Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcFz7k9WIAI ... =4096x4096

This actually looks like an offensive... even if I don't know if it's going to be another Falaise.
Are the Russians going to abandon Balakliya?, are the Ukrainians going to take Kupiansk?, are they going to consolidate and keep nibbling?...
I don't think the war is going to be decided there and some people are already reading too much here: Russia has lost the war, again.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Posted by forum member "Girkin" on SkyscraperCity:

----------

A little about the problems (the most acute ones) that do not allow me to criticize the fighters and commanders of the DNR/LNR, who (according to some couch strategists) "do not hold their positions steadfastly enough." Which (in the opinion of these bloggers) is the reason for the rapid advance of the enemy in a number of important sectors during his current offensives.
For clarity, I will give a "generalized portrait" of a company of Donetsk / Luhansk "mobiks" [conscripted separatists] operating on the Nth direction of the Nth front.
So:
The company had been conscripted as part of some reserve regiment of the DNR in late February or early March of this year. From its initial rolls, 3-5 people previously saw combat, another 15 served in the army (any army - Soviet, Ukrainian, DNR/LNR.) The company is commanded by a reserve officer who has no fighting experience whatsoever, neither in 2014 nor later. Sometimes (not always) he has a deputy officer - a similar reserve officer with no combat experience. Platoon commanders were appointed out of those who were "at least close to combat" from 2014 to 2022. There weren't enough of them left to command squads.
For six months, the company (initially numbering just over 100 people) greatly "lost weight": from a quarter to a third of the personnel. Approximately half of the losses were in combat: artillery shelling, sniper strikes, being captured by a Ukrainian recon force, etc. The rest dropped out as a result of an exacerbation of old diseases that did not allow their owners to serve and were not identified during conscription due to the complete absence of a medical commission (or its conduct according to the principle: "Do you have a head, two arms and two legs? Are you younger than 70? Fit for service!") Half of the remaining fighters aged 60-70 are fit for limited service due to old age and diseases that have not yet made their owners bedridden. 85% of the personnel of the company were not on home leave for more than six months, and 15% of the lucky ones were on leave for five days (plus two days for travel, which few of them managed to meet due to difficulties with transport.)
The company is armed, for the most part, with AK-74 assault rifles of the 2nd or 3rd wear category, but a certain number of Mosin-Nagant rifles and Degtyarev machine guns (DP-28) are still in service. No mortars, 1-2 grenade launchers (there are a dozen of them for the entire regiment), one DShK heavy machine gun which no one in the company knows how to use, not to mention disassemble / assemble it. No body armor. There are no means of communication. No night vision devices or (especially) thermal imagers. The company commander has a single pair of tourist binoculars. The existence of drones is well known, not because of their presence in the company, but because such enemy aircraft regularly correct artillery fire on the company or drop munitions on it. The only entrenching tools are those found and collected in nearby villages. The company does not have its own transport (and almost none of it in the regiment), but - for the reasons stated below - even its presence in the regiment does not affect the capabilities of the company in any way.) Uniforms and shoes, which were received half a year ago by the method - "what was thrown during the distribution and what I managed to catch" - have worn out in places to tatters, but no one is in a hurry to replace them. With all the rest of the equipment, the picture is the same - its replenishment occurs among soldiers almost exclusively at the expense of those who have departed.
The entire regiment, assembled in early March of this year - received no training AT ALL (so even company commanders often didn't even know how to load a magazine into an assault rifle at the beginning of the campaign.) They were initially sent to various regions to guard rear checkpoints. Then, someone at the top decided that the "mobiks" [separatist conscripts] were too well armed and "settled too well", so they were replaced at the checkpoints by heavily armed RosGuard troops [Russian Kadyrovites], and the regiment was pulled apart on a front 50-70 km wide, with many companies ending up in not only different Russian regiments and brigades, but even different "armies" and "corps."
Our "exemplary" [DNR] company, for example, turned out to be attached to the Nth [Russian] battalion of the Nth separate motorized rifle brigade. There are about 50 people in the battalion (including rear troops), of which half are officers. A third of the rest are KIA/WIA, and two-thirds are deserters (since the battalion also did not change or replenish for half a year.) The battalion "shared" with the company a whole major from the chemical defense unit, as well as a warrant officer, but (what bad luck!) both of them were captured two weeks ago by a Ukrainian recon unit, together with 9 fighters from our company. Why? Because even our "sparse" company turned out to be stretched for one and a half kilometers of the front (sometimes more), its platoons and forward operating bases are at distances between themselves beyond visual range, no one in the company has heard of "secure comms", and the commanders are not able (due to the lack of both experience and authority) to force their exhausted fighters to go beyond the forward trenches.
There is no barbed wire in front of the company's positions. No camouflage nets. No one knows that signal mines exist in nature, since no one has ever seen them. They suspect the enemy has anti-personnel mines since there have already been a couple of explosions in their rear (or those set up by enemy recon units.) There are no anti-tank mines either (neither are there any in the supply battalion.) Illumination missiles? The battalion commander has enough of those to count on the fingers of one hand, but he does not give them to the conscripts. Same with smoke grenades and other engineering munitions.
In the event of an enemy attack, the company is ordered to radio about the attack and "firmly defend, waiting for reinforcements."
At the end of summer, the enemy suddenly opens heavy artillery fire on the trenches of the company. Since all positions had been spotted long ago, the command post of the company is destroyed immediately. Together with the only radio. One platoon of the company, where there was no commander (he fell ill a week ago, having being conscripted despite having diabetes) ran as soon as the shelling stopped. Another platoon, having got out of hiding, found at the edge of the trench a group of heavily armed men in unknown uniforms and with blue ribbons on their sleeves. A couple of soldiers ran and were immediately shot dead. The rest were taken prisoner. The third platoon managed to get together and fired back at the enemy all day, even managing (probably) to inflict some losses on him. But by nightfall, the platoon ran out of ammunition for the rifles and grenades for the grenade launchers. In addition, the village it was defending was shelled by its own artillery (since there is no communication or spotters.) Having lost half of its personnel, the platoon retreated to the rear in the dark, carrying out several wounded. To their credit, no one surrendered voluntarily.
The next day, the [Russian] battalion commander reported to the top that: "the DNR conscripts fled at the first shots, so we could not hold the position." The commander prudently omitted to report that his battalion (starting with the battalion staff officers) hastily retreated long before the aforementioned DNR platoon had used up their ammunition.
And whoever tells me that everything described is "a lie and a provocation" - I will laugh in his face. Even if it is a police investigator.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Love to see it



