AUKUS News and Discussion

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Re: AUKUS News and Discussion

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Re: AUKUS News and Discussion

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Is AUKUS Really An ‘Alliance’?
by Thomas Wilkins
April 4, 2022

https://www.eurasiareview.com/04042022- ... -analysis/

Conclusion:
(Eurasian Review) AUKUS could be characterised as a mix of ‘traditional partners’ and ‘new methods’, that is, it solidifies security relations with established ‘Anglosphere’ confederates whilst adopting a contemporary ‘non-alliance’ mechanism through which to orchestrate and implement collaboration.

Whether AUKUS constitutes a de facto ‘virtual alliance’ is an important distinction, but one that should not occlude the important point that it serves as another minilateral mechanism, alongside the Quad and others, that contribute to Australian national security strategy in the Indo-Pacific.

Whether bona fide alliances are a fading pillar of Cold War statecraft or whether existing ones are resurgent in response to rising challenges in Europe and Asia does not alter the fact that not all security arrangements must be codified as such. No new alliances have appeared since 1960. Calling AUKUS an ‘alliance’ in everyday parlance is understandable, especially in the media, but as I have argued, we need to be circumspect when blithely applying the term to every occurrence of security cooperation. This may reflect the fact that we have yet to fully embrace the complexity of the regional institutional architecture characterised by the appearance of unfamiliar minilaterals and strategic partnerships that do not conform to the dominant alliance paradigm.
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Re: AUKUS News and Discussion

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Potential Gap in Australia Submarine Force Looms as AUKUS Marks First Year
September 16, 2022

Introduction:
(Kyoto News) As the AUKUS trilateral security partnership between Australia, Britain and the United States marked its first anniversary this week, Australian defense officials have stressed that the "optimal pathway" to acquiring nuclear-powered submarines under the pact is taking shape.

But concerns remain over a potential capability gap in the country's submarine force as its current aging conventional submarines are expected to reach their retirement before the new boats can be delivered.

The officials have flagged an announcement early next year on the type of ship the country will use and how any capability gap will be handled.

The AUKUS partnership, announced on Sept. 15, 2021, came in response to increasing security challenges in the Indo-Pacific and has widely been viewed as a move to counter China's growing influence in the region.

Around 50 officials from the United States and Britain were in Australia this week for talks with the country's Nuclear Powered Submarine Task Force, as it nears the end of an 18-month study to determine which boat Australia will pick -- an American or British design, or some kind of hybrid -- the Guardian Australia reported.
Read more here: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/202 ... 1-yr.html
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Re: AUKUS News and Discussion

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Maybe it should be called AUKUSJ News and Discussion.

Japan, Australia Upgrade Security Pact Against China Threat
October 22, 2022

Introduction:
(AP via The Asahi Shimbun) CANBERRA, Australia--Japan and Australia on Saturday signed a new bilateral security agreement to reflect the deteriorating security outlook for their region driven by China's increasing assertiveness.

The upgrade of the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation, a pact first signed in 2007 when China’s rise was less concerning, was the major outcome of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s meeting with his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese in the west coast city of Perth.

It builds on a reciprocal access agreement that Kishida inked in January with then-Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison that removes obstacles to holding joint military exercises in either country.

That is the first such agreement Japan has struck with any country other than the United States. Japan announced on Saturday that its Self-Defense Forces will train and take part in exercises with the Australian military in northern Australia for the first time under the agreement.

In the context of that agreement, Albanese told reporters: “This landmark declaration sends a strong signal to the region of our strategic alignment.”
Read more here: https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14749525
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Re: AUKUS News and Discussion

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Aligning AUKUS and the Quad for Australia’s Defence
by Akash Sahu
December 1, 2022

Introduction:
(East Asia Forum) The conversation on AUKUS and Australia’s defence indicates the need for an advanced industrial base in the country, which can sustain not only the development of nuclear-powered submarines but also align capabilities like hypersonic and Artificial Intelligence (AI)-led military systems. Limitations like the lack of capital and human resources drag down Canberra’s ability to develop better weapons.

Collaboration with AUKUS partners (the United States and the United Kingdom) is crucial for Canberra to procure, test and commercialise the latest military technologies. At the same time, deeper engagement with Quad partners Japan and India can help ensure a robust supply chain network for Australia’s defence industry sector. Both AUKUS and the Quad are driven by shared motives of stabilising regional security in the Indo-Pacific.

