Ukraine War Watch Thread

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erowind
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by erowind »

wjfox wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:46 am
erowind wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:21 am Can we all at least agree that Ukraine isn't worth nuclear war? That it would be better to reach a diplomatic solution and deescalate than continue to push a government that clearly doesn't have regard for the lives of its own people or that of others even farther? On those grounds alone shouldn't we oppose greater escalation on the behalf of our countries? The Biden Administration has made it clear at this point that the American strategy is to pressure for Russian regime change.

Say that all the propaganda and points made by people here are correct. Putin isn't willing to backdown and will escalate because he's a sociopath and the Russian government will back him in this decision. Shouldn't we be trying to avoid pushing him that far?
What makes you think:

(a) Putin is even interested in diplomacy
(b) Putin will be satisfied with a small sliver of Ukraine, and will stop at that, given everything that's happened since 2014 (and further back)

?
Assuming both of those points are right the conclusion is still wrong.

Would you rather everyone die and or be maimed except people outside of the fallout windpaths like in New Zealand and Fiji or Ukraine and maybe Moldova fall into the Russian sphere in a worst case scenario?

How does NATO responding militarily actually solve the problem. Nowhere has anyone here rooting for NATO actually explained how this strategy will work if Russia went nuclear. If Russia used nuclear weapons how would the plan work? How would more war make it better? What is the point of any of this if there isn't any infrastructure left to even run a civilization with?

I don't want involved in imperial wars and sincerely hate this rhetoric that is leading to the conclusion that this war is worth atomizing the planet for. You should all be ashamed, to be willing to throw away your own lives and the lives of everyone you've ever cared about over this.

Point (a) is blatantly false. Russia isn't Putin. That's a gross failure to understand the political science and governance of the Russian state and any political scientist who isn't a pundit would quickly disperse with it. I'm sure if NATO agreed to back away from the Russian border, stop installing new missle strike systems on the border, and offered a mutual nuclear disarmament agreement alongside normalized trade relations Russia would be more than willing to work with us. Russia in turn would also likely be willing to mutually disarm on the border. Instead NATO has crept towards the Russian border for the past 30 years with the policy conclusion that it plans to completely overthrow the country which has now been blatantly admitted in the form of "regime" change.

Russian policy has actually be consistent with this. The country tried to join NATO before and was denied, (this was during the Putin Administration) probably because NATO isn't a defensive organization. But y'know, Libya was planning to invade Italy so what do I know¿

(b) Russia might actually be fine with a few territories alongside a comprehensive peace agreement and a politically neutral Ukraine. And even if it weren't I don't care. Ukraine and Moldova aren't worth atomizing the planet for.
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

No. This is appeasement...
- No. This is appeasement
Yes, this is too simplistic. The Peace of Compiègne, Danzing, all the existing Treaties and interests, the declaration of war by the British Empire on the USSR after it invaded Poland...

- does not work
You are probably right, I don't think anybody is going to start WW3 the next time US is invading anything.

- f*ck around
But let US do what it wants.

- Putin is
Bragadoccio? Putin has a country and nukes. I am quite happy Biden already said that he is not going to start WW3 for Ukraine.
I am not quite sure if it's madness or stupidity not to be scared about WW3.

Sorry, I mean your bragadoccio, Putin is doing politics, coercive diplomacy.
weatheriscool
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Blinken, Lavrov come face-to-face at U.N. Security Council showdown
Source: Politico
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, face-to-face with Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov on Thursday at the United Nations, railed against Russia over its alleged war crimes and atrocities committed in Ukraine.

“That President [Vladimir] Putin picked this week as most of the world gathers at the United Nations to add fuel to the fire that he started shows his utter contempt for the U.N. charter, for the General Assembly and for this council,” Blinken said in remarks at a U.N. Security Council meeting. “The international order that we gathered here to uphold is being shredded before our eyes.”

