Ukraine War Watch Thread

[ibm9000]

"The type of Russian missile that destroyed a Kyiv children’s hospital relies on western-designed components, according to experts and Ukrainian officials, showing the Kremlin’s success at evading sanctions."
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/foreign-af ... s/83428653

"However, in 2023, reports indicate that Russia's production surged to 420 AS-23 missiles annually, marking an eightfold increase since the sanctions began.
Notably, the AS-23 missile was used in the July 8th attack on Kyiv’s “Ohmatdyt” children’s hospital, drawing media attention to the increased production. Investigations revealed that Russian AS-23 missiles contained components from Switzerland, Taiwan, and the United States. Ukrainian experts have noted a shift toward using domestically produced electronics in Russian missiles, including the Kalibr, Kh-59, Kh-101, Iskander, and P-500."
https://caliber.az/en/post/253600/

(No idea how reliable is the second source).

I don't know how cheap/advanced Russian chips are, but that production has increased too and why shouldn't have the capacity to copy and replace with ersatz components after two years?

[ibm9000]

Russia against dialysis.

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/im ... =700&dpr=1
I cannot see any rational reason to waste (aim) one missile against that target.


Nothing from Sotnytskyi Kozachok, maybe it was just to try to trigger a reaction.

[wjfox]

Russia against dialysis.

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/im ... =700&dpr=1
I cannot see any rational reason to waste (aim) one missile against that target.


Nothing from Sotnytskyi Kozachok, maybe it was just to try to trigger a reaction.

If you're going to keep denying, downplaying, and propagandising these sorts of atrocities, then I think you've outstayed your welcome on this forum.

[ibm9000]

Russia against dialysis.
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/im ... =700&dpr=1
I cannot see any rational reason to waste (aim) one missile against that target.
Nothing from Sotnytskyi Kozachok, maybe it was just to try to trigger a reaction.

If you're going to keep denying, downplaying, and propagandising these sorts of atrocities, then I think you've outstayed your welcome on this forum.

I do not deny (actually, I provide a source confirming it is a Russian missile), I do not downplay (I affirm that a Russian missile hit an Ukrainian building in a hospital complex) and certainly, I don't use collateral damage as propaganda. (Who does?)

I state my incapacity to understand the use of an expensive missile on a no-value target. I just read that one reason for the use of the gliding FAB3000 could be, simply, that Russia has a certain amount of them. What is the point of keeping them in storage?
The Art of War is a rational art.

Edit:
Are we downplaying every other child killed in this war? Focusing on these ones is not doing that, correct? It is just focusing in the latest news.
Myself, I am more interested in "missiles", than in "atrocities".

[weatheriscool]

[Powers]

Wait really? With almost no battles?

[firestar464]

There's no proof, though the claim makes a lot of sense

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... ine-2024-7

[ibm9000]

Tristan Snell is a lawyer, wit a lot of imagination.

Crimea is a target, it makes sense to remove your assets from a target area. Russia concedes that Crimea is a target? Well, yes.

Ukraine's Navy is bombarding Rostov or Tuapse? Ukraine won what? Russian operations in the Black Sea are, logistically, more difficult. As every time RU hits a train, UKR operations are more difficult.

It follows madness, no just wild imagination. Next step? Through Krinkii or Robotine?

[caltrek]

More background on that from a historian's perspective:

How the Ukrainians – With No Navy – Defeated Russia’s Black Sea Fleet
by Brian Glyn Williams
July 19, 2024

Introduction:

(The Conversation) Since the Russian invasion began in 2022, Ukraine has successfully resisted its opponents on many fronts, but its most surprising success came in a theater where few expected Ukraine to prevail: the Black Sea.

In 2022, the consensus among military analysts was that Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s military would most likely crush Ukrainian forces in the air, on land and at sea. With a vast infusion of financial assistance and weapons from the U.S. and Western nations, Ukraine has, however, fought Russia to a standstill on land. On the sea, the Ukrainians have had greater success and have launched a revolution in weapons and tactics that offer both lessons and warnings for the world’s navies.

