Ukraine War Watch Thread

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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

To defeat Ukraine militarily is one thing...
- The occupation was never a goal.
mixing guerrilla tactics with conventional warfare,
- No war-no peace situation. Egypt lost, the bigger guns win.
until it's no longer viable to keep them there.
- Vietnam, 10 years. Do you know of more examples?
Additionally, the United States and Europe are working behind the scenes
- Not behind the scenes, honestly, we give weapons but you cannot get them.
NATO will escalate
- Escalation, great! How important is it to Russia?
they really do not want Russia establishing a precedent for future scenarios involving other countries.
- That is the key point, Russia, our (US) power, with no competition. (Remind me this when US invades Iran).
Russia just can't win.
- Again, "win" definition.
"Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said both Russia and Ukraine will have to realize that military victory is impossible to achieve and that a negotiated end to the conflict would end the suffering of war".
Russia imploding
- Russia is still here, as US after Vietnam and both after Afghanistan.
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

Maybe, that "implosion" is not going to be that safe for us. Did you think about that?
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Amid Worries Over Russian Forces In Belarus, Former Security Officer Says Belarusian Conscripts Won’t Fight
by Volodymyr Mykhaylov
January 30, 2023

Introduction:
(Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty via Eurasia Review) Belarus’s armed forces could face widespread desertion from conscripts should the country’s strongman leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, order an invasion of Ukraine, a former senior law enforcement official said.

The prediction by Alyaksandr Azarov, who represents an association of former Belarusian security officials, comes amid conflicting signals about whether Lukashenka may finally decide to commit Belarusian troops to the Ukraine invasion, now in its 12th month.

In the run-up to last February’s invasion, Russia held large-scale military exercises in Belarus. But as the exercises wound down, many of the 30,000 Russian troops stationed there were then used to invade Ukraine, in an unsuccessful push south to seize the Ukrainian capital and topple the government.

But while Lukashenka’s government has allowed Russia’s military wide leeway to use Belarusian territory, Lukashenka has sidestepped pressure from Moscow to actively join the invasion.

In November, satellite imagery obtained by RFE/RL’s Belarus Serviceshowed that thousands of Russian troops may have returned to Belarus, renewing questions about another incursion into Ukraine.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/30012023 ... nt-fight/
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weatheriscool
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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U.S. Readies $2 Billion-Plus Ukraine Aid Package With Longer-Range Weapons -Sources
Source: U.S. News and World Report
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is readying more than $2 billion worth of military aid for Ukraine that is expected to include longer-range rockets for the first time and other munitions and weapons, two U.S. officials briefed on the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

The weapons aid is expected to be announced as soon as later this week, the officials said. It is also expected to include support equipment for Patriot air defense systems, precision guided munitions and Javelin anti-tank weapons, they added.

One of the officials said that a portion of the package, $1.725 billion, would come from a fund known as the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which allows President Joe Biden's administration to get weapons from industry rather than from existing U.S. weapons stocks.

The USAI funds would go toward the purchase of a new weapon, Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), which have a range of 94 miles (150 km). The United States has rebuffed requests for the 185-mile (297-km) range ATACMS missile.
Read more: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... ns-sources
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Germany to send 88 Leopard I tanks to Ukraine
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... yndication
The German government has approved the delivery by a private arms-maker of its old Leopard 1 tanks to Kyiv, a government spokesperson said Friday.

“I can confirm that an export license has been issued” for the Leopard 1 tanks, government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said at a press briefing, without confirming specific numbers.

Earlier on Friday, Süddeutsche Zeitung reported that Berlin had approved German arms-maker Rheinmetall’s plans to sell 88 of the older Leopards to Kyiv, once these are repaired, for a total cost of more than €100 million.

