Extreme weather news and discussion

weatheriscool
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La Nina climate cycle could last into 2023: UN
https://phys.org/news/2022-06-la-nina-climate.html
La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, occurring every two to seven years.

The weather phenomenon La Nina, which has affected global temperatures and worsened drought and flooding, will likely continue for months, and possibly even into 2023, the UN warned Friday.

La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, occurring every two to seven years.

The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there was a 70 percent chance that the protracted La Nina event—which has held the globe in its clutches almost uninterrupted since September 2020—will continue until at least August.

"Some long-lead predictions even suggest that it might persist into 2023," it said in a statement.

If it does, this would be only the third so-called triple-dip La Nina—meaning the phenomenon is present during three consecutive northern hemisphere winters—on record since 1950, WMO said.

The effect has widespread impacts on weather around the world—typically the opposite impacts to the El Nino phenomenon, which has a warming influence on global temperatures.
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Over a third of US population urged to stay indoors amid record-breaking heat

Wed 15 Jun 2022 17.34 BST

More than 100 million Americans have been advised to stay indoors amid record-breaking heat, with experts warning that such temperatures could become the norm amid the climate crisis.

By Wednesday as many as 107.5 million people, more than a third of the US population, had been warned to stay inside, as a potentially lethal combination of extreme heat and humidity settled over much of the country.

The heatwave stretched from parts of the Gulf coast in the south to the Great Lakes in the midwest, the National Weather Service (NWS) Prediction Center said.

More than 125 million people were also under heat alerts, including heat advisories and excessive heat warnings, CNN reported.

“This is a day where not only folks who are susceptible to heat-related illnesses, but really just about anybody that’s going to be outside for an extended period of time is at risk for heat-related illnesses,” Matt Beitscher, a NWS meteorologist based in St Louis, told CNN.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... mperatures
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caltrek
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Europe Wilts Under Early Heat Wave from Mediterranean to North Sea
June 17, 2022

Introduction:
BERLIN (AP via Courthouse News) — A blanket of hot air stretching from the Mediterranean to the North Sea is bringing much of Western Europe its first heat wave of the summer, with temperatures Friday exceeding 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) from London to Paris.

Meteorologists say the unusually early heat wave is a sign of what’s to come as global warming continues, moving up in the calendar the temperatures that Europe would previously have seen only in July and August.

“In some parts of Spain and France, temperatures are more than 10 degrees higher — that’s huge — than the average for this time of year,” Clare Nullis, a spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, said.

In France, some 18 million people woke to heat wave alerts affecting about a third of the country Friday. Forest fire warnings were issued from the Pyrenees in the south to the Paris region.

Tourists dunked their feet in fountains near the Eiffel Tower or sought relief in the Mediterranean.
Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/europe- ... orth-sea/
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caltrek
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Millions Left Homeless by Floods in India and Bangladesh
June 17, 2022

Introduction:
(The National) Dozens of people have died in floods across north-eastern India and Bangladesh that have submerged millions of homes.

In India’s Assam, at least nine people died in the floods and the homes of about two million others were submerged, the state disaster management agency said.

Lightning strikes had killed at least 21 people in Bangladesh since Friday afternoon, police officials said.

Among them were three children aged between 12 and 14, who were struck by lightning in the rural town of Nandail, local police chief Mizanur Rahman told AFP.

He said four other people were killed when landslides hit their hillside homes in the port city of Chittagong.
Read more here: https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/ ... ngladesh/
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Blimey...

Glad it missed the UK. :shock:


weatheriscool
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In world's first, Spain's Seville to name and classify heatwaves
Source: Reuters

June 22, 2022
2:42 PM EDT

MADRID, June 22 (Reuters) - Seville has introduced a pioneering system to name and classify frequent heatwaves that affect the city in Spain's arid south, which will tie meteorological forecasts to health impacts, Seville Mayor Antonio Munoz said.

The pilot project comprises three categories and will alert the population up to five days in advance of a heat event, he said in a statement late on Tuesday.

"We are the first city in the world to take a step that will help us plan and take measures when this type of weather event happens," the mayor said.

The heatwaves will be categorized on a three-level scale, and named in reverse alphabetical order. The first five will be called Zoe, Yago, Xenia, Wenceslao and Vega.
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/business/enviro ... 022-06-22/
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The Era of Real-time Climate Change Attribution is Here
by Andrew Freedman
June 24, 2022

Introduction:
(Axios) Climate scientists are now able to tell whether climate change fuels temperature extremes in real-time, and even ahead of time, using forecast models, historical data and peer-reviewed scientific research.

Why it matters: Presented in a compelling visual format accessible to the lay public and TV meteorologists alike, a new product known as the "Climate Shift Index," or CSI, was unveiled this week by Climate Central, a nonprofit research and journalism organization. The product signals a shift in thinking about the ties between daily weather and long-term climate change.

