Ukraine War Watch Thread

[ibm9000]

By September

...

It seems another proudly announced future victory failed to materialise

.

and it seems that you are one month in the future...

and no, I don't think it's going to happen, neither in one nor in two months.

[Certain Russian user]

By September

It seems another proudly announced future victory failed to materialise

and it seems that you are one month in the future...

"By September" = "till the end of August". But this is irrelevant, now even The Economist began to introduce their dear readers into the fact that... well, you understand, everything is complicated, Ukraine is "brilliant" in defence but, perhaps, "should not rush" in offence...



Judging by the number of articles, this was an important topic. In one regard they're absolutely right: Ukraine MUST show at least some kind of victory, as its Western sponsors are growing nervous (Ukrainian "victory" in "battle for Kiev" doesn't count and was only good for propaganda purposes). That's why I personally expected (and still do) an attempt of counter offensive no matter what. But, so far, Ukrainian regime switched to plain terrorism: "sowing" the "enemy's" residential areas with thousands and thousands of light anti-personnel mines, killing civil officials in liberated territories, non-stop shelling the NPP near that same Kherson in hope to cause Chernobyl V2... and, last but not least, does not forget to impotently threaten its own citizens receiving Russian humanitarian aid. Well done, motherfuckers, it will surely add 2-3 extra pro-Russian percent on the coming referendums:

[caltrek]

Perhaps the Ukrainian government is more on the side of law and order than certain members of the forum here might suppose.

Russia-Ukraine Live News: Kyiv Denies Involvement in Dugina Death
by Arwa Ibrahim and Federica Marsi
August 21, 2022

Introduction:

(Al Jazeera)
• Ukraine’s top presidential adviser denies Kyiv’s involvement in the death of Darya Dugina, the daughter Putin supporter Alexander Dugin.

• Russia’s defence ministry says that sea-based Kalibr missiles destroyed an ammunition depot containing missiles for US-made HIMARS rocket systems and other Western-made anti-aircraft systems in Ukraine’s Odesa region.

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urges Ukrainians to be vigilant before Independence Day on Wednesday, saying: “We must all be aware that this week Russia could try to do something particularly ugly, something particularly vicious.

• New blasts hit Crimea and a missile attack wounds 12 civilians in Voznesensk, near the Pivdennoukrainsk Nuclear Power Plant, says the governor of the Mykolaiv region.

Read more here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblo ... n-attacks

non-stop shelling the NPP near that same Kherson in hope to cause Chernobyl V2

I should also point out that both sides are accusing the other of this shelling. It would not even be an issue had Putin not decided to invade the Ukraine. At any rate, western news sources have apparently been unable to verify who is doing the shelling at Kherson.

*Waits for cynical response related to why the news media cannot verify this point one way or another.*

[caltrek]

Russia Repels Ukrainian Drones in Crimea as War Broadens
August 20, 2022

Introduction:

(The National) Russian authorities reported shooting down Ukrainian drones on Saturday in Crimea, while Ukrainian officials said Russian forces pressed ahead with efforts to seize one of the few cities in eastern Ukraine not already under their control. The Russian military also kept up its strikes in Ukraine’s north and south.

In Crimea, Russian authorities said local air defences shot down a drone above the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. It was the second drone incident at the headquarters in three weeks and followed explosions at a Russian airfield and ammunition depot on the peninsula this month.

Oleg Kryuchkov, an aide to Crimea’s governor, also said on Saturday that “attacks by small drones” triggered air-defence systems in western Crimea.
The incidents underlined Russian forces’ vulnerability in Crimea.

Read more here: https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/ ... broadens/

caltrek’s comment: I am actually not comfortable with the idea of Ukraine extending operations into Crimea. Another one of those "whether I like it or not" developments. There was another article I came across earlier discussing this issue:

Introduction:

(Antiwar.com) A senior Biden administration official told Politico on Wednesday that the US supports Ukraine striking Crimea, which Russia has controlled since 2014 but neither Washington nor Kyiv recognize as Russian territory.

The official said the US considers strikes on Ukrainian soil “self-defense,” which applies to Crimea in Washington’s eyes. “We don’t select targets, of course, and everything we’ve provided is for self-defense purposes. Any target they choose to pursue on sovereign Ukrainian soil is by definition self-defense,” the official said.

