Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Powers]

^ Now we have a super-iran.

[firestar464]

Does not seem to me Ukraine will win. All West demoralized and abandoning them, and Ukrainians are recognizing they've been had.


I called it almost 2 years ago. I've no idea why anyone trusts America anymore. You'd think after we stabbed Gaddafi, Saddam, the Mujahideen, etc. in the back, people would've learned by now.
Perhaps there was a hope that this time would be different? But it seems to me more like Congress wanted to boost its warchest and try to deplete Russian stocks— which backfired since Russia is manufacturing loads more weaponry, is virtually immune to Western sanctions now, no longer abides by a critical nuclear treaty, and has a patriotic war to mythologize to boost an already macho warrior culture. Sure it didn't go particularly well, but few wars do.

On one hand, you don't want to think Congress was that stupid and there had to be an ulterior motive for all this beyond just the usual geopolitical posturing. Maybe Israel came first in defense priority? But it's hard to deny that it certainly feels like the UN hedged its bets on a quick Russian collapse once the quagmire settled, and when that didn't happen either, it's more become a slugfest trending towards a bitter armistice.
Can't say that the media blitz portraying this like Ukraine has been on the verge of overrunning the Kremlin for the past 18 months won't break some brains when it's suddenly being reported that there's a ceasefire on Russian terms soon. It'll at least be neat to see how people rationalize news of what's essentially defeat when it's all been tales of glorious victories so far.

I say Ukraine is still pretty interested in fighting, but yes if Murica doesn't step up its damn game, then Ukraine is screwed

[erowind]

It'll at least be neat to see how people rationalize news of what's essentially defeat when it's all been tales of glorious victories so far.

There won't be any rationalizing, people will just believe whatever narrative is being pushed by western media outlets and then augment it with twitter arguments if they're really into it for whatever reason. The same is generally true for Russians with their own media too, PheonixRu was probably a good rough barometer for how Russians feel about the war. He was talking about how America was the enemy for years to justify his own nationalism and now here we are :/

I still think the best thing for eastern Europe in general is a true peace agreement. NATO has to disband in former soviet countries for it to work and former soviet countries in general should gain equal tariff free access to both European Union and Eurasian Union markets. The military concerns could be solved by a defensive military pact between former soviet countries that is barred from receiving funding or intelligence from both the United States or Russia. This would Include every former Warsaw Pact country but Russia and include a new nuclear arms control treaty. This is the sort of solution that a real anti-war movement that doesn't care about either side's interests would be pushing for yet there are virtually no voices in the west discussing any variation of a plan like this.



The countries in light purple are countries that would involve particularly contentious negotiations, either because they are not former soviet countries which would still have to demilitarize their borders with Russia and vice versa or because there is risk of war and genocide in these countries due to extenuating circumstances.

Turkey and Armenia are a major problem because Turkey is perpetrating ethnic wars in Nagorno-Karabakh that could lead to a second Armenian genocide.

The Balkans have obvious ethnic conflicts that would need to be addressed somehow because Serbia is unlikely to enter any kind of military alliance with former Yugoslavian states while Kosovo is independent. And Kosovo should remain independent due to the risk of ethnic genocide of Armenians there if Serbia were to gain control over it. Serbia is a small country though and will likely yield to external pressure if both Russia and the United States pressure it consistently with the same demands.

Germany should both be included in the Non-Aligned Defense Pact because it would help anchor the pact with real military ability to defend itself alongside Poland and because it would make the CSTO losing Belarusian membership equitable. This peace treaty would have to be built on an expectation of equal reciprocation involving both sides demilitarizing their borders and both sides being willing to let go of their imperial interests. Something like this can never happen without major public pressure verging on revolution in both the United States and Russia. Neither nation will willingly back down for the betterment of world peace without something forcing them to as both countries have ulterior imperial motives in the region.

Edit: Kaliningrad should be light purple too. A Russian exclave inside the non-aligned pact is a bad idea. It should be made an independent country and join the pact too.

Also current EU and EEU members would not lose their membership under this proposal. Single market access would be maintained and countries within the pact would be able to freely choose their tariffs with either the EU or EEU. The only guarantee in the pact is immediate indefinite tariff free access to both economic pacts markets on the part of the EU and EEU should any participating country freely choose to access them.

If a non-aligned pact like this were able to maintain its integrity for a few generations perhaps further European integration could become possible one day? Maybe the EU and EEU could even merge and form a collective security treaty involving the total disbandment of both NATO and the CSTO? Unthinkable now, but a worthy long-term goal.

