https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcFz7k9WIAI ... =4096x4096
This actually looks like an offensive... even if I don't know if it's going to be another Falaise.
Are the Russians going to abandon Balakliya?, are the Ukrainians going to take Kupiansk?, are they going to consolidate and keep nibbling?...
I don't think the war is going to be decided there and some people are already reading too much here: Russia has lost the war, again.
Ukraine War Watch Thread
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
Posted by forum member "Girkin" on SkyscraperCity:
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A little about the problems (the most acute ones) that do not allow me to criticize the fighters and commanders of the DNR/LNR, who (according to some couch strategists) "do not hold their positions steadfastly enough." Which (in the opinion of these bloggers) is the reason for the rapid advance of the enemy in a number of important sectors during his current offensives.
For clarity, I will give a "generalized portrait" of a company of Donetsk / Luhansk "mobiks" [conscripted separatists] operating on the Nth direction of the Nth front.
So:
The company had been conscripted as part of some reserve regiment of the DNR in late February or early March of this year. From its initial rolls, 3-5 people previously saw combat, another 15 served in the army (any army - Soviet, Ukrainian, DNR/LNR.) The company is commanded by a reserve officer who has no fighting experience whatsoever, neither in 2014 nor later. Sometimes (not always) he has a deputy officer - a similar reserve officer with no combat experience. Platoon commanders were appointed out of those who were "at least close to combat" from 2014 to 2022. There weren't enough of them left to command squads.
For six months, the company (initially numbering just over 100 people) greatly "lost weight": from a quarter to a third of the personnel. Approximately half of the losses were in combat: artillery shelling, sniper strikes, being captured by a Ukrainian recon force, etc. The rest dropped out as a result of an exacerbation of old diseases that did not allow their owners to serve and were not identified during conscription due to the complete absence of a medical commission (or its conduct according to the principle: "Do you have a head, two arms and two legs? Are you younger than 70? Fit for service!") Half of the remaining fighters aged 60-70 are fit for limited service due to old age and diseases that have not yet made their owners bedridden. 85% of the personnel of the company were not on home leave for more than six months, and 15% of the lucky ones were on leave for five days (plus two days for travel, which few of them managed to meet due to difficulties with transport.)
The company is armed, for the most part, with AK-74 assault rifles of the 2nd or 3rd wear category, but a certain number of Mosin-Nagant rifles and Degtyarev machine guns (DP-28) are still in service. No mortars, 1-2 grenade launchers (there are a dozen of them for the entire regiment), one DShK heavy machine gun which no one in the company knows how to use, not to mention disassemble / assemble it. No body armor. There are no means of communication. No night vision devices or (especially) thermal imagers. The company commander has a single pair of tourist binoculars. The existence of drones is well known, not because of their presence in the company, but because such enemy aircraft regularly correct artillery fire on the company or drop munitions on it. The only entrenching tools are those found and collected in nearby villages. The company does not have its own transport (and almost none of it in the regiment), but - for the reasons stated below - even its presence in the regiment does not affect the capabilities of the company in any way.) Uniforms and shoes, which were received half a year ago by the method - "what was thrown during the distribution and what I managed to catch" - have worn out in places to tatters, but no one is in a hurry to replace them. With all the rest of the equipment, the picture is the same - its replenishment occurs among soldiers almost exclusively at the expense of those who have departed.
The entire regiment, assembled in early March of this year - received no training AT ALL (so even company commanders often didn't even know how to load a magazine into an assault rifle at the beginning of the campaign.) They were initially sent to various regions to guard rear checkpoints. Then, someone at the top decided that the "mobiks" [separatist conscripts] were too well armed and "settled too well", so they were replaced at the checkpoints by heavily armed RosGuard troops [Russian Kadyrovites], and the regiment was pulled apart on a front 50-70 km wide, with many companies ending up in not only different Russian regiments and brigades, but even different "armies" and "corps."