Good animated map of the apparent collapse of the Russian front in Kharkiv. The Ukrainians are going to surround Izyum and could even start retaking parts of Luhansk within days.

Looks like the Kherson offensive may have been a feign and the Russians redirected so many units that the northern part of Donbass is exposed. Also Russia will have serious problems resupplying their troops if this area falls.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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General Staff: Russia has lost 51,900 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24.
Source: Kyiv Independent
General Staff: Russia has lost 51,900 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24. Ukraine’s General Staff reported on Sept. 9 that Russia had also lost 2,122 tanks, 4,575 armored fighting vehicles, 3,399 vehicles and fuel tanks, 1,237 artillery systems, 306 multiple launch rocket systems, 159 air defense systems, 239 airplanes, 211 helicopters, 884 drones, and 15 boats.
Read more: https://kyivindependent.com/uncategoriz ... nce-feb-24
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'Substantial victory' for Kyiv as Russian front crumbles near Kharkiv
Source: Reuters

KYIV, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Ukrainian forces were charging through an expanding area of previously Russian-held territory in the east on Friday after bursting through the frontline in a surprise breakthrough that could mark a major turning point in the war.

After keeping silent for a day, Moscow effectively acknowledged that a section of its frontline had crumbled southeast of Ukraine's second largest city Kharkiv.

"The very fact of a breach of our defences is already a substantial victory for the Ukrainian armed forces," the head of the Moscow-installed administration for occupied areas in Kharkiv province, Vitaly Ganchev, said on Russian state TV.

Ganchev later said his administration was trying to evacuate civilians from cities including Izium, Russia's main stronghold and logistics base in the province near the front in the east.
/snip

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bl ... 022-09-08/
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Water »

It's telling that when I look up Russian propaganda, much of it seemed to move from denial to outright silence.

I've been wondering about that lately. When Russia has been defeated, how will the media deal with it? Admitting it is out of the question, but at a certain point, so is lying about it.