[firestar464]

Edit: Kaliningrad should be light purple too. A Russian exclave inside the non-aligned pact is a bad idea. It should be made an independent country and join the pact too.

will not happen

[weatheriscool]

Russia Has Suffered Staggeringly High Losses

https://politicalwire.com/2023/12/12/ru ... gh-losses/

"SNIP......

New York Times: “Since the beginning of the war Russia has suffered from a staggeringly high number of losses, according to another newly declassified assessment shared with Congress. At the start of the war the Russian army stood at 360,000 troops. Russia has lost 315,000 of those troops, forcing them to recruit and mobilize new recruits and convicts from their prison system.”

“Moscow’s equipment has also been crushed, according to the assessment. At the start of the war, Russia had 3,500 tanks but has lost 2,200, forcing them to pull 50 year old T-62 tanks from storage.”

..........SNIP

[weatheriscool]

U.S. intelligence assesses Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 casualties - source

These losses are almost 5.5 times the number of causalities the US suffered in several years of the Vietnam war


https://www.reuters.com/world/us-intell ... 023-12-12/

WASHINGTON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - A declassified U.S. intelligence report assessed that the Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 dead and injured troops, or nearly 90% of the personnel it had when the conflict began, a source familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday.

The report also assessed that Moscow's losses in personnel and armored vehicles to Ukraine's military have set back Russia’s military modernization by 18 years, the source said.....

The source said the recently declassified U.S. intelligence report assessed that Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 with 360,000 personnel.

Since then, the report found, 315,000 Russian troops, or about 87% of the total with which it started the war, have been killed or injured, the source said.....

"The scale of losses has forced Russia to take extraordinary measures to sustain its ability to fight. Russia declared a partial mobilization of 300,000 personnel in late 2022, and has relaxed standards to allow recruitment of convicts and older civilians," the assessment said,

according to the source.

[wjfox]

Hungary blocks €50bn of EU funding for Ukraine

1 minute ago

Hungary has blocked €50bn ($55bn; £43bn) in EU aid for Ukraine - just hours after an agreement was reached on starting membership talks.

"Summary of the nightshift: veto for the extra money to Ukraine," Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said after Thursday's talks in Brussels.

EU leaders said the aid negotiations would resume early next year.

Ukraine is critically dependent on EU and US funding as it continues to fight occupying Russian forces.

The aid blocking was announced by Mr Orban shortly after the EU leaders decided to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova and to grant candidate status to Georgia.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67724357

[caltrek]

Well, when Russia first invaded two years ago, I predicted that Ukraine would lose. Still, they have put up a far more effective defense than I expected. One wonders if there were missed opportunities for a negotiated settlement due to the frustration of having to concede territorial losses. Also, defeat now means loss of territory. Ukraine continues to exist as a country and Russia is a long way from changing that. Russia has also lost much in terms of soldier's lives. Material might be replaced by greater manufacturing effort, but lives cannot be so easily restored. There have also been a lot of folks emigrating out of Russia who did not want to become a part of that country's war effort.

What I came here to post:

Ukraine Situation Report: Troops Question Dnipro River Assault
by Howard Altman and Thomas Newdick
December 16, 2023

Introduction:

(The Drive) The Ukrainian fight to establish a foothold across the Dnipro River in Russian-held Kherson Oblast has been brutal and futile, troops involved in that mission told The New York Times.

With its counteroffensive in the south and east bogged down into a bloody stalemate, Ukraine has been pushing troops across the Dnipro. The hope is that with enough of a presence there, they can threaten the so-called land corridor to Crimea. Last month, Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs boasted about the advance of Ukrainian troops there and even Russian milbloggers have worried about that presence.

(See linked article below for Twitter feeds)

The troops interviewed by the Times, however, paint a dire view of that situation.

“Waves of Ukrainian troops have been struck down on the river banks or in the water, even before they reach the other side,” the publication reported after interviewing several troops involved in this effort. “Conditions are so difficult, a half-dozen men involved in the fighting said in interviews, that in most places, there is nowhere to dig in. The first approaches tend to be marshy islands threaded with rivulets or meadows that have become a quagmire of mud and bomb craters filled with water.”

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... -assault

[caltrek]

What happens in Ukraine If U.S. Aid Disappears?
by Joshua Keating
December 16, 2023

Introduction:

(Vox) For nearly two years, Ukraine has fought back against Russia’s invasion far more effectively and successfully than many expected. But whether it’s able to continue that resistance may depend on the results of a debate in Washington that has absolutely nothing to do with Ukraine. It’s a bizarre and uncomfortable situation for the embattled country and its leading advocates.