Driving the news: Climate scientists have made great strides during the past decade in teasing out the role human-caused global warming plays in worsening or setting off extreme weather events, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall.

• These studies, known as extreme event attribution, have taken place after a disaster, and involve sifting through complex historical data and computer model simulations.
• Climate Central's real-time effort is currently limited to just one important parameter: temperature, though the intention is to expand it as science permits.
Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/06/24/extre ... real-time

caltrek’s comment: Sad thing is that the denialists will find some excuse for ignoring such data. Something like “it is not 100% reliable (in our opinion) therefore it should be totally ignored” even as their highly unreliable version of events continue to be featured in right-wing media. Main-stream media will either join in ignoring such tools or insist on a “on the one hand and on the other hand” approach. Such an approach will likely do nothing but "balance" scientific data and analysis with emotional and poorly thought-out responses.
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In the Near Future, Unprecedented Drought Conditions are Projected to be More Frequent and Consecutive in Certain Regions
June 28, 2022

Introduction:
(EurekAlert) For a successful climate change strategy, it is crucial to understand how the impacts of global warming may evolve over time. A new study led by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) presents the future periods for which aberrant drought conditions will become more frequent, thereby creating a new normal.

Global warming is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of future drought in several global regions, adversely affecting the water resource, agriculture, and energy sectors. Given that the current water management practices and existing infrastructures in these sectors are based on historical statistics or experiences, under a changing climate, these practices and infrastructures may eventually become insufficient. Therefore, it is critical to better understand when severe drought conditions expressed as “unprecedented” will become frequent.

“Regarding precipitation and temperature, preceding studies report the timing at which the impact of climate change emerges. However, no study had successfully estimated the timing in terms of drought focusing on river discharge at a global scale,” said Tokuta Yokohata, a coauthor and a Chief Senior Researcher of the Earth System Risk Analysis Section at the Earth System Division, NIES. “A temporal evaluation about future drought conditions in comparison to our historical experiences is essential to take appropriate climate change strategies, especially for climate adaptations, in the long term and in time.”

The paper published in Nature Communications estimates the periods when drought conditions will shift to an unprecedented state in a warmer world. The research group evaluated changes in drought day frequency for 59 global subcontinental regions until the end of the 21st century. They estimated the time of first emergence (TFE) of consecutive unprecedented drought, which is the first onset of exceedance beyond the maximum bound of the historical climate variability during the reference period (1865-2005) that occurs consecutively for a certain number of years. For instance, TFE5 indicates that the regional drought frequency remains larger than the maximum value during the reference 141-year period for more than five years. The scientists analyzed their river discharge simulation dataset, which was derived from combinations of five global hydrological models and four climate model projections. The study considered low and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios to evaluate the consequences of society’s decisions on the climate mitigation pathway.
Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/956964
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How Climate Change is Affecting Extreme Weather Events Around the World - New Study
June 28 , 2022

Introduction:
(EurekAlert) Attribution science has led to major advances in linking the impacts of extreme weather and human-induced climate change, but large gaps in the published research still conceal the full extent of climate change damage, warns a new study released today in the first issue of Environmental Research: Climate, a new academic journal published by IOP Publishing.

Researchers from the University of Oxford, Imperial College London and the Victoria University of Wellington reviewed the impacts of five different types of extreme weather events and to what degree these damaging events could be attributed to human induced climate change.

To do this, they combined information from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and results from a fast increasing body of attribution studies - where weather observations and climate models are used to determine the role that climate change played in specific weather events.

They found that for some extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, the link with climate change is clear and unequivocal across the world, and that the extent of the impacts are likely being underestimated by insurers, economists and governments. For others, such as tropical cyclones, the paper shows that important differences exist between regions and the role that climate change plays in each event is more variable than for heatwaves.

“The rise of more extreme and intense weather events such as heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall have dramatically increased in recent years, affecting people all over the globe. Understanding the role that climate change plays in these events can help us better prepare for them. It also allows us to determine the real cost that carbon emissions have in our lives,” says Ben Clarke from the University of Oxford, lead author of the study.
Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/956600
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Japan swelters in hottest temperatures for 150 years as early heatwave hits Northern Hemisphere
Wednesday 29 June 2022

Millions of people are sweltering under Japan's worst heatwave for almost 150 years, in the latest early-season hot weather streak to hit the Northern Hemisphere this month.

Record heat has struck every continent north of the equator in June, raising fears about what July and August - typically the hottest months of the year - have in store for Europe, North America and Asia.

The blistering temperatures are yet another reminder of the human consequences of human-induced climate change, which scientists agree is already increasing the frequency and severity of heatwaves.

They are also starting earlier in the year.

In Japan, fears of power shortages in order to keep air conditioners running are growing, and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called for a ramp-up of nuclear power.

Most of the country's nuclear plants were switched off after the March 2011 tsunami that set off the Fukushima nuclear accident.
https://news.sky.com/story/japan-swelte ... e-12642341
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