The developing geopolitics of the Pacific necessitate credible offensive and defensive capabilities. Mick Ryan from CSIS suggests that Australia should move to short-term ‘asymmetric’ deliverables that can deter Chinese aggression, instead of its heavy focus on longer-term force structure plans. Nuclear-powered submarines will take more than a decade to be ready, but escalating tensions demand at least some capability enhancement within 3–5 years. Since the threat is regional, it involves multiple stakeholders. The development of Australia’s defence industrial base would be easier and faster through institutional collaboration with like-minded partners in the region.

Australia has a strong foundation in research and development. It also exports some defence items, such as the Nulka Active Missile Decoy and Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicle. According to the 2020 Force Structure Plan, Canberra will commit more than US$20 billion to develop high-speed weapons and build defence capabilities against ballistic missiles and high-speed weapons.

The Australian government’s Defence Innovation Hub allocates grants to businesses developing AI technologies with military applications. Some of these include improving situational awareness using available intelligence and achieving intelligent virtual reality for better simulation, modelling and training of the Australian Defence Force. Other programs like the Australian Industry Capability program and Local Industry Capability Plans aim to increase the participation of local defence manufacturers in defence infrastructure projects. Agencies such as Austrade have helped domestic tech firms set up research facilities to test advanced technologies and market commercialisation.
Read more here: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/12/ ... -defence/
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Re: AUKUS News and Discussion

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AUKUS: Reading the Tea Leaves
by Abhijit Singh
March 11, 2023

Introduction:
(Observer Research Foundation via Eurasia Review) Next week is likely to be crucial for Australia. An announcement about an “optimal pathway” for AUKUS, the enhanced trilateral security partnership between the United States (US), Australia, and the United Kingdom (UK), is looming with implications for Australian plans to operate a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines within the next decade. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has called it “the single biggest leap in defence capability in Australia’s history.”

In Canberra, however, there is still some trepidation. Australia requires a favourable path to develop deterrence capabilities against potential adversaries, but even the most positive outcome of the AUKUS consultations is not without drawbacks. The main issue is that many of Canberra’s regional partners oppose the pact which could potentially spark an arms race. Some, like Indonesia, have been open about their reservations. Others, such as India (Australia’s Quad partner), despite being politically supportive of AUKUS, appear conflicted about the prospect of Australian nuclear submarines operating in the regional littorals.

Australia, for its part, has attempted to assuage concerns. Australian policymakers and officials have attempted to explain to their counterparts in regional capitals that AUKUS does not provide Australia with nuclear weapons capability, but rather a means of acquiring only nuclear maritime propulsion. Canberra has even attempted to distinguish AUKUS from other groups such as the Quad. Officials describe the latter as a normative grouping that lays out a vision for the region, whereas AUKUS is a more technical arrangement.

This does not change the fact that AUKUS is a military pact with the potential to shape the strategic contours of maritime Asia. Canberra, Washington, and London have explored a variety of options to achieve their stated goal during the 14-month consultation period between the signing of the agreement and now. They have identified three possible paths, each with implications for the Indo-Pacific power balance.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/11032023 ... analysis/
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Re: AUKUS News and Discussion

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AUKUS Crucial For Balancing Regional Security And Malaysia’s Future Survival
by Collins Chong Yew Keat
March 20, 2023

Introduction:
(Eurasia Review) The landmark pact of AUKUS signals the gravity of security challenges in the region, which finally has jolted the West out of its slumber. Greater cohesion and sharing of the most prized military advantage are not only necessary now, but remain the single most critical factor in the race against time for the most pervasive threat ever threatening the foundation of the rules based order and the resilience of the West since the great wars and the Cold War.

Efforts by the West to court greater responses and measures that can stand up to Beijing’s power manovures have been largely futile, as these regional players are too deeply embedded under Beijing’s orbit and economic grip to risk their future economic survivability and the ensuing internal political survival.

Seeing the subdued response by these players in lacking the seriousness shoring up their own capacities and defences, the West is left with no choice but to stem the tide early on. Having learned from past Cold War experiences and needing to protect the first line of defence, realistic measures of deterrence and containment are the natural responses.