“In the hands of these senators and representatives is the future of Ukraine and the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians,” Daria Kaleniuk, a leading global campaigner for the Ukrainian cause and cofounder of the International Coalition for Ukrainian Victory, told Vox.

But such urgency is not in evidence on Capitol Hil, at least at the moment. Congress departed Washington for the year on Thursday without approving a new defense spending package that would include $61 billion in additional military funding for Ukraine. The Biden administration had proposed the aid as part of a larger package that also includes military assistance for Israel and Taiwan, humanitarian aid for several conflicts, and funding for border security.

Congressional Republicans have conditioned support for new Ukraine funding on concessions from the administration on immigration policy, which are strongly opposed by Democrats. That left President Joe Biden’s shifting his oft-stated pledge to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes” to “as long as we can” during a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House during the Ukrainian president’s disappointing visit to DC to drum up support this week.

It’s still very possible that an immigration deal will be reached that allows the Ukraine funding to go forward when Congress returns next month. Kaleniuk remains cautiously optimistic that the issue will be resolved somehow, saying, “I believe in the wisdom of the American people.”

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/world-politics/240 ... ss-borer

[caltrek]

This Is the World If Ukraine Loses
by Victor Pinchuk
December 13, 2023

Introduction:

(Politico) The White House has announced that by the end of the year funding for supporting Ukraine will run out. The EU has declared that it will miss by a large measure its announced goal of providing Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells by March 2024. These are sober words presaging what I believe will be a devastating failure for the West.

If Ukraine cannot push Russia back, there will not be a stable stalemate. Russia will throw all it has into “conquering” Ukraine. It will obliterate cities completely, as demonstrated by its conquest of Mariupol, where Russia is estimated to have killed 25,000 people and destroyed 90 percent of residential buildings. That is the Russian way of war. Russia’s army will imprison, torture or kill anyone who refuses to “belong” to Russia. Remember the Bucha massacre? Bucha had 37,000 inhabitants, compared to Ukraine’s 44 million. As Russia advances, 5, 10, 100 or more Buchas may occur.

Many more Ukrainians will flee if Russia is able to seize more Ukrainian territory. 6.3 million have fled the country as of now. Many work hard in their new place of residence, but European countries incur costs of hundreds of Euro per month for each Ukrainian refugee. Russia’s strategy includes making Ukraine uninhabitable, driving refugees into Europe. If for example 5 million more Ukrainians flee as Russia advances, it would cost Europe billions of Euro more per month additionally, dozens of billions of Euro per year.

Many Ukrainians will fight. Westerners learned on Feb. 24, 2022, that Ukrainians will risk their lives to remain free. Hundreds of thousands of battle-hardened women and men will be ready to take up a guerilla fight. They are inventive, with many highly educated engineers, inventors, IT specialists. If Russia counters with ever more brutal repression, this will trigger ever more severe guerilla fighting and more refugees.

Meanwhile Baltic states and Poland will be subject to Russian threats and its hybrid war. It worked out in Ukraine, will be the Kremlin’s logic. Moldova and Georgia could face military aggression.

Read more here: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine ... 00131638

[weatheriscool]

Nearly 350,000 Russian troops, 45,000 pieces of military equipment eliminated during invasion
https://www.yahoo.com/news/nearly-350-0 ... 00302.html

A further 1140 invaders have been eliminated in Ukraine over the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of enemy losses since the full-scale invasion began to 348,300 personnel.

More than 45,000 units of military equipment have also been destroyed, according to a Ukrainian General Staff report on Facebook on Dec. 19:

Read also:

Ukraine military fends off intense multi-front assault, reports 89 clashes on 6 Russian attack axes

Ukrainian troops face artillery shortages, scale back some operations - Tarnavskyi

Total Russian losses are now as follows:

Personnel: 348,300 (+1140)

Tanks: 5,798 (+15)

Armored combat vehicles: 10,771 (+19)

Artillery Systems: 8,190 (+15)

Multiple Launch Rocket Systems: 926 (+0)

Anti-Aircraft Missile Systems: 611 (+1)

Aircraft: 324 (+0)
Helicopters: 324 (+0)
Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs): 6,299 (+9)
Cruise Missiles: 1,611 (+1)
Ships / Boats: 22 (+0)
Submarines: 1 (+0)
Automotive equipment and tanks: 10,842 (+20)
Specialized Equipment: 1200 (+2).

[raklian]

The Su-34 is Russia's newest fighter jet.

[firestar464]

More on this by Newsweek:

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-lost-th ... ce-1854931

[firestar464]

Honestly, it sucks that the continued survival of humanity hinges on either Russians waking up and deposing Putin or the US House of Representatives extending aid. If neither happens I feel that the threat of nuclear war is going to significantly increase over the next three years.

