China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan

[Yuli Ban]

Trump ‘urged Japanese PM not to provoke China over Taiwan’

President Trump has urged the new Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, not to provoke China over the sensitive matter of Taiwan, according to reports.

The intervention will raise concerns in Japan that its ally and military protector is ready to compromise with its increasingly powerful neighbour and leave the country isolated and vulnerable to Chinese aggression.

[weatheriscool]

This thread could probably be renamed "China possible invasion of taiwan news and discussions?

[firestar464]

Taiwan's Military Says Deployed 'Forces' In Response To China's Drills

https://www.barrons.com/news/taiwan-s-m ... s-c12b3a1e

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

China Launches Snap "Warning" Drills Around Taiwan Simulating A Total Blockade

China’s latest live-fire drills around Taiwan include a simulated blockade of the island — a strong possibility should Beijing seek to retake what it describes as a breakaway province that must eventually be reunited. As well as potentially reflecting, at least in part, Beijing’s existing planning for a future invasion of Taiwan, the exercises come at a time of notable tensions between China and the United States, as well as Japan.

This morning, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Eastern Theater Command sent elements from its navy, air force, rocket force, and coast guard to surround Taiwan, as part of a surprise exercise called Justice Mission 2025. The maneuvers began less than an hour after they had been officially announced, and assets said to be involved include destroyers, frigates, fighters, bombers, drones, and long-range missiles. The photo at the top of this story, showing a PLA J-16 Flanker multirole fighter, was released today by the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense, reportedly obtained via the targeting pod of a Taiwanese F-16. It may, however, originate from an earlier occasion.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/china ... l-blockade

[weatheriscool]

[funkervogt]

Let me put the final nail in the coffin of this thread.

A four-star Air Force general sent a memo on Friday to the officers he commands that predicts the U.S. will be at war with China in two years and tells them to get ready to prep by firing "a clip" at a target, and "aim for the head."
In the memo sent Friday and obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, said, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.”

Air Mobility Command has nearly 50,000 service members and nearly 500 planes and is responsible for transport and refueling.

Minihan said in the memo that because both Taiwan and the U.S. will have presidential elections in 2024, the U.S. will be “distracted,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to move on Taiwan.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-general-pr ... 01613.html

[funkervogt]

Let me kick the dead horse. This from 2019.

Retired Japanese general predicts China will invade Taiwan by 2025, Okinawa by 2045

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_p ... 5-1.569228

CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa — A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. The comments by retired Lt. Gen. Kunio Orita, a 35-year veteran of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force and a former commander of the 301st Tactical Fighter Squadron and 6th Air Wing, appeared last month in the English-language Taiwan News.

Orita, who retired in 2009 and is now a guest professor at Toyo Gakuen University in Tokyo, recently told Stars and Stripes he expects Beijing will attempt to expand its sphere of influence by first taking control of Taiwan and then militarizing a key disputed islet in the South China Sea.

Once that’s accomplished, he said, China will set its sights on Japan’s southern island prefecture, which hosts about half of the approximately 54,000 U.S. troops serving in Japan.

[firestar464]

Trump Says ‘It’s Up To’ Xi Jinping What China Does In Taiwan



Related note: This thread should be renamed to "Cross-Strait Tensions News and Discussions" or something

[caltrek]

Clearly, no invasion occurred in 2025. Still, the threat of some future invasion has not disappeared. Allied determination to dissuade China from such an invasion may be very important in China's calculations of the matter. Case in point:

Japan’s Developing Hard Line
By Adam Simpson
February 8, 2026

Extract:

(The Conversation) In November, she (Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi) angered Beijing by saying Japan could intervene militarily to help protect Taiwan in the face of a potential Chinese invasion. This resulted in vicious Chinese attacks on Takaichi that continued into the new year.

While the Japanese public is divided over whether to come to Taiwan’s aid in any conflict with China, there is now strong support for Takaichi’s pledge to increase the defence budget to 2% of GDP by this March, two years ahead of schedule.

In December, the Cabinet approved a 9.4% increase in defence spending to achieve this objective, focusing on domestic production and advanced capabilities (cyber, space, long-range strikes).

In response to rising threats from China, North Korea and Russia, Takaichi’s government also plans to revise Japan’s core security and defence strategies this year.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/japans-roc ... er-274015

[wjfox]

Taiwan reports large-scale Chinese military aircraft presence near island

03/15/2026

Taiwan saw a surge of Chinese military planes near the island, its defense ministry said Sunday, after a sharp drop in flights over the past two weeks had sparked discussions among observers.

The ministry detected 26 Chinese military aircraft around the island on Saturday, with 16 of them entering its northern, central and southwestern Air Defense Identification Zone. Seven naval ships were spotted around the island, it reported.

The increased number of aircraft came after the ministry reported a fall that left analysts scratching their heads about what China’s military may be up to.

Taiwan didn’t report any Chinese military planes that went beyond the median line and entered the zone for a week from Feb. 27 to March 5. After two were detected on March 6, the next four days had none. Such flights resumed in small numbers between Wednesday and Friday.

The drop coincided with the annual meeting of China’s legislature. While such flights have fallen in the past during major events and public holidays, this year’s fall was more prominent than in the past.

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/1 ... d-00829219

[wjfox]

New China air alerts ‘unusual,’ ‘WSJ’ report says

Apr 07, 2026

China has reserved offshore airspace over the Yellow Sea and East China Sea from March 27 to May 6, issuing alerts that are usually used to warn of military exercises, although no such exercises have been announced, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Sunday.

Reserving such a large area for 40 days without explanation is an “unusual step,” as military exercises normally only last a few days, the paper said.

[...]

Ray Powell, director of Stanford University’s SeaLight Project, which tracks Chinese maritime activity, told the paper that the SFC-UNL with “an extraordinary 40-day duration” combined with no announced exercise makes the alerts notable.

“That suggests not a discrete exercise, but a sustained operational readiness posture — and one that China apparently doesn’t feel the need to explain,” the WSJ quoted Powell as saying.

If the reserved airspace is linked to exercises, it “would represent a meaningful shift in how Beijing uses airspace control as a tool of military signaling,” he told the paper.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan ... 2003855165

[weatheriscool]

Thread needs to be renamed

"China threatening to invade Taiwan news and discussions"

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

Shameful.

[raklian]

Shameful.

He probably wants give a China a reason to stay neutral when the United States makes an attempt to annex Cuba or pull it under its economic sphere.