The move further signals a reversal of Berlin’s policy on tanks for Ukraine, nine days after the chancellery announced it would send one company of Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv as part of a European coalition.
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

Are we getting rid of the old stock? That is good for business, tanks are always helpful. No pressure to negotiate?
I 1973 it took a while to get them to sit down and talk. Here, they are not that exhausted yet and well, they are only killing Ukrainians.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by wjfox »

This map shows the latest state of control in Ukraine

10 hr 48 min ago

Ukraine is fighting to hold on to the eastern city of Bakhmut, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday.

Communities surrounding the city, including the town of Soledar, have seen some of the fiercest fighting in the conflict in recent months.

This map shows the status of other areas Russia currently occupies in Ukraine:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-new ... index.html


Image
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

ibm9000 wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:46 pm Are we getting rid of the old stock? That is good for business, tanks are always helpful. No pressure to negotiate?
I 1973 it took a while to get them to sit down and talk. Here, they are not that exhausted yet and well, they are only killing Ukrainians.
Umm...acrually a lot of Russian soldiers seem to also be casualties. Certainly not a justification for the war, at least not from me.
Don't mourn, organize.

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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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In Ukraine’s Donbas, Intensifying Russian Offensives: An Omen Of Things To Come?
by Mike Eckel
February 4, 2023

Introduction:
(RFE/RL) — In the eastern city of Bakhmut, months of relentless Russian assaults and waves of World-War-I-style infantry charges are taking their toll on exhausted Ukrainian forces. Just a few kilometers north, Ukrainian soldiers were forced to retreat west and south from the salt-mine town of Soledar after weeks of pounding by Russian troops.

Still further north, Ukraine’s effort to capitalize on a successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region by retaking more territory nearby appears to have stalled at what battlefield experts called the Svatove-Kreminna line, with Russian troops intensifying attacks.

And about 150 kilometers to the south, Ukraine is rushing reinforcements to defend Vuhledar and, according to some reports, push back Russian positions, which now include marine infantry from Russia’s Pacific Fleet.

After months of morale-boosting Ukrainian victories, powered in large part by Western weaponry, the tides of battle are turning yet again: For now, momentum seems to be shifting to Russia, bolstered by tens of thousands of mobilized men and thousands of prison inmates recruited and sprung from behind bars by the notorious mercenary group Wagner.

Ukrainian commanders and political leaders, including President Volodymyr Zelenskiy himself, are warning not only about the difficult conditions that Ukrainian troops are fighting under in multiple locations in the Donbas. They’re also warning of an imminent new Russian offensive, which the current intensifying fighting may be a prelude to.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/04022023 ... analysis/
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Could Brazil’s Lula and Israel’s Netanyahu Help End The Ukraine War?
by Adam Dick
February 4 , 2023

Introduction:
(Eurasia Review) With the United States and a few other nations dumping money and weapons nonstop into Ukraine in an apparent effort to ensure the Ukraine War continues until the death of the last Ukrainian soldier, it can seem that peace has no chance. In fact, it can seem that much more likely than peace breaking out is the war escalating into a full-out world war.

But, there are plenty of nations that have not taken a side in the war. Maybe a move toward peace can be aided by actions of political leaders from some of these nations.

Two national political leaders who have discussed this week the possibility that they could help move down a path to peace are Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Interviewed at CNN, Netanyahu declared that, “if asked by all relevant parties,” which from the context of his comments seems to include Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, he “would certainly consider” becoming a mediator to facilitate ending the Ukraine War.

…Lula, speaking at a joint press conference with Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz, expressed his willingness to help bring a negotiated end to the Ukraine War. Writing about Lula’s comments in a Tuesday Politico article, Hans von der Burchard reported that Lula “proposed to establish a peace-oriented club of nonaligned countries like China, Brazil, India and Indonesia, which he said have thus far not been involved in discussions on the war.” Lula also expressed in the press conference a commitment to continuing Brazil’s detachment from the ongoing war, a position likely advantageous for helping negotiate a peaceful conclusion. Von der Burchard wrote:
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/04022023 ... war-oped/
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