Extreme weather news and discussion

[Xyls]

Iowa/Minnesota may have an interesting weather system on Wed. Unlikely to be as severe as this one. But will have to see as we get a few days closer... but wouldn't rule out tornadoes here either...



Reed Timmer a major tornado chaser and PhD in Meteorology thinks 2022 is going to be an aggressive tornado year due to a cold PDO over the Pacific...

[Xyls]

SPC has been gradually upgrading their storm risk rating over the last 24 hours.Started with thunderstorms, then marginal risk of tornadoes, and now slight... Models have been getting more aggressive so I think there could be a handful of tornadoes here on Wed as well. I doubt this will be as aggressive as the outbreak we had last weekend but probably still could be a scary evening for people living in Central and Northern Iowa.

[caltrek]

Although more than adequately reported by earlier posts, I just thought that would provide a link to the Mother Jones coverage regarding the recent tornado cluster:

https://www.motherjones.com/mojo-wire/2 ... is-latest/

From the conclusion of that article:

While there were several tornadoes in the cluster, the National Weather Service is investigating whether a single twister—which is being called the “quad-state tornado”—traveled more than 230 miles as part of the storm, through Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky. If confirmed, it would set a record for the longest continuous tornado in US history, according to NBC News.*

Tornado frequency is increasing in the Mississippi Valley, and research indicates that may be due to climate change, as “Tornado Alley”—the belt across the central US belt where these storms have traditionally been most common—shifts eastward. The storm formed as a cold front slammed into unusually warm weather in the region, a meteorologist explained to the New York Times. While tornadoes in December are not unheard of, a storm system this powerful normally occurs in April or May. “These are the ingredients for big storms in the spring, but not in mid-December,” Dan Pydynowski, a senior meteorologist for Accuweather, told the Times.

Around 250,000 homes in the region were without power as of Saturday morning.

*https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/qu ... h-rcna8465

Also, by way of asking a small favor, please don't use specialized acronyms without indicating what they stand for, such as EFE (Enhanced Fujita Scale).
Of course, I am not a moderator, so consider this a request from another reader. "Go to hell is an acceptable response."

[caltrek]

Another news item from a stronghold for the "right-to-life" movement. /irony

According to Employees, Factory Workers Threatened With Firing If They Left Before Tornado
by Deon J. Hampton
December 13, 2021

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ke ... y-rcna8581

Introduction:

(NBC) MAYFIELD, Ky. — As a catastrophic tornado approached this city Friday, employees of a candle factory — which would later be destroyed — heard the warning sirens and wanted to leave the building. But at least five workers said supervisors warned employees that they would be fired if they left their shifts early.

For hours, as word of the coming storm spread, as many as 15 workers beseeched managers to let them take shelter at their own homes, only to have their requests rebuffed, the workers said.

Fearing for their safety, some left during their shifts regardless of the repercussions.

At least eight people died in the Mayfield Consumer Products factory, which makes scented candles. The facility was leveled, and all that is left is rubble. Photos and videos of its widespread mangled remains have become symbols of the enormous destructive power of Friday’s tornado system.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said Monday that 74 people were confirmed dead in the state.

[irony] caltrek's comment: But hey, now there will be more children for Justice Amy and her friends to adopt.[/irony]

[Xyls]

Although more than adequately reported by earlier posts, I just thought that would provide a link to the Mother Jones coverage regarding the recent tornado cluster:

https://www.motherjones.com/mojo-wire/2 ... is-latest/

From the conclusion of that article:

While there were several tornadoes in the cluster, the National Weather Service is investigating whether a single twister—which is being called the “quad-state tornado”—traveled more than 230 miles as part of the storm, through Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky. If confirmed, it would set a record for the longest continuous tornado in US history, according to NBC News.*

Tornado frequency is increasing in the Mississippi Valley, and research indicates that may be due to climate change, as “Tornado Alley”—the belt across the central US belt where these storms have traditionally been most common—shifts eastward. The storm formed as a cold front slammed into unusually warm weather in the region, a meteorologist explained to the New York Times. While tornadoes in December are not unheard of, a storm system this powerful normally occurs in April or May. “These are the ingredients for big storms in the spring, but not in mid-December,” Dan Pydynowski, a senior meteorologist for Accuweather, told the Times.

Around 250,000 homes in the region were without power as of Saturday morning.

*https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/qu ... h-rcna8465

Also, by way of asking a small favor, please don't use specialized acronyms without indicating what they stand for, such as EFE (Enhanced Fujita Scale).
Of course, I am not a moderator, so consider this a request from another reader. "Go to hell is an acceptable response."

I am very skeptical to listen to "experts" linking individual tornadoes or tornado events to climate change. Fixing climate change does not mean that tornadoes cannot happen in December and this outbreak was not particularly outside where you would expect tornadoes to occur in December based on climatology. If there are tornadoes in Iowa/Minnesota tomorrow which is looking like a real possibility that would be more of an eyebrow raiser. But tornadoes have occurred in Wisconsin before in December.

