Nuclear Weapons Watch Thread

[firestar464]

Analysis: Weapons potential of high-assay low-enriched uranium fuel poses greater threat than publicly acknowledged

https://techxplore.com/news/2024-06-ana ... assay.html

"pov: you are Iran"

[caltrek]

Likely Nuclear Policy Under Trump
by Joseph Cirincione
July 2, 2024

Introduction:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) President Joe Biden has a terrible nuclear policy. A re-elected President Donald Trump’s would be much worse.
Biden has authorized the largest nuclear weapons budgets since the Cold War, delayed then squandered his chance to contain Iran’s nuclear program, and apparently has no policy for containing North Korea’s missiles and weapons. But a re-elected Trump would put nuclear weapons programs on steroids, trash what remains of the global arms control regime, and likely trigger new nuclear weapons programs in more other nations than we have seen at any time since the early 1960s.

Trump’s nuclear policy is all spelled out in a new conservative manifesto by Project 2025, a coalition of over 100 far-right groups led by the Heritage Foundation, which is widely seen as the template for a possible Trump 2.0 administration. If readers of the Bulletin have heard of Project 2025, chances are that they did not go through its 900-page book “Mandate for Leadership.” They should. This policy agenda, dubbed the “Conservative Promise,” is a blueprint for the most dramatic take-over and transformation of the US democracy in history.

Further Extract:

If this hawkish political coalition gets its way in November, the scope, pace, and cost of US nuclear weapons programs would increase all at once. Their plan, which seeks to significantly increase budgets and deployments of nuclear weapons and related programs and destroy the remaining arms control agreements, would dramatically increase the risks of nuclear confrontation as a result.
…
Nuclear proposals. The nuclear proposals are a key part of the Project 2025 coalition’s recommendations to reshape the Defense Department. This chapter is led by Christopher Miller, a former US Army special forces colonel who served as Trump’s last defense secretary. As Michael Hirsch reports in Politico, the agenda “is far more ambitious than anything Ronald Reagan dreamed up.” (In 1980, President Reagan ordered a massive nuclear buildup, which scholars now consider to have greatly escalated the Cold War.)

Read more here: https://thebulletin.org/2024/07/trump- ... t-heading

A link to the Project 2025 manifesto: https://static.project2025.org/2025_Ma ... _FULL.pdf

[caltrek]

Hundreds of Scientists Urge Biden to Cancel $100 Billion Nuclear Weapons Boondoggle
by Edward Carver
July 8, 2024

Introduction:

(Common Dreams ) More than 700 scientists on Monday called for an end to the United States' land-based nuclear weapons program that's set to be replaced, following a Pentagon decision to approve the program despite soaring costs.

In an open letter to President Joe Biden and Congress, the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) argued that the new intercontinental-range ballistic missile system, known as Sentinel, was "expensive, dangerous, and unnecessary."

The Department of Defense on Monday certified the continuation of the project, releasing the results of a review that was legally required when the cost estimate ballooned to "at least" $131 billion earlier this year, which drew the scrutiny of some Democrats in Congress, according to The Hill.
The Defense review found that Sentinel was "essential to national security," but the scientists disagreed with the assessment.

"There is no sound technical or strategic rationale for spending tens of billions of dollars building new nuclear weapons," Tara Drozdenko, director of UCS' global security program, said in a statement.

Read more of the Common Dreams article here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/scie ... weapons

To read the open letter from the Union of Concerned Scientists: https://ucs-documents.s3.amazonaws.com ... -2024.pdf

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

No First Use of Nuclear Weapons: Rejecting Nuclear Annihilation
by Mark Muhich
August 13, 2024

Introduction:

(Counterpunch) The recent collapse of nuclear weapons talks between China and the United States in July 2024, followed the withdrawal by the U.S. and Russia from long-established nuclear weapons treaties, like the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, (ABM) Intermediate-Range Forces Treaty (INF), and The Iran Nuclear Deal (JPCOA). Nuclear tensions have regressed to dangerous levels not seen since the Cold War.

China suspended nuclear weapons negotiations with the U.S. in Geneva, blaming high levels of arms sales from the U.S. to Taiwan. Earlier nuclear weapons meetings in November 2023 turned accusatory as the U.S. complained of China’s “lack of transparency” and a failure to agree on “risk reduction strategies” while rebuffing the PRC’s offer of a No First Use agreement. China has expanded its nuclear arsenal to 500 warheads, predicted to reach 1000 warheads by 2030. The U.S. contends this arms buildup is inconsistent with China’s No First Use offer. The U.S. currently deploys 1770 warheads and keeps over 5000 warheads in reserve.