Our "exemplary" [DNR] company, for example, turned out to be attached to the Nth [Russian] battalion of the Nth separate motorized rifle brigade. There are about 50 people in the battalion (including rear troops), of which half are officers. A third of the rest are KIA/WIA, and two-thirds are deserters (since the battalion also did not change or replenish for half a year.) The battalion "shared" with the company a whole major from the chemical defense unit, as well as a warrant officer, but (what bad luck!) both of them were captured two weeks ago by a Ukrainian recon unit, together with 9 fighters from our company. Why? Because even our "sparse" company turned out to be stretched for one and a half kilometers of the front (sometimes more), its platoons and forward operating bases are at distances between themselves beyond visual range, no one in the company has heard of "secure comms", and the commanders are not able (due to the lack of both experience and authority) to force their exhausted fighters to go beyond the forward trenches.
There is no barbed wire in front of the company's positions. No camouflage nets. No one knows that signal mines exist in nature, since no one has ever seen them. They suspect the enemy has anti-personnel mines since there have already been a couple of explosions in their rear (or those set up by enemy recon units.) There are no anti-tank mines either (neither are there any in the supply battalion.) Illumination missiles? The battalion commander has enough of those to count on the fingers of one hand, but he does not give them to the conscripts. Same with smoke grenades and other engineering munitions.
In the event of an enemy attack, the company is ordered to radio about the attack and "firmly defend, waiting for reinforcements."
At the end of summer, the enemy suddenly opens heavy artillery fire on the trenches of the company. Since all positions had been spotted long ago, the command post of the company is destroyed immediately. Together with the only radio. One platoon of the company, where there was no commander (he fell ill a week ago, having being conscripted despite having diabetes) ran as soon as the shelling stopped. Another platoon, having got out of hiding, found at the edge of the trench a group of heavily armed men in unknown uniforms and with blue ribbons on their sleeves. A couple of soldiers ran and were immediately shot dead. The rest were taken prisoner. The third platoon managed to get together and fired back at the enemy all day, even managing (probably) to inflict some losses on him. But by nightfall, the platoon ran out of ammunition for the rifles and grenades for the grenade launchers. In addition, the village it was defending was shelled by its own artillery (since there is no communication or spotters.) Having lost half of its personnel, the platoon retreated to the rear in the dark, carrying out several wounded. To their credit, no one surrendered voluntarily.
The next day, the [Russian] battalion commander reported to the top that: "the DNR conscripts fled at the first shots, so we could not hold the position." The commander prudently omitted to report that his battalion (starting with the battalion staff officers) hastily retreated long before the aforementioned DNR platoon had used up their ammunition.
And whoever tells me that everything described is "a lie and a provocation" - I will laugh in his face. Even if it is a police investigator.
----------
A little about the problems (the most acute ones) that do not allow me to criticize the fighters and commanders of the DNR/LNR, who (according to some couch strategists) "do not hold their positions steadfastly enough." Which (in the opinion of these bloggers) is the reason for the rapid advance of the enemy in a number of important sectors during his current offensives.
For clarity, I will give a "generalized portrait" of a company of Donetsk / Luhansk "mobiks" [conscripted separatists] operating on the Nth direction of the Nth front.
So:
The company had been conscripted as part of some reserve regiment of the DNR in late February or early March of this year. From its initial rolls, 3-5 people previously saw combat, another 15 served in the army (any army - Soviet, Ukrainian, DNR/LNR.) The company is commanded by a reserve officer who has no fighting experience whatsoever, neither in 2014 nor later. Sometimes (not always) he has a deputy officer - a similar reserve officer with no combat experience. Platoon commanders were appointed out of those who were "at least close to combat" from 2014 to 2022. There weren't enough of them left to command squads.
For six months, the company (initially numbering just over 100 people) greatly "lost weight": from a quarter to a third of the personnel. Approximately half of the losses were in combat: artillery shelling, sniper strikes, being captured by a Ukrainian recon force, etc. The rest dropped out as a result of an exacerbation of old diseases that did not allow their owners to serve and were not identified during conscription due to the complete absence of a medical commission (or its conduct according to the principle: "Do you have a head, two arms and two legs? Are you younger than 70? Fit for service!") Half of the remaining fighters aged 60-70 are fit for limited service due to old age and diseases that have not yet made their owners bedridden. 85% of the personnel of the company were not on home leave for more than six months, and 15% of the lucky ones were on leave for five days (plus two days for travel, which few of them managed to meet due to difficulties with transport.)