And it sucks that the rest of the world, especially people living in democracies, can't do much about it

[raklian]

[weatheriscool]

Ukraine carries out air assault on Crimea's port of Feodosia

Source: Jerusalem Post

Footage posted on several Russian news outlets on Telegram showed powerful explosions and fires over a port area.

Ukraine carried out an air attack on Feodosia in Crimea, Ukraine's air force commander said on Tuesday, after the Russian-installed governor of the Crimea said that the assault sparked a fire in the town's port area.

The commander of Ukraine's air force, Mykola Oleshchuk, said on the Telegram messaging app, without providing evidence, that the attack destroyed a major Russian Navy vessel, the landing Novocherkask ship.

"And the fleet in Russia is getting smaller and smaller! Thanks to the Air Force pilots and everyone involved for the filigree work!" said Oleshchuk.

Read more: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-779548

[raklian]

Unverified for now.

[Certain Russian user]

I just came in to see if there was any reflection on the last few months. It seems no...

Nearly 350,000 Russian troops, 45,000 pieces of military equipment eliminated
A further 1140 invaders have been eliminated in Ukraine over the past 24 hours,

Above 1000 daily? I think that would make even Dr. Goebbels blush. Meanwhile, according to Ukrainian own sources:

- Mobilization is permanent, just to hold the line, AFU needs 20 thousand new soldiers monthly.
- Men are prohibited from leaving Ukraine.
- Panoramic photography in cemeteries is prohibited.
- The eligibility criteria for military service being constantly reduced.
- There are roadblocks set up right on the city streets. The military catches suitable men for "document checks" and they're never seen again.
- Male orphans aged 17-18 being "invited" for "conversation" with the military that "may" lead to military contract. Attendance for "conversation" is mandatory.
- Delivery of 120 thousand female body armor being planned.

And so on, and so forth... the last drop was recent bill for the mobilization of yet another 500 thousand people in 2024. Ukrainian social networks are really interesting to read nowadays. It seems even the most simple-minded audience of their "Telepanorama" began to realise: something goes not as planned. By the end of 2023, eventually, the Rainbow Pony of Illusions at full speed collided with Iron Arse of Reality:



=== === ===

Nevermind, thank you all for your posts, they were entertaining to read. I wish Happy New Year to all the friends of the Russian people, and let this year will bring the painful and humiliating death to all our enemies. Maybe we'll meet again at the end of 2024... Oh, and the last but not least:

Honestly, it sucks that the continued survival of humanity hinges on either Russians waking up and deposing Putin

No way. Not now. Putin and Putin only.

[firestar464]

https://disinfo.detector.media/en/post/ ... cemeteries I don't think so?

Also it's not surprising that a country is going to mobilize its people if it is being invaded. No shit.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/26/ukraine ... om-27.html A 2-year age reduction? Not the big deal you're making it out to be.

Male orphans aged 17-18 being "invited" for "conversation" with the military that "may" lead to military contract. Attendance for "conversation" is mandatory.

Bud, gonna need a source for that.

On the claim of body armor being imported for women:

The claim about the delivery of 120 thousand female body armors to Ukraine is not confirmed by the information available. However, it is known that Canada has announced to send an additional $25 million worth of protective equipment to Ukraine¹. This equipment includes body armor, helmets, gas masks, and night vision gear¹.

In addition, there have been initiatives led by the Ukrainian Armor manufacturer to supply Ukrainian female soldiers with modern anatomic armor designed to fit their bodies⁴. The manufacturer has demonstrated a bulletproof suit in Kyiv, which is lighter than the men's version, fits better on the female body, and is easier to take off³.

However, there is no specific mention of the quantity being 120 thousand or that these are specifically for pregnant women². Please note that the situation is dynamic, and the information might change. For the most accurate and up-to-date information, it's best to refer to official announcements or credible news sources.

Source: Conversation with Bing, 12/29/2023
(1) Canada to send an additional $25M worth of protective gear to Ukraine .... https://globalnews.ca/news/8649445/cana ... equipment/.
(2) ‘She needs armor.’ Female Ukrainian soldiers call for equality. https://kyivindependent.com/proving-our ... -equality/.
(3) Ukraine is rolling out a lighter, form-fitting body armor for women .... https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uk ... r-AA1gKe2H.
(4) Ukrainian body armor falsely linked to pregnant women | Fact check. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 993184007/.

I'm personally ignoring the Ukr General Staff's claims, as they'd probably be inflated. You might be right about that.

Also, what the hell is so amazing about Putin invading another country? And why do you speak of him like a god-emperor or something?

[weatheriscool]