The comments came after a series of explosions at Russian military facilities in Crimea, including a major one at the Saki air base that reportedly destroyed nine Russian warplanes. Officially, Kyiv hasn’t taken credit for the incidents, but Ukrainian officials have strongly hinted at Ukraine’s involvement.

While the recent incidents appear to be acts of sabotage, Ukrainian officials have said they are preparing to use US-provided weapons, such as HIMARS rocket systems, to attack Crimea. Washington doesn’t want Ukraine using US weapons on Russian territory, but Crimea appears to be fair game since the US considers it Ukraine.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Wednesday that there are no restrictions on using US-provided weapons on “occupied territories” of Ukraine. “But if we are talking today about the de-occupation of temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine where the enemy is, then, correspondingly, we have no such restrictions,” Reznikov said.

Read more here: https://news.antiwar.com/2022/08/18/us ... g-crimea/

[ibm9000]

(Al Jazeera)
• Ukraine’s top presidential adviser denies Kyiv’s involvement in the death of Darya Dugina, the daughter Putin supporter Alexander Dugin

.

No Government is going to acknowledge involvement in that "action", maybe, and only maybe, in the killing of his
father; you can always declare him instigator, brains behind or any title you may want to give to somebody you are going to kill anyway.

Let not fool ourselves about our own actions.

[caltrek]

(Al Jazeera)
• Ukraine’s top presidential adviser denies Kyiv’s involvement in the death of Darya Dugina, the daughter Putin supporter Alexander Dugin

.

No Government is going to acknowledge involvement in that "action", maybe, and only maybe, in the killing of his
father; you can always declare him instigator, brains behind or any title you may want to give to somebody you are going to kill anyway.

Let not fool ourselves about our own actions.

How can you jump from "no government is" to let us "not fool ourselves about our own actions'?' Shilling for the Russian government now, perhaps?

You implied something for which you offered zero proof. But, hey, in doing that you have put your own credibility on the line, not mine.

Whatever occurred behind the scenes, the Ukrainian government is publicly distancing itself from such acts of terrorism. Meaning that they are not publicly encouraging such acts. What else do you expect them to do?

Oh, that is right, you are the one that keeps implying they should just abjectly surrender to their wannabe fascist overlords.

[ibm9000]

You implied something...

What did I imply exactly? or maybe more appropriately, how many things do I imply?

J. Khashoggi, did we invade any country -dictatorship~full/imperfect democracy- for that killing? The British G. didn't attempt the murder of B. Devlin, it just let it happened... the Finucane "business" was a bit different, anyway. Did the French G. acknowledge the sinking of the R. Warrior.

Did you realize what you wrote?: behind the scenes/publicly, that is exactly what I expect every government to say, and to do.


I do remember using the word "negotiation", not "surrender" but I maybe wrong, you, seem to be right.

Also, I do remember some kind of protocol/joke from Washington's journalists: it is "unconfirmed" until the Government officially denies it.

(By the way, I don't think they have anything to do with that, but who was trying to get what in... one year? I have no idea; is hitting Putin's circle one possibility?, do you know anybody interested in doing that?)

My bet -my "shilling"- is on hypocrisy, as you know.

[caltrek]

Deteriorating Situation at Ukraine’s Largest Nuclear Power Plant
by Dawn Stover
August 19, 2022

Introduction:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) Russian forces have occupied the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station in southern Ukraine for more than five months, placing the power plant’s six nuclear reactors and its stores of radioactive spent fuel at unprecedented risk. The situation at the plant continues to worsen.

Russia and Ukraine, which blamed each other for earlier attacks on the plant, are this week trading fresh accusations and warning that another attack on the plant is coming soon.

Ukrainian military intelligence told NBC News that Russia had ordered most of the Zaporizhzhia plant’s staff to stay home from work today. On its verified Facebook page, the Ukrainian intelligence directorate of the defense ministry claimed there is a “high likelihood” of a large-scale terrorist attack on the facility.

The Russian Ministry of Defense earlier accused the Ukrainian military of preparing to launch a terrorist attack on the Zaporizhzhia plant. The ministry acknowledged it is considering a shutdown of the plant in response to “negative developments.”