The company is armed, for the most part, with AK-74 assault rifles of the 2nd or 3rd wear category, but a certain number of Mosin-Nagant rifles and Degtyarev machine guns (DP-28) are still in service. No mortars, 1-2 grenade launchers (there are a dozen of them for the entire regiment), one DShK heavy machine gun which no one in the company knows how to use, not to mention disassemble / assemble it. No body armor. There are no means of communication. No night vision devices or (especially) thermal imagers. The company commander has a single pair of tourist binoculars. The existence of drones is well known, not because of their presence in the company, but because such enemy aircraft regularly correct artillery fire on the company or drop munitions on it. The only entrenching tools are those found and collected in nearby villages. The company does not have its own transport (and almost none of it in the regiment), but - for the reasons stated below - even its presence in the regiment does not affect the capabilities of the company in any way.) Uniforms and shoes, which were received half a year ago by the method - "what was thrown during the distribution and what I managed to catch" - have worn out in places to tatters, but no one is in a hurry to replace them. With all the rest of the equipment, the picture is the same - its replenishment occurs among soldiers almost exclusively at the expense of those who have departed.
The entire regiment, assembled in early March of this year - received no training AT ALL (so even company commanders often didn't even know how to load a magazine into an assault rifle at the beginning of the campaign.) They were initially sent to various regions to guard rear checkpoints. Then, someone at the top decided that the "mobiks" [separatist conscripts] were too well armed and "settled too well", so they were replaced at the checkpoints by heavily armed RosGuard troops [Russian Kadyrovites], and the regiment was pulled apart on a front 50-70 km wide, with many companies ending up in not only different Russian regiments and brigades, but even different "armies" and "corps."
Our "exemplary" [DNR] company, for example, turned out to be attached to the Nth [Russian] battalion of the Nth separate motorized rifle brigade. There are about 50 people in the battalion (including rear troops), of which half are officers. A third of the rest are KIA/WIA, and two-thirds are deserters (since the battalion also did not change or replenish for half a year.) The battalion "shared" with the company a whole major from the chemical defense unit, as well as a warrant officer, but (what bad luck!) both of them were captured two weeks ago by a Ukrainian recon unit, together with 9 fighters from our company. Why? Because even our "sparse" company turned out to be stretched for one and a half kilometers of the front (sometimes more), its platoons and forward operating bases are at distances between themselves beyond visual range, no one in the company has heard of "secure comms", and the commanders are not able (due to the lack of both experience and authority) to force their exhausted fighters to go beyond the forward trenches.
There is no barbed wire in front of the company's positions. No camouflage nets. No one knows that signal mines exist in nature, since no one has ever seen them. They suspect the enemy has anti-personnel mines since there have already been a couple of explosions in their rear (or those set up by enemy recon units.) There are no anti-tank mines either (neither are there any in the supply battalion.) Illumination missiles? The battalion commander has enough of those to count on the fingers of one hand, but he does not give them to the conscripts. Same with smoke grenades and other engineering munitions.
In the event of an enemy attack, the company is ordered to radio about the attack and "firmly defend, waiting for reinforcements."
At the end of summer, the enemy suddenly opens heavy artillery fire on the trenches of the company. Since all positions had been spotted long ago, the command post of the company is destroyed immediately. Together with the only radio. One platoon of the company, where there was no commander (he fell ill a week ago, having being conscripted despite having diabetes) ran as soon as the shelling stopped. Another platoon, having got out of hiding, found at the edge of the trench a group of heavily armed men in unknown uniforms and with blue ribbons on their sleeves. A couple of soldiers ran and were immediately shot dead. The rest were taken prisoner. The third platoon managed to get together and fired back at the enemy all day, even managing (probably) to inflict some losses on him. But by nightfall, the platoon ran out of ammunition for the rifles and grenades for the grenade launchers. In addition, the village it was defending was shelled by its own artillery (since there is no communication or spotters.) Having lost half of its personnel, the platoon retreated to the rear in the dark, carrying out several wounded. To their credit, no one surrendered voluntarily.
