Study Concludes That Ocean Heating This Century Could Create Hurricane Conditions Unseen in 3 Million Years
Brett Wilkins
December 30, 2021

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/ ... ears-study

Introduction

(Common Dreams) Global heating caused by human activity could warm oceans enough to fuel hurricanes and tropical storms that strike cities as far north as Boston, a new study published Wednesday projects.

"This represents an important, under-estimated risk of climate change," Joshua Studholme of Yale University, the study's lead author, said in a statement. "This research predicts that the 21st century's tropical cyclones will likely occur over a wider range of latitudes than has been the case on Earth for the last 3 million years."

That means that storms like Tropical Storm Henri, which battered New England in August, and Subtropical Storm Alpha, which made landfall in Portugal a month later, could be indicators of a new normal.

[caltrek]

Red Alert in Four Tamil Nadu Districts After Heavy Rain, Chennai Inundated
by Meenakshi Ray
December 31, 2021

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 42905.html

Introduction:

(Hindustan Times) India News - Isolated heavy to very rainfall activity is likely to continue over north coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas of south coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next three days and decrease thereafter.

A red alert has been issued in four districts of Tamil Nadu, including Chennai, Kanchipuram, Thiruvallur and Chinglepet, as heavy rainfall inundated roads and subways in the capital city and its suburbs and three people were killed on Thursday.

Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin visited the flood control room of Greater Chennai Corporation on Thursday night to review the rain, relief, and rescue works in various parts of the city.

State revenue and disaster management minister KKSSR Ramachandran said three people, including two women and a boy, died of electrocution in Chennai after the intense spell of rain, which may be one of the heaviest witnessed in recent years