Read more of the cited article here: https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/deteri ... t-heading

The Bulletin also had two other articles related to this same topic:
1) https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/a-ukrai ... t-heading

2)https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/experts ... st-heading

[caltrek]

Russia Repels Ukrainian Drones in Crimea as War Broadens

More on the topic of drone attacks into Crimea:

(The Drive) Ukraine's shadow offensive on strategic Russian targets well behind the front lines appears to be just heating up. The mysterious, 'available on Alibaba,' converted long-range suicide drone was seen in action for the second time today, this time making an attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea. The twin-tail-boom fixed-wing drone was spotted overhead just before a plume rose from the fleet's headquarters. It appears the drone impacted a roofline, damaging it, but there is no word on casualties, at least according to Russian officials.

(See article linked below for several related Twitter feeds).

This is the second confirmed drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet's headquarters in just three weeks. In our coverage of the last attack, we noted it seemed very likely that the operation was just a harbinger of what was to come. That proved all too accurate as targets in Crimea have since come under repeated attack, including a very successful operation against Russian Navy tactical jets at Saki Airbase. Even just the day before yesterday, Russia claimed to shoot down a drone at nearby Belbek Airbase after claims began to emerge of more explosions there. Satellite imagery proved that the base was left untouched. Other targets in Crimea have included large ammunition stockpiles, meanwhile similar targets continue to mysteriously go up in flames in border areas of Russia proper.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... ikes-again

[caltrek]

You implied something...

What did I imply exactly? or maybe more appropriately, how many things do I imply?

You implied that the Ukrainian government sponsored the terrorist attack under discussion.

Yes, you are a slippery one who implies many countless things. Beyond my feeble grasp to keep up with, I am afraid.

J. Khashoggi, did we invade any country -dictatorship~full/imperfect democracy- for that killing? The British G. didn't attempt the murder of B. Devlin, it just let it happened... the Finucane "business" was a bit different, anyway. Did the French G. acknowledge the sinking of the R. Warrior.

More what aboutism that belongs in a different thread (or threads) that I will not honor with a further response.

Did you realize what you wrote?: behind the scenes/publicly, that is exactly what I expect every government to say, and to do.

Hard to understand exactly what you are saying. What you expect for moral reasons? Ethical reasons? Cynical reasons? For the sake of being realistic?

Again, hard for me to understand your point here.

I do remember using the word "negotiation", not "surrender" but I maybe wrong, you, seem to be right.

Fair enough. Do you now wish to embrace the idea of supporting a negotiated settlement?

Also, I do remember some kind of protocol/joke from Washington's journalists: it is "unconfirmed" until the Government officially denies it.

Nice, I will have to remember that one.

(By the way, I don't think they have anything to do with that, but who was trying to get what in... one year? I have no idea; is hitting Putin's circle one possibility?, do you know anybody interested in doing that?)

...know anybody Interested in doing that? Personally, no. I imagine there might be some genuine home-grown terrorists, possibly with sympathies to Ukraine, but that is different from sponsored terrorists acting in collusion with the Ukrainian government. At any rate, that (what I am saying in this response) is all just speculation.

My bet -my "shilling"- is on hypocrisy, as you know.

No, I don't know that, but thank you for the clarification.

Would it not be hypocrisy to completely endorse the lies put out by one government, especially one that lied about its intentions to invade in the first place, while seeking to cast in doubt everything stated by another government, especially one that is victim of said invasion?

To your credit, you have also been critical of Certain Russian's pro-government comments, but I can only take at face value your reasons for doing that.

[ibm9000]

> You implied...
Did I? I do imply that governments do "stuff" and lie about it; we did agree on that.

> hard for me to understand...
As above.

> Do u now wish...
Now?, you have been missing a lot.

> Personally no...
There is a faction in Putin's government that wants a change of direction, the elimination of (her father) is a way to achieve that goal. Is that a possibility?
Somebody in the Ukrainian Intelligence thought that the elimination of (her father) will open useful negotiations, with or without orders acted on that premise. Is that a possibility?
A group from... Chechnya/China/US... is trying to create more chaos. Is that a possibility?

I have no information about the operation, but the information to carry it out seems a bit harder to get.
We will get details about it in... 50 years? How truthful are going to be any leaks by Russia, Ukraine or US?
Also, I haven't seen many years for the victim of that terrorist attack; not for those in Kabul: hypocrisy?

> completely endorse...
I disagree.

"Ukrainian offensive"...
I am critical with every "quick" -and usually wrong and/or uninformed- interpretation.

The "reasons" behind have nothing to do with the validity of an argument; to accept what you "like" is called Confirmation Bias. What I have is doubts, but not about the use of the word "strategy" in a military sense, for example.

Hopefully, you will excuse me if I don't value highly your "credit", that of a whitewashed from my point of view.