The meeting comes just one day after Putin mobilized 300,000 reservists to aid in Russia’s war against Ukraine and threatened to use nuclear weapons. Biden blasted Putin for the escalation, saying in a speech to the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday that Russia’s attempts to “erase” Ukraine from the map “should make your blood run cold.”

The 15-member security council gathered on Thursday to discuss Russia’s war on Ukraine, alleged war crimes and “sham” referendums to be held in Ukrainian territories seized by Russia — marking one of the highest-profile confrontations between Russian officials and their critics since the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Lavrov’s attendance came as a surprise to some officials, as he had in July walked out of a meeting of the Group of 20 foreign ministers in Indonesia following criticism over Russia’s war.

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/2 ... l-00058295
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

erowind wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:46 pm
wjfox wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:46 am
erowind wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:21 am ...
... because NATO isn't a defensive organization. But y'know, Libya was planning to invade Italy so what do I know¿
weatheriscool wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:42 pm Blinken, Lavrov come face-to-face at U.N. Security Council showdown
Source: Politico
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, face-to-face with Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov on Thursday at the United Nations, railed against Russia over its alleged war crimes and atrocities committed in Ukraine.

“That President [Vladimir] Putin picked this week as most of the world gathers at the United Nations to add fuel to the fire that he started shows his utter contempt for the U.N. charter, for the General Assembly and for this council,” Blinken said in remarks at a U.N. Security Council meeting. “The international order that we gathered here to uphold is being shredded before our eyes.”

The meeting comes just one day after Putin mobilized 300,000 reservists to aid in Russia’s war against Ukraine and threatened to use nuclear weapons. Biden blasted Putin for the escalation, saying in a speech to the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday that Russia’s attempts to “erase” Ukraine from the map “should make your blood run cold.”

The 15-member security council gathered on Thursday to discuss Russia’s war on Ukraine, alleged war crimes and “sham” referendums to be held in Ukrainian territories seized by Russia — marking one of the highest-profile confrontations between Russian officials and their critics since the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Lavrov’s attendance came as a surprise to some officials, as he had in July walked out of a meeting of the Group of 20 foreign ministers in Indonesia following criticism over Russia’s war.
Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/2 ... l-00058295


I had to do a little research regarding NATO and Libya. Whether actions taken by NATO in regards to Libya were "defensive" or not is debatable. Still, Weatheriscool's post helps to highlight a major difference between the present situation and NATO actions taken against Libya.

Let me explain with a brief timeline regarding NATO actions against Libya:

Protests erupted in Benghazi, Libya. February 15, 2011 A.D.

The revolts spread to Bayda, Tobruk, Ajdabya, Al Marj in the East and Zintan, Zawiya in the West, calling for the end of the Gaddafi Regime. By February 17, 2011 A.D.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benghazi

The United Nations Security Council passed an initial resolution on freezing the assets of Gaddafi and his inner circle and restricting their travel, and referred the matter to the International Criminal Court for investigation. February 26, 2011 A.D.

The Arab League "called on the United Nations Security Council to impose a no-fly zone over Libya in a bid to protect civilians from air attack." The Arab League's request was announced by Omani Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah, who stated that all member states present at the meeting agreed with the proposal. March 12, 2011 A.D

A multi-state NATO-led coalition begins a military intervention in Libya, to implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973, in response to events during the First Libyan Civil War. With ten votes in favor and five abstentions, the UN Security Council's intent was to have "an immediate ceasefire in Libya, including an end to the current attacks against civilians, which it said might constitute 'crimes against humanity' ... [imposing] a ban on all flights in the country's airspace — a no-fly zone — and tightened sanctions on the [Muammar] Qadhafi regime and its supporters." March 19, 2011

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_mili ... _in_Libya

Gaddafi was captured and killed attempting to escape from Sirte. October 20, 2011 A.D.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_o ... r_Gaddafi

So, the actions of NATO were by way of an enforcement of international agreement as constituted by a U.N. Security resolution. They were defensive in the sense of protective of civilians from attack. While those civilians did not reside in a NATO country, NATO was acting as a police agency enforcing a U.N. resolution based on an intent to defend said populace.