The U.S. says China’s proffer of a No First Use agreement is disingenuous because China is constructing hundreds of new ICBM silos in the northwest region of the country. Apace, the U.S. is replacing 400 launch silos in the American northwest to house the new $140 billion Sentinel ICBM fleet.

China blames the U.S. for violating the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) provision to “reduce and eliminate nuclear weapons” by maintaining a huge nuclear arsenal and for threatening the first nuclear strikes to protect its allies under the American “nuclear umbrella”. Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand are now protected by U.S. nuclear weapons through mutual defense treaties. White papers from think tanks like The Atlantic Council recommend the inclusion of Taiwan as well under the U.S. nuclear umbrella increasing the geo-political friction surrounding U.S. / China nuclear negotiations.

Ironically, all five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5) are nuclear-armed countries. However, China remains the only permanent member of the UN Security Council, to adopt the No First Use of nuclear weapons. The other four permanent members, the U.S. U.K., France, and Russia are nuclear-armed states but with nuclear postures that include launching nuclear first strikes.

Read more here: https://www.counterpunch.org/2024/08/1 ... ilation/

[wjfox]

Vladimir Putin warns west he will consider using nuclear weapons

Wed 25 Sep 2024 19.44 BST

Vladimir Putin has escalated his nuclear rhetoric, telling a group of senior officials that Russia would consider using nuclear weapons if it was attacked by any state with conventional weapons.

His remarks on Wednesday came during a meeting with Russia’s powerful security council where he also announced changes to the country’s nuclear doctrine.

The comments marked Russia’s strongest warning yet to the west against allowing Ukraine to launch deep strikes into Russian territory using long-range western missiles.

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has been asking for months for permission to use British Storm Shadow missiles and US-made Atacms missiles to hit targets deeper inside Russia.

Putin said that Russia would consider using nuclear weapons if Moscow received “reliable information” about the start of a massive launch of missiles, aircraft or drones against it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... ar-weapons

[firestar464]

Honestly, this doesn't feel like much of a change relative to public understanding of Russia's nuclear doctrine. I still doubt he will use nukes in Ukraine, as he'd risk direct Western intervention in the war. France has promised to deploy troops in situations like this, and Poland has claimed that the US would conduct massive strikes on Russian troops in Ukraine.

Anyway back to our usually scheduled programming. Give Ukraine the right to strike back, blah blah blah...

[Time_Traveller]

Japanese atomic bomb survivors win Nobel Peace Prize

11 October 2024, 10:07 BST

Nihon Hidankyo, a Japanese group of atomic bomb survivors, has won the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize.

Known as hibakusha, the group is made up of survivors of the 1945 bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It has been recognised by the Norwegian Nobel Committee for efforts to rid the world of nuclear weapons.

Nobel Committee Chair Joergen Watne Frydnes said the group had "contributed greatly to the establishment of the nuclear taboo".

Mr Frydnes warned the "nuclear taboo" was now "under pressure" - and praised the group's use of witness testimony to ensure nuclear weapons must never be used again.

Founded in 1956, the organisation sends survivors around the world to share their testimonies of the "atrocious damage" and suffering caused by the use of nuclear weapons, according to its website.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5y23qgx0qo

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

More on that by Euronews:

https://www.euronews.com/2024/10/29/vla ... o-run-high

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

Putin approves changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine

3 hours ago

Vladimir Putin has approved changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, setting out new conditions under which the country would consider using its arsenal.

The doctrine now says an attack from a non-nuclear state, if backed by a nuclear power, will be treated as a joint assault on Russia.

The update was proposed in September and rubber stamped on Tuesday, the 1,000th day of the war with Ukraine.

It also follows Washington’s decision on Monday to allow Ukraine to fire long-range US missiles into Russia.

Under the changes, a large attack on Russia with conventional missiles, drones or aircraft could meet the criteria for a nuclear response, as could an attack on Belarus or any critical threat to Russia's sovereignty.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4v0rey0jzo


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Moscow claims debris from US-made missile has landed inside its borders – Russia-Ukraine war live

Tue 19 Nov 2024 13.59 GMT

Russia has claimed that debris from a US-made Atacms missile has landed in the Bryansk region.

Russia’s state-owned news agency Tass, citing Russia’s ministry of defence, has reported that the debris fell on a military facility in the Bryansk region. It said there was a small fire.