When Moscow’s invasion began, Ukraine’s only warship was a Soviet-era frigate that had to be scuttled in the Ukrainian port of Mykolaiv to prevent it from falling into Russian hands. Unchallenged on the seas, the Russian navy rained ballistic missiles down on Ukrainian cities, provided protection for military aircraft, blockaded Ukrainian ports and was preparing to launch an amphibious attack on Ukraine’s largest port, Odesa.

But, deploying a series of new tactics and weapons in what became known as the Battle of the Black Sea, the Ukrainians have been able to destroy 26 Russian vessels since the start of the war and force Russia’s powerful Black Sea Fleet to flee hundreds of miles to a safer harbor. This historic success offers a lesson in how weaker powers can take advantage of innovative thinking and new technology to defeat more powerful opponents.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/how-the-uk ... et-234259

[wjfox]

[ibm9000]

“It doesn’t mean that all territories are won back by force. I think the power of diplomacy can help,” he said, adding that a weaker Russia on the battlefield would put Ukraine in a stronger position on the negotiating table. “By putting pressure on Russia, I think it is possible to agree to a diplomatic settlement.”
Zelensky to the BBC.

We all can read the meaning of that statement in different ways. Ukraine won the war, Ukraine is winning the war, Ukraine will win the war, is not one of them.

Could that statement had been made after the Ukrainian summer offensive? Let's see how long before acting on those words, "if".

[ibm9000]

"I know we will win."
Syrskyi to theguardian.

“When it comes to equipment, there is a ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 in their favour,” he said. Since 2022 the number of Russian tanks has “doubled” – from 1,700 to 3,500. Artillery systems have tripled, and armoured personnel carriers gone up from 4,500 to 8,900. “The enemy has a significant advantage in force and resources,” Syrskyi said.
By way of example, he cited Russia’s latest attempt to seize Kharkiv and the neighbouring province of Sumy. “It failed,” Syrskyi said. (The what! The attempt to dilute the not so ample Ukrainian resources with another active front?)
He described Russia’s creeping victories as “tactical” ones – local gains rather than an “operational” breakthrough, such as the capture of a major city. (He is describing the summer, Ukrainian, offensive.)
One of Syrskyi’s most pressing challenges is to find new recruits to replace Ukrainian soldiers who have been killed and injured. Those fighting in trenches are exhausted. The patriotic fervour that led many in spring 2022 to volunteer has worn off. The government recently reduced the conscription age from 27 to 25. Last week a new law came into effect requiring men to register their details with military recruitment centres. Many have done so. Others are hiding.
...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/artic ... nst-russia

I cannot call it wishful thinking, he is in the services. Maybe a counter statement to Zelensky's?


Off topic.
Anyway, forget about your mortgage, in 3 years WW3 (Taiwan), but stop worrying and learn to love the British Army. Triplicating its numbers everything will be just fine.
Gen Roly Walker, BA CiC, to the BBC.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c035d05je2jo

[ibm9000]

A couple of days ago I started reading about Pokrovsk, "an advance of 6km", "Pokrovsk will fall in 2, 3 weeks..." I think we have another case of wild imagination, about Russia this time.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mi ... 26196&z=11
Looking at the map, Russia needs at least 2 "Ocheretinos" more (a sudden, local collapse), Hrodivka and Novohrodivka; probably two more too, Selidove and Mirnohrad.
Maybe there are no strong, prepared positions, but every village is a position and each town is a strong position; if Ukraine has enough troops in the area. I also read some complaints about inefficient Ukrainian EW/drones and not every unit up to the task.
(To provide some context, like the British in North Africa in WW2, attacking the Italians to get the Germans into trouble).


So far, only Kiev "confirms" Russia "droning" Romania. Ukraine's AD could send those drones (or missiles) "not on target".

[Time_Traveller]

Ukraine-Russia latest: Blow for Putin’s forces as Crimea airfield hit and Russia drone debris found in Romania

1 hour ago

Ukraine said today its missile forces carried out a strike on a Russian military airfield in Crimea that has been used for long-range attacks against it, the latest in a series of blows to the Russian military on the occupied peninsula.

The Ukrainian military’s general staff said in a statement that Russia‘s Saky airfield in western Crimea was the latest target to be struck and that it was assessing the aftermath.

“This is one of the operational airfields that Russia uses to control the airspace, in particular the Black Sea, and for launching airstrikes on Ukrainian territory,” it said.