Contrast that with Blinken's remarks, which I think more or less accurately reflect the situation.
Don't mourn, organize.

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Cyber_Rebel
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Cyber_Rebel »

erowind wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:46 pm You should all be ashamed, to be willing to throw away your own lives and the lives of everyone you've ever cared about over this.

Russia might actually be fine with a few territories alongside a comprehensive peace agreement and a politically neutral Ukraine. And even if it weren't I don't care. Ukraine and Moldova aren't worth atomizing the planet for.
Ero, I don't think anyone on this forum or in the rest of the civilized world just decided to wake up one day, and say how lovely it would be to live in the Fallout universe. It's also very difficult for us to toss away our own lives when we're not the ones making the decisions. Vladimir Putin is not Russia, that's true, but he represents Russia as its current head of state, and, whether you agree with it or not, the actual values of the Russian people. Even if it's not all of them.
Russia might actually be fine with a few territories alongside a comprehensive peace agreement and a politically neutral Ukraine. And even if it weren't I don't care. Ukraine and Moldova aren't worth atomizing the planet for.
They've ahown repeatedly that these terms just won't do, and why should they even be on the table to begin with? Russia violated its treaties with Ukraine, not the other way around. Moldova... what exactly did they do? What comes after that? Finland? People have the right to defend their autonomy, with or without the mechanizims of the "state" that holds true.

Perhaps Russia should just pull out, go home, and rethink its own values which require the threat of nuclear war to begin with.
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erowind
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by erowind »

Cyber_Rebel wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:31 pm
Ero, I don't think anyone on this forum or in the rest of the civilized world just decided to wake up one day, and say how lovely it would be to live in the Fallout universe. It's also very difficult for us to toss away our own lives when we're not the ones making the decisions.

They've ahown repeatedly that these terms just won't do, and why should they even be on the table to begin with?
By actively participating in the rhetoric that is pro NATO and pro war you and everyone else is here is consenting to the governance choice to war with Russia. That is how the consent of the governed works. It’s an established concept in political philosophy. You actually do have a decision, if the people truly didn’t consent to this war it wouldn’t happen. And democracy is irrelevant. Consent of the social contract of governance is required of all forms of governments.

Now whether that consent is under duress or manufactured is a different story. In our case I wouldn’t say it’s under duress but it is very clearly manufactured. Google Noam Chomsky’s “Manufacturing Consent” for literature on that topic. The concept of the consent of the governed is political philosophy 101.

That in mind, however you all came to conclusion that it’s worth blowing us all to hell you will all hold some responsibility for the event should it happen. As will PheonixRu.

And yes, it would be nice if Russia backed down. But i’m not talking to Russians here generally, though I did leave similar remarks for PheonixRu in my post had you payed attention. By that token all the westerners here should be pressuring our governments to stop escalating into a nuclear war because that’s fucking insane.

And no, I explained the policy consistently and geopolitical context. Russia wouldn’t invade Finland and likely wouldn’t even want all of Ukraine if NATO extended a genuine olive branch. But instead both sides have escalated nonstop. And even if Russia did demand Ukraine or Moldova be annexed or moved into Russia’s sphere neither of those countries no matter their innocence are worth atomizing the planet. The situation will not improve until one side backs down and offers real peace. Russia has been backing down for 30 years why don’t we for once?
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

Russia has been backing down for 30 years...
The Warsaw Pact disappeared and the NATO expanded East, did I get that right?
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Xyls
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Xyls »

Xyls
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Xyls »



This is pretty much my thought. Any nuclear strike on Ukraine no matter how small will likely result in a full conventional NATO intervention into Ukraine, with a no-fly zone. If not an outright transfer of nuclear weapons to Ukraine to use as they wish against Russia. With civil strife starting within Russia as well it will likely also result in NATO stirring up a civil war in Russia's south.
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