[caltrek]

> You implied...
Did I? I do imply that governments do "stuff" and lie about it; we did agree on that.

Yes, but you reiterated that point while discussing a terrorist incident in Russia. In that context implying that the government statement in question was a lie, and that the government was therefore involved despite their denial. Further, you deleted my reference to the statement made by a Russian government spokesperson. I also made other recent Russian government references to statements regarding shooting down of drones. No comments about governments lying or distorting the news in that instance either. Really, a Russian government propogandist could not have done more to argue the case against Ukraine. Casting doubts on the Ukrainian government while giving the Russian government a free pass.

> Do u now wish...
Now?, you have been missing a lot.

First you can't remember what you said, now I "have been missing a lot." Noticeably absent is your failure to answer the simple question: do you now favor a negotiated settlement?

No need to comment on what I have "been missing." Just, please, answer the question.

> Personally no...
There is a faction in Putin's government that wants a change of direction, the elimination of (her father) is a way to achieve that goal. Is that a possibility?
Somebody in the Ukrainian Intelligence thought that the elimination of (her father) will open useful negotiations, with or without orders acted on that premise. Is that a possibility?
A group from... Chechnya/China/US... is trying to create more chaos. Is that a possibility?

Sure, why not? So, maybe the Ukrainian government spokesman was telling the truth.

[caltrek]

I have no information about the operation, but the information to carry it out seems a bit harder to get.
We will get details about it in... 50 years? How truthful are going to be any leaks by Russia, Ukraine or US?

Sure, now you write this, after implying that the Ukrainian government spokesperson was lying. Now you admit that maybe that spokesperson was being truthful.

No, actually, you haven't admitted that, but you do seem to have at least admitted that you do not know.

The "reasons" behind have nothing to do with the validity of an argument; to accept what you "like" is called Confirmation Bias. What I have is doubts, but not about the use of the word "strategy" in a military sense, for example.

If you can't even explain your reasons, then how in the hell are the rest of going to figure out what you believe. Especially in light of your continued habit of evading the answering of simple questions.

Do you now believe that the war should be resolved through a negotiated settlement?

Do you think Al Qaeda based in Afghanistan was involved in the attack of 9/11?

What more did you expect from the Ukrainian government spokesperson regarding the issue in question?

Not "what did you expect," but "what more did you expect"?

No answers from you, just continued evasions.

Meanwhile, all sorts of short citations in which the reader must infer or imply what you are trying to say, combined with complaints of what I have "been missing."

I am not a mind reader. I will not continue to construct your argument for you by extrapolating from your incomplete and incoherent thoughts. That is not a problem of "confirmation bias." That is a problem of poor communication of your argument. If you cannot present your argument in a coherent fashion, then what is there to agree or disagree with?

If all you have got is innuendo, then what does that say about your credibility?

When I cited the Ukrainian government spokesperson, I did not insist that his statement be taken as the final word on the subject. I simply pointed out an official position as articulated by that spokesperson. If you are not even willing, as initially seemed to be the case, to consider the situation from that point of view, then who is guilty of confirmation bias?

Edit: That some governments have lied on some occasions, does not mean that all governments lie on all occasions. There is a possibility of lying, there is also the possibility of telling the truth.

[caltrek]

Russian Security Service Accuses Ukraine of Darya Dugina's Murder
by Tim Lister, Uliana Pavlova and Lauren Said-Moorhouse
August 22, 2022
Introduction:

(CNN) (CNN)Russia has blamed Ukrainian special services for the murder of Darya Dugina, a Russian political commentator and the daughter of prominent ultranationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

"The murder of journalist Darya Dugina has been solved, it was prepared by the Ukrainian special services, by a citizen of Ukraine," TASS reported, citing Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), which named a woman as the perpetrator and said she had fled to Estonia after the attack.

Ukraine has denied any involvement in Dugina's killing, calling the FSB claims fiction.

Dugina, the editor of a Russian disinformation website, died after a bomb planted in a car she was driving went off in the outskirts of Moscow on Saturday evening.

Read more here: https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/22/europe/ ... ndex.html

caltrek’s comment: More fog of war with both sides blaming each other. Note that CNN quotes both governments for their respective positions on the matter.

[weatheriscool]

Russians blame Ukrainian woman for car bomb near Moscow that killed Putin ally
Source: USA Today

The car bomb that killed hardline TV commentator Daria Dugina near Moscow was the work of a Ukrainian woman who fled to Estonia after the blast, state-run Russian news agencies reported Monday.