It comes as Romania has confirmed that fragments of a Russian drone entered its territory, one day after Russia targeted Ukraine with a bombardment of 38 long-range drones.

Ukraine’s Air Force said three of the drones “were lost after crossing the state border with Romania”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 86236.html

[ibm9000]

Russia across the canal at Chasiv Iar.

I was looking at one of those "human wave" attacks: one squad and one BTR clearing one trench, with hand grenades.

[ibm9000]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that Russia had used more than 600 guided aerial bombs to attack his country in the past week.
"Russian combat aviation must be destroyed wherever it is, by all effective means. It is also quite fair to strike at Russian airfields. And we need this joint solution with our partners - a security solution," Zelenskiy said in a social media post.

Yes, it is a war, the enemy will try to hit you with what they have. It is not your "partners" war, it is your war.

[caltrek]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that Russia had used more than 600 guided aerial bombs to attack his country in the past week.
"Russian combat aviation must be destroyed wherever it is, by all effective means. It is also quite fair to strike at Russian airfields. And we need this joint solution with our partners - a security solution," Zelenskiy said in a social media post.

Yes, it is a war, the enemy will try to hit you with what they have. It is not your "partners" war, it is your war.

Ukraine has partners, whether you like it or not. Once again, you have adopted a line that Putin would want the rest of the world to adopt.

[ibm9000]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that Russia had used more than 600 guided aerial bombs to attack his country in the past week.
"Russian combat aviation must be destroyed wherever it is, by all effective means. It is also quite fair to strike at Russian airfields. And we need this joint solution with our partners - a security solution," Zelenskiy said in a social media post.
Yes, it is a war, the enemy will try to hit you with what they have. It is not your "partners" war, it is your war.

Ukraine has partners, whether you like it or not. Once again, you have adopted a line that Putin would want the rest of the world to adopt.

It is not their war. "Once again, you have adopted a line that" shows some "creativity.

[ibm9000]

Ukraine claims to have sunk a submarine.

Russia cannot claim to sink a submarine or any other Ukrainian vessel, none left; maybe killing an admiral? Ukraine is hitting airbases and fuel depots, what Russia is doing and has been doing; Russia has more missiles and more aircraft.
Ukraine is not going to retake Ocheretino with that claim (or in some days, fact).

Ukraine is losing Leopard 1 in the combat zone, probably because Russia is running out of tanks. Both sides are using T-64, T-72 and every kind of front line improvisations, but Ukraine is not running out of PR.


LONDON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - S&P Global cut Ukraine's credit rating to 'selective' default on Friday, after the war-torn country missed an international bond payment this week as it puts the finishing touches on major debt restructuring.
While the $34 million payment is still in its 'grace period', S&P said there was little chance it would be made considering Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has now signed a law allowing debt payments to stop while it completes its restructuring.

[ibm9000]

You did it first!

Yes, I know, it is a technicality. Still, the fact is that it is an criminal an illegal invasion. We are with the invaded country, are we not? Ukraine did not declare war on Russia (Russia did not declare war on Ukraine), Russia has an honest casus belli against Ukraine. What is the morale standard here? Is this a "good" invasion? There is already a conflict, but if Ukraine can take whatever actions it deems necessary, the same "rule" should apply to Russia, correct? What concept is that of "illegal invasion"?

Raid, attack or offensive?
First I read about one battalion, now I am reading about elements of three brigades. Is Russia going to use the Russian (conscript) Army to defend the mother country (from a military point of view certainly should) against this invasion of the sacred soil of the motherland?
Now, what is the purpose of that operation? A publicity stunt? Is Ukraine (Hamas?) killing civilians for a publicity stunt? A manoeuvre of distraction? Ukraine, losing ground, has that many reserves? Is Ukraine, creating another active front, going to defend that area? It will have to move AD to that zone, create LOC, organize the rotation of troops and bring the materials and equipment to build defences; something it hasn't been that good at doing in some areas in Ukraine.

Could Russia use one or two nuclear tactical weapons in the rear (Ukraine) area of this invasion to defend the country? No, I don't think it's going to happen; even if it makes a lot of sense.
Mind, from a military point of view, as Russia has been invade by the Ukrainian Army, it is a quick and efficient way to stabilize the situation; again, Russia is defending its country against a foreign invasion.