My guess is something similar to the current silence, not talking about it at all, and just pretend it never happened. If they fine or jail people for even calling it a "war", it wouldn't even surprise me if the war becomes an illegal topic to even talk about post-defeat.

[edit] Haven't considered the possibility of Russia claiming victory once they have "succeeded in the main goal of evacuating all Russian speaking people from the evil Ukraine".
I still think the microwave is the most sci fi invention so far.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Water wrote: Fri Sep 09, 2022 5:51 pm It's telling that when I look up Russian propaganda, much of it seemed to move from denial to outright silence.

I've been wondering about that lately. When Russia has been defeated, how will the media deal with it? Admitting it is out of the question, but at a certain point, so is lying about it.

My guess is something similar to the current silence, not talking about it at all, and just pretend it never happened. If they fine or jail people for even calling it a "war", it wouldn't even surprise me if the war becomes an illegal topic to even talk about post-defeat.

[edit] Haven't considered the possibility of Russia claiming victory once they have "succeeded in the main goal of evacuating all Russian speaking people from the evil Ukraine".
I can also believe that they will argue that they were not defeated by Ukraine, but by the united forces of NATO, which is what they were afraid of in the first place. It will be something like "it is a good thing that we struck when we did, or the situation would be far worse."
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ukraine Advances Against Russian Lines, Raising Hopes of Victory
by Cain Burdeau
September 9, 2022

Introduction:
(Courthouse News) — Ukrainian forces on Friday were in control of Balakliya, a small city southeast of Kharkiv, and pressing forward against Russian troops who appeared to be retreating along parts of the northeastern front lines.

Kyiv's advances were hailed as a potentially major turning point in a brutal war that's raged for more than six months and left much of eastern and southern Ukraine in ruins. Tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides have been killed and at least 5,718 civilians have been killed, according to United Nations data.

Confidence in Kyiv's ability to defeat Russian President Vladimir Putin's army was on the rise following this week's massive counterattacks in the south and north by the armed forces of Ukraine.

There were growing signs that Russian forces were potentially disorganized and overwhelmed by Ukraine's counteroffensive along front lines southeast of Kharkiv, the country's second-largest city. Also noteworthy has been the silence from Russia's defense ministry over the status of combat in the Kharkiv region.

But it remained far too early to assess how decisive Ukraine's momentum has become and speculate about a possible collapse of Russian defenses. Ukraine has a numerical advantage in soldiers, perhaps as much as 3-to-1, but its army is facing an adversary with more artillery and an air force that has remained mostly on the sidelines until now. Russia may also be retreating in places due to its numerical inferiority and because it is opting for a mobile defense.
Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/ukraine ... -victory/
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Contact Group Aids Ukraine’s Current Battle, Looks To Long-Term Assistance
by Jim Garamone
September 9, 2022

Introduction:
(Department of Defense via Eurasia Review) Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III announced President Joe Biden’s approval of the transfer of $675 million worth of U.S. military capabilities to Ukraine, but the emphasis of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, is on long-term assistance to the nation as it confronts the Russian invasion.

Austin convened the in-person meeting of the group saying the more than 50 nations involved are looking to intensify the momentum for aiding Ukraine.

Austin told the group that President Joe Biden had approved the latest tranche of U.S. assistance to Ukraine. It is the 20th drawdown of equipment from U.S. stocks for Ukraine since August 2021.

“The latest package includes more [guided multiple launch rocket systems], 105-millimeter howitzers, artillery ammunition and [high-speed anti-radiation missiles], Humvees, armored ambulances, anti-tank systems, small arms and more,” he said. “And since our last meeting in July, many allies and partners have come forward with their own important new deliveries of advanced radars, tanks, and armored personnel carriers.”

Austin and Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, met with Oleksii Reznikov, Ukrainian defense minister, and Lt. Gen. Yevhen Moisiuk, Ukrainian deputy chief of defense, before the group convened. The Ukrainians gave updates on battlefield conditions in the country and their military needs.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/09092022 ... sistance/
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Russia Faces Dissent in the Military
by Alec Dubro
September 9, 2022

Introduction:
(Eurasia Review) In early March, Vladimir Putin told French President Emmanuel Macron that his invasion of Ukraine was “going according to plan,” and that its goals would be “fulfilled.” He has never backtracked on that claim. In fact, he has only doubled down and has been forced to continue in a war—that he refuses to call a war—that has drained manpower and materiel in pursuit of an uncertain goal.