This is reflected in Canberra’s truthful, open and honest acknowledgment of the threat it faces, and is mirrored in the needed actions that will assure its long term security and survival. It remains pragmatic and highly realistic on its current vulnerability, and has also made clear its intent to continue working with Beijing in an open, transparent and engaging manner that will further foster diplomatic and meaningful long term fruitful relationships based on mutual trust and respect. At the very least, it is mindful of its security needs and is doing the right thing, albeit the potential repercussions.
Australia and New Zealand remain the first line of Western presence and containment in the region, and they both cannot afford to fall under Beijing’s measures or power threats in deja vu domino effect.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/20032023 ... analysis/

caltrek’s comment: I think Japan and Taiwan are also a part of that “first line.” Part of the problem is that the U.S. has historically placed conformance with prescribed economic models ahead of a genuine commitment to democracy. Plus many other countries in the region are dominated by tyrants and/or kleptocrats. All this makes for a great challenge to continued coalition building, yet China’s size and growing military sophistication make such coalition building necessary. At least IMHO.
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Re: AUKUS News and Discussion

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Indra Delivers Deployable Air Traffic Management System to Royal Australian Air Force
April 17, 2023

Introduction:
(Eurasia Review) Indra Australia said Monday it has delivered to the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) three Defence Deployable Air Traffic Management and Control Systems (DDATMCS) that will strengthen its capacity for rapid deployment and airspace management anywhere in the world.

The DDATMCS will allow the RAAF to manage approach an en-route air traffic. Two of the systems have two operator positions each and are intended for rapid deployment by air, land or sea for operations of a short duration, such as during Defence assistance to humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations.

This provides the RAAF with a critical deployable capability to safely support incoming flights when air traffic management infrastructure does not exist or has been damaged by disaster or warfighting.

The two systems consists of a deployable and transportable 3D medium range surveillance radar from Indra’s Lanza family of radars and is fully integrated into a mobile Area Control Centre (ACC). The ACC is equipped with Indra’s Air Automation system,which offers state-of-the-art air traffic control, meeting International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and Eurocontrol standards.

The system’s surveillance capabilities are complemented by Indra’s Monopulse Secondary Surveillance Radar with Mode 5 Identification Friend or Foe and ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast) signal reception and treatment system, which supports the early detection of both cooperative and non-cooperative targets.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/17042023 ... ir-force/
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Re: AUKUS News and Discussion

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Australia Held Talks About Buying B-21 Raider Stealth Bombers
by Thomas Newdick
April 24, 2023

Introduction:
(The Drive) Australia considered the B-21 Raider next-generation stealth bomber as a potential addition to its inventory, as it seeks ways to better counter China’s growing military might in the Asia Pacific region. The potential for the B-21 to serve Australia had previously been explored by defense analysts and, last summer, Australia’s Minister for Defense Richard Marles also hinted that a B-21 buy was “being examined.” But this is the first time that the stealth bomber has been discussed in Australia’s most important defense policy document.

In the end, the Australian government determined, unsurprisingly, against a plan to try and buy B-21s, instead choosing to invest further in long-range strike capabilities for its growing fleet of F-35A stealth jets, as well as its F/A-18F Super Hornet fighters. It remains unclear, if not outright unlikely, that the RAAF was ever directly offered to buy the B-21 at all, at least at this time.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... h-bombers

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Re: AUKUS News and Discussion

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caltrek wrote: Mon Apr 04, 2022 3:52 pm Is AUKUS Really An ‘Alliance’?
AUKUS is more of a military-industrial bloc than a treaty alliance.

China now accounts for more global Manufacturing Value Added (MVA) than the U.S. and E.U. combined (well in excess of USD $4 trillion). This disparity is particularly acute wrt military hardware on account of China's civil-military fusion. It's been a few years since I've checked the stats, but in 2019/2020, China launched 80+ million deadweight tonnes (DWT) of shipping -- around 40% of the global sum. The U.S. by contrast launches <1% of the global sum of DWT. The same is true for automobile production; we're looking at ≈25m automobiles per year vs. ≈10 million.

These hard industries, part of what's referred to as the "real economy" by economists, give China an edge in any attritional fight. Because the PLA is expanding at ≈3x the rate of the U.S.' military, in the event of a war, China can absorb far higher casualties and still accelerate its supplanting of the U.S. as the pre-eminent military power. If the PLAN is able to attrition U.S.N. ships, then China can replenish its losses after the war far more quickly than American shipyards.

Potentially more concerningly, however, and likely the primary catalyst for AUKUS is the CCP's push towards technological supremacy in strategic categories.

The ASPI maintains a good tracker of Chinese patents (both in total volume and filtered for highly-cited) here. https://techtracker.aspi.org.au/tech/all/?c1=cn&c2=us.

Thus, we have AUKUS. Aus, the U.K., and the U.S. have agreed to share the keys to the Kingdom with one another wrt sensitive IP.
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