The next day, the [Russian] battalion commander reported to the top that: "the DNR conscripts fled at the first shots, so we could not hold the position." The commander prudently omitted to report that his battalion (starting with the battalion staff officers) hastily retreated long before the aforementioned DNR platoon had used up their ammunition.
And whoever tells me that everything described is "a lie and a provocation" - I will laugh in his face. Even if it is a police investigator.
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
Love to see it
Good animated map of the apparent collapse of the Russian front in Kharkiv. The Ukrainians are going to surround Izyum and could even start retaking parts of Luhansk within days.
Looks like the Kherson offensive may have been a feign and the Russians redirected so many units that the northern part of Donbass is exposed. Also Russia will have serious problems resupplying their troops if this area falls.
Good animated map of the apparent collapse of the Russian front in Kharkiv. The Ukrainians are going to surround Izyum and could even start retaking parts of Luhansk within days.
Looks like the Kherson offensive may have been a feign and the Russians redirected so many units that the northern part of Donbass is exposed. Also Russia will have serious problems resupplying their troops if this area falls.
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weatheriscool
- Posts: 14073
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
General Staff: Russia has lost 51,900 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24.
Source: Kyiv Independent
Source: Kyiv Independent
Read more: https://kyivindependent.com/uncategoriz ... nce-feb-24General Staff: Russia has lost 51,900 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24. Ukraine’s General Staff reported on Sept. 9 that Russia had also lost 2,122 tanks, 4,575 armored fighting vehicles, 3,399 vehicles and fuel tanks, 1,237 artillery systems, 306 multiple launch rocket systems, 159 air defense systems, 239 airplanes, 211 helicopters, 884 drones, and 15 boats.
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weatheriscool
- Posts: 14073
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2021 6:16 pm
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
'Substantial victory' for Kyiv as Russian front crumbles near Kharkiv
Source: Reuters
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bl ... 022-09-08/
Source: Reuters
/snip
KYIV, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Ukrainian forces were charging through an expanding area of previously Russian-held territory in the east on Friday after bursting through the frontline in a surprise breakthrough that could mark a major turning point in the war.
After keeping silent for a day, Moscow effectively acknowledged that a section of its frontline had crumbled southeast of Ukraine's second largest city Kharkiv.
"The very fact of a breach of our defences is already a substantial victory for the Ukrainian armed forces," the head of the Moscow-installed administration for occupied areas in Kharkiv province, Vitaly Ganchev, said on Russian state TV.
Ganchev later said his administration was trying to evacuate civilians from cities including Izium, Russia's main stronghold and logistics base in the province near the front in the east.
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bl ... 022-09-08/
Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread
It's telling that when I look up Russian propaganda, much of it seemed to move from denial to outright silence.
I've been wondering about that lately. When Russia has been defeated, how will the media deal with it? Admitting it is out of the question, but at a certain point, so is lying about it.
My guess is something similar to the current silence, not talking about it at all, and just pretend it never happened. If they fine or jail people for even calling it a "war", it wouldn't even surprise me if the war becomes an illegal topic to even talk about post-defeat.
[edit] Haven't considered the possibility of Russia claiming victory once they have "succeeded in the main goal of evacuating all Russian speaking people from the evil Ukraine".
I've been wondering about that lately. When Russia has been defeated, how will the media deal with it? Admitting it is out of the question, but at a certain point, so is lying about it.
My guess is something similar to the current silence, not talking about it at all, and just pretend it never happened. If they fine or jail people for even calling it a "war", it wouldn't even surprise me if the war becomes an illegal topic to even talk about post-defeat.
[edit] Haven't considered the possibility of Russia claiming victory once they have "succeeded in the main goal of evacuating all Russian speaking people from the evil Ukraine".
I still think the microwave is the most sci fi invention so far.