But if Putin stoutly maintains both the strategy and the outcome, increasing numbers of both soldiers and civilians beg to differ. The critics within the military are using a variety of tactics—from online campaigns to desertion—to make their voices heard.
And although Russia has tried very hard to hush up refuseniks in the army, news has leaked out.

Rising Rates of Refusal

Desertion and AWOLs are part of any war, and the Russia-Ukraine War is no different. It’s not surprising that Ukrainian troops are fleeing the incessant shelling and the often-chaotic organization on the front lines. It’s a bit harder to grasp when troops in the supposedly larger, better-equipped Russian army are fleeing in large numbers as well.

But that they are, although comprehensive numbers are difficult to come by. In fact, it’s difficult to determine just how many troops Russia has poured into Ukraine, and how that has changed since the April invasion. Just one example: In June, the New Voice of Ukraine posted a story that 200 Russian deserters were wandering the woods in a town near the city of Kharkiv. “They (the Russians) came back here—injured, covered with dirt, hungry, full of anger, with their equipment damaged,” an official with the Borova council wrote. Russia, however, has not acknowledged these desertions, though the Russian Duma has proposed harsher penalties for soldiers going AWOL.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/09092022 ... ary-oped/
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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I am not sure we should trust eurasianews source...
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Admittedly, the article below is a little dated. It was cited in the Eurasia Review article featured above and may still be highly relevant to the current situation in Ukraine.

Defections are Crucial to Ending Putin’s War — Russian Soldiers Looking for a Way Out Need Support
by David Cortright
April 22, 2022

Introduction:
(Waging Nonviolencd) Putin’s greatest vulnerability may be his dependence on the willingness of Russian soldiers to do his dirty work. Although many in Russia have been conditioned to accept Kremlin propaganda, others have doubts about the war, including some of the troops who have been sent to fight and the young men now facing conscription and possible deployment to the front. A strategy of encouraging noncooperation and defection among Russian troops deserves consideration as a means of undermining the war.

Recently I joined with other former U.S. soldiers who opposed the Vietnam and Iraq Wars to issue an open letter urging Russian soldiers to “listen to your conscience.” The invasion of Ukraine is a violation of international law, our letter says, citing the International Court of Justice ruling against Russia. No soldier should be required to follow such orders.

The letter has been released to the press and through social media. The signers are also urging the United States and European governments to grant asylum to Russian soldiers and military officials who refuse to serve in the war.

The Russian army units sent to attack Kiev and other cities have experienced significant morale and disciplinary problems. Some of the forces apparently committed atrocities and are responsible for war crimes, but there have also been reports of dissension, desertion and refusal to fight among some units, including in the elite Russian National Guard. According to the chief of Britain’s signals intelligence and security agency, Russian troops have refused to carry out orders, sabotaged their own equipment and even accidentally shot down one of their own aircraft.

Given draconian censorship in Russia and the pervasive information campaigns emanating from both sides in the war, it’s impossible to verify claims about military defection. What’s undeniable, though, is that Russia’s vaunted army performed poorly in the first phase of its attempt to subjugate Ukraine, and it’s likely that low morale and discontent in the ranks have contributed to that result.
Read more here: https://wagingnonviolence.org/2022/04/ ... -ukraine/
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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RUSSIA FACES DISASTER AT IZYUM

Ukraine is about to surround the city of Izyum and thousands or Russian soldiers are likely to be killed or captured.







Very exciting. :)
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

What is this?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcPsOw9WAAU ... name=small

Another Fairy Tale from our Russian friend? ISW is still (10/09 GMT) on two days ago and Visegrad got that... from where?
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

At last something like (good old) war -not to mention the usual killing.

Ukrainian advance north of Horokhovatka, -not south to Oskil-; Ukrainian forces 5km south from Kupiansk; a race for reinforcements...

Where is the VVS? Really, this looks like the perfect opportunity... In 1973 Israel lost more than a few planes trying to destroy the pontoons crossings, like US trying to destroy the Thanh Hoa bridge -not cutting the traffic, a completely different thing-; at least, it was doing something.
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