[Xyls]

SPC really upping their forecast for this afternoon. This is looking like it could be a more serious tornado outbreak than thought with potentially long track tornadoes in Iowa and Minnesota...



This is very concerning at this time of year here.

We will have to see if this starts a trend in this area going forward as unlike the outbreak last weekend this one is in an anomalous area for the climatology...

[Xyls]

Things are seriously beginning to deteriorate in Eastern Nebraska, Western, Central and Northern Iowa as well as extreme southern Minnesota.

Multiple long track EF3+ tornadoes are quite possible at this time. Maybe 2 or 3 of these stronger long-track ones, as well as more weak tornadoes. That isn't even including what will likely be a straight line wind event with winds up to 100mph or a Category 2 hurricane... These are even faster moving storms than what hit Kentucky last week. The Quad-State tornado for example moved at about 60mph which was fast some of the cells tonight could be moving up to 70-90mph. Very, very dangerous setup.

Cities of Omaha, NE, Des Moines, IA, Ames, IA, Rochester, Minnesota, La Crosse, Wisconsin all in the firing line tonight... This is going to be ongoing for up to 7 hours... starting within the next 2...

[Xyls]

The shear size of wind warnings over the US today (not tornado but straight line)



Storms starting to fire over Western Nebraska these will develop into the super cells we are expecting... Omaha the largest city in this risk area needs to get ready to take shelter...

[SerethiaFalcon]

I actually moved to Rochester, MN this past summer. The Mayo Clinic is in this city (at least, the central hub of it). My significant other is getting treatment for neurological issues here because where we lived in Indiana, they not only couldn't help us, some of the doctors treated us like s*** (because we are an LGBT+ couple). We are kind of living in poverty at the moment, for the most part, so I'm not sure how our finances will look in a few months, but the city has good benefits (compared to Indiana), so that's been helpful. I've been surviving off my wise financial decisions and investments from the time I was working (for the most part), and have been applying to jobs here and there at a slower pace than I would like. Anyway, all that to say, I love researching whatever history of the city I'm in, and Rochester, MN has had a tornado here before that flattened it a long time ago. They proceeded to build back the city with a bit stronger buildings because of that experience. The building I reside in currently was created in the...1960s to 1970s I think, so the walls are thick and strong. I think it is built to sustain high winds, though I could be wrong. However, I'm not sure what the building practices have been in the area at large. They have also gotten their homeless population down to under 200 here, I think, mainly by rehousing them and things like that. This is in a city of about 150,000 give or take. The only reason it is this big at all is because of the Mayo Clinic. Politically, it leans slightly left but is largely centrist. The city I came from in Indiana was about 250,000 and leaned slightly right and was largely centrist as well (though I'd say in recent years with President Trump, it became even more right-wing). If you were lesbian or gay in the Indiana city I was in, you would face some trouble, but there was still some tolerance. On the other hand, if you were Trans, you could expect to face all manner of abuse without any legal consequences. You basically have to know the right people to survive there or have any legal assistance at all, I would say. What's interesting is it is kind of reversed for racially diverse groups. I would say they are treated worse here, not because the people are necessarily more racist, but because of the ignorance of the issues facing different groups, the systemic issues, and having a different brand of racism. In Indiana, if someone was racist, they were very vocal about it, with some others being more sly, but here, it is all sly and not upfront (about anything really). I believe it is a combination of their Scandinavian and German heritage making the slyness trait go through the roof. Anyway, in Indiana, benefits were a joke if you didn't have a job that provided you with them. In conclusion, tornadoes have happened in Rochester, Mn on a large scale before, so we will see how it holds out.

My impressions of Minnesota weather have definitely changed though. It appears to me that there has been a huge temperature shift from how winters used to be, though the weather has always been kind of weird here, apparently. This year, there was a heatwave that was unusual for this area, then we got the smoke coming down from the Canadian wildfires, Lake Superior had algae growing in it that is usually unheard of, and the heat stuck around a lot longer than normal, for the most part. Winter has been slightly warmer than normal, though today there is a thirty-degree spike out of the norm. The species of trees and animals have also been shifting out of the state, and other species have been moving in. But, it varies based on the year, among other factors. It's definitely complex.

I wanted to add one more thing. Originally, my perspective of Minnesota was like The Long Dark, but a little bit milder than that (since The Long Dark is based in Canada), but, while Minnesotans have enough proximity to Canadians to share some traits with them, my perspective of the weather was definitely off. It is a lot wilder than even the weather in The Long Dark was, and it is quite a bit warmer than my perspective (even though I accounted for being in the southern half of the state).

[Xyls]

So this storm line hasn't even entered the main tornado zone warning yet... and we already have 3 tornado warnings with 1 confirmed on the ground...

Very worried for this thing as it approaches Omaha...