"The crime was prepared and committed by the Ukrainian special services," Tass said in a Telegram post Monday.

-snip-

Russian security services said suspect Natalia Vovk arrived in Moscow a month ago with her daughter and rented an apartment in the building Dugina lived in. On the day of the blast, Vovk and Shaban attended the literary and music festival Tradition, where Dugina was an honorary guest. After the remote-controlled explosion, Vovk and her daughter fled through the Pskov Region to Estonia, the security services said.

Saturday was Estonia's Restoration of Independence Day, marking 31 years since the end of Russia's occupation of the nation of 1.3 million people.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... =AAZPON3|9

[weatheriscool]

Area near Ukraine nuclear plant hit again despite US pleas
Source: AP

By HANNA ARHIROVA

NIKOPOL, Ukraine (AP) — Russian shelling across the river from Ukraine’s main nuclear power plant wounded four people Monday, an official said, hours after the latest international pleas to spare the area from attacks to prevent a catastrophe.

Meanwhile, Russia blamed Ukrainian spy agencies for the car bombing on the outskirts of Moscow over the weekend that killed the daughter of a far-right Russian political thinker and ardent supporter of the invasion of Ukraine.

On the battleground, the city of Nikopol, about 10 kilometers (six miles) downstream from the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant, came under fire three times overnight from rockets and mortar shells. Houses, a kindergarten, a bus station and stores were hit, authorities said.

Mayor Oleksandr Saiuk said four people were wounded, and two of them were hospitalized.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 029ecc257d

[raklian]

[wjfox]

[ibm9000]

I am not a mind reader...

Yes, you are. Every time you say that "I imply" that is exactly what you are doing. What do you know about me?, you've got an impression based on a few posts, that's all.

Yes, but...

No, that is what you imply based on your experience, on your opinion, on your knowledge. You do not know what -if- I imply. Use your imagination to create a second implication, then a third and then explain to yourself why the second is valid but not the third. You create the implication you want, the one you like, that one you are comfortable with.

First you can't remember...

I don't have to remember, it has been written down. I haven't seen you telling us about your tears ("years" in the post) for her, you forgot to answer that one? This is a forum, I will give my opinion about what I want, I will answer what I want, as you do.
Did I sign any agreement to answer every question?, are you going to invade my home if you don't get what you want? Flip a coin, if you just want that y/n, flip a coin, is going to be as relevant.
Yes, I do understand that to maintain a conversation we need some answers and more questions about then. Hopefully, you understand this is a forum, not a thesis and I am not here to humour you.

An argument -opinions here- is valid on its own merit.
Explaining my reasons is irrelevant -and I don't have to if you graciously allow me; us?-, what I believe -really unfortunate word you used-, my weight, the colour of my skin carry little wight; none, actually. It is valid or not, how many likes it got and if you like it is irrelevant.


There are two options -(The enemy will take the fourth)- the government is going to make no comment or deny. I expect the "I dindn't do it", because that is what they do, that is why the reference to the R. Warrior. The statement itself is irrelevant, the government is not going to acknowledge a terrorist attack; unless you are the US government but then you call it something else.

There is a possibility of lying, there is also the possibility of telling the truth.

Such wisdom says a lot about... the credulity of everybody around here?

Zelensky is an idiot.
Two days after the invasion, meaningful negotiations should have been started. After the fall of Mariupol, that was a great opportunity for meaningful negotiations, Russia won a victory but it had to pay for it. Russia has the winning hand -if you care to look at the map-, Zelensky has to use his card, he has to start negotiating so US and Turkey and whoever can start offering trinkets.

The story goes that, after the failed counterattack they called von Runsted about what to do: Make peace, you idiots!
Make peace, you idiot! This is my statement, this is my opinion. Do I imply Putin is smart?: whatever you want, honey. All the implications are yours, not mine.


(If you want me to use more words, you have been using far to many words to say just that).

[ibm9000]

So, to recap

About... "quick" interpretation:

40+ dead...

Have you identify all of them?
Where is the Ukrainian economy?

In the process...

and that is going to take how long?, are you sure we are going to end the process?, we are not going to go back to business?, sure?

Ukraine enjoys...

for how long?

Assassinations in Moscow...

is that something new?; anyway, they seem to be doing as good as London, Paris, Madrid and Bruxelles... not to mention US.