The ministry said it had shot down five of the missiles over the Bryansk region. The attack resulted in no casualties or damage, it said.

The claims have not been independently verified. Ukraine has not commented on the Russian reports, and there has been no confirmation from US or other allied powers.

The Joe Biden administration had given Ukraine long sought after permission to use the longer-range missiles at targets in the neighbouring Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces have staged an incursion and where Russia has deployed allied North Korean troops.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... 8b23616707



John Hamilton/AP

[wjfox]

'Third nuclear age' threatens the West, armed forces chief warns

5 December 2024, 07:57 GMT

The world is at the dawn of a "third nuclear age" in which Britain is threatened by multiple foes including Russia, the head of the armed forces warned.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said "wild threats of tactical nuclear use" by Russia, China's nuclear build-up, Iran's failure to co-operate with a nuclear deal, and North Korea's "erratic behaviour" were among the threats facing the West.

He emphasised the need for more defence funding and reform in a speech at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) defence think tank on Wednesday.

Despite the warnings, Admiral Radakin said there was only a "remote chance" Russia would directly attack or invade the UK if the two countries were at war.

Admiral Radakin added that Russian President Vladimir Putin is aware of the UK's nuclear arsenal and said it has more impact on him than other threats.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7j3n80vdo

[wjfox]

A pretty terrifying read...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_War:_A_Scenario

"The nuclear war ends less than two hours after it began, leaving most of the Northern Hemisphere decimated and uninhabitable. [...] The Earth itself takes 24,000 years to recover."

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

I'm in two minds about this.

It could be an effective bulwark against Russia.

But at the same time, more nuclear weapons in the world is generally a bad thing...

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Poland ‘must reach’ for nuclear bomb and half-million-man army

March 7, 2025 4:38 pm CET

WARSAW — Poland will look at gaining access to nuclear weapons and also ensure that every man undergoes military training as part of an effort to build a 500,000-strong army to face off the threat from Russia, Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the parliament on Friday.

Tusk said that Poland "is talking seriously" with France about being protected by the French nuclear umbrella. President Emmanuel Macron has opened the possibility of other countries discussing how France’s nuclear deterrent can protect Europe.

Tusk also stressed that Poland cannot restrict itself to conventional weapons.

"We must be aware that Poland must reach for the most modern capabilities also related to nuclear weapons and modern unconventional weapons ... this is a race for security, not for war," he said.

He pointed to the example of Ukraine, which gave up is nuclear arsenal and is now being attacked by Russia.

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald- ... ce-russia/

[firestar464]

I mean, France and the UK already have nukes, so IDK why Poland needs them

[weatheriscool]

Trump is taking the world back to the 18th, 19th and early 20th century. Expect things to become a hell of a lot more violent as every nation arms up and lives in fear of attack.

One of the greatest thing of post wwII was this idea that there was a balance and that nations worked together. We're heading into a pre-wwII world under Trump but with Nukes and vastly more advance tech.

[wjfox]

Iran has amassed even more near weapons-grade uranium, UN watchdog says

May 31, 2025

Iran has further increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, a confidential report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Saturday. In a separate report, the agency called on Tehran to urgently change course and comply with its years-long probe.

The report comes at a sensitive time, as the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to reach a deal with Tehran to limit its nuclear program. The two sides have held several rounds of talks, so far without agreement.

The report by the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency — which was seen by The Associated Press — says that as of May 17, Iran has amassed 408.6 kilograms (900.8 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60%.

That’s an increase of 133.8 kilograms (294.9 pounds) — or almost 50% — since the IAEA’s last report in February. The 60% enriched material is a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. A report in February put this stockpile level at 274.8 kilograms (605.8 pounds).

[...]

Approximately 42 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium is theoretically enough to produce one atomic bomb, if enriched further to 90%, according to the watchdog.

https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear ... 096bcf5cc0

[weatheriscool]

US Air Force's new stealth nuclear cruise missile breaks cover
By David Szondy
June 12, 2025

America's latest nuclear-armed delivery platform breaks cover as the US Air Force releases a rendering of its cutting-edge AGM-181A Long-Range Standoff (LRSO) missile. The missile that has recently undergone flight testing is set to replace its Cold War predecessor.

The world's military inventories have a strange mix of old and new. In some areas, all the equipment is brand spanking new and state-of-the-art, while in others soldiers are handling equipment that their grandfathers used.

https://newatlas.com/military/us-air-fo ... aks-cover/