Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Time_Traveller]

Russia-Ukraine war live: key bridges destroyed in Kursk as Ukraine ‘leaves trail of destruction’

16 August 2024



Ukraine has destroyed a strategically important bridge over the river Seym, as it continues its incursion into Russia's Kursk region.

Russian officials have been quoted as saying the operation near the town of Glushkovo has cut off part of the local district.

The bridge was used by the Kremlin to supply its troops and its destruction could hamper their efforts.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian troops were strengthening their positions in Kursk, and called the captured territories an exchange fund, implying they could be swapped for Ukrainian regions occupied by Moscow.

Now in its second week, this is Ukraine's deepest incursion into Russia since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion more than two years ago.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c628gk68p3po

[ibm9000]

An "exchange fund" that keeps losing territory/funds doesn't look like such a good investment.
The same thing about prisoners, UKR has to capture a lot more prisoners to try to get even; UKR keeps losing prisoners. The point is that UKR already lost a lot more prisoners than Russia.

[Time_Traveller]

Ukraine hopes its incursion into Russia changes outcome of war

1 hour ago

“All wars end with negotiations. It’s not the soldiers in the trenches who decide when.”

Arni joined the Ukrainian army in 2022 to fight for his country’s survival. When we bump into him 30 months later, he describes a new motivation. “Peace.”

“No-one likes war, we want to finish it,” he says while leaning against his camouflaged pick-up truck.

For the troops we encounter close to Russia’s border, there’s a desire to end Russia’s invasion on acceptable terms.

That is not to say survival isn’t a core driver - it is - but they seem to be striving for a finish line.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8lzyjprymo

[ibm9000]

An attack of hope?

If the main purpose was to divert, the attack already failed. UKR is taking and losing prisoners and lost 4 HIMARS; I just read. UKR got 1.000sqkm, how many does it need to bargain? Is this just a hail mary to reach the negotiating table? A better Krinky?
"In a symmetric war, we have no chances with Russia,” points out Alina Frovola. (BBC).
Let's keep ruining UKR and hope for a good hail mary then? What else does UKR have but a "symmetric war"?
Zelenskyi mention something about "maximum damage", probably no the best choosing of words when you are and you will be at the receiving end; not him.
The narrative has changed, the reality hasn't.

[ibm9000]

Estonia said that RU does not have enough troops for a counterattack in Kursk yet, but UKR seems to get more failed attacks now.

RU just hit another UKR air base, I was looking at a RU AFV destroying an enemy column. Anyone has counted how many bridges have been destroyed in this war? How many bridges UKR has lost?
The same things happening to both sides, but carefully pointing them out as "significant" when UKR is doing it; unless it's killing civilians or hitting civilian cars with drones.
RU keeps advancing in Ukraine, what is UKR going to gain in Russia? At what cost?
Hope? Then, what about after hope?

[caltrek]

The Invasion of Ukraine and European Attitudes
August 20, 2024

Entire article:

(Eurekalert) An ongoing survey captures how the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected attitudes in European countries not directly involved in the conflict. Margaryta Klymak and Tim Vlandas examine how the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected economic and political attitudes in eight European countries. The authors took advantage of the timing of the European Social Survey (ESS), which happened to be administered both just before and just after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 in eight countries: Switzerland, Greece, Italy, Montenegro, Macedonia, Netherlands, Norway, and Portugal. Overall, the invasion increased support for democracy, income redistribution, and the European Union, whereas the invasion reduced authoritarian and anti-immigration attitudes. Some attitudes shifted immediately after the invasion, while others took about a month to change. The authors suggest that the sudden sense of external threat as well as the economic and migration consequences of the war drove these short and medium-term shifts. According to the authors, the study adds to the understanding of how conflicts shape attitudes by capturing attitudinal shifts in non-belligerent countries. In this case, the war led survey respondents to rally around a common European identity and democratic values.

Source: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1054920

[caltrek]

Thousands Of Russian Troops In Kursk Likely Trapped By Blown Bridges
by Howard Altman
August 20, 2024

Introduction:

(The Drive) Thousands of Russian troops are bogged down on the south side of the Seim River in Russia’s Kursk Oblast because Ukraine blew up the three bridges crossing it, a source with direct knowledge of the situation told The War Zone on Tuesday, the 15th day of the invasion.

“There are about 3,000 Russian troops there,” the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. The Russians have little room to maneuver because the Seim River snakes around that part of Kursk Oblast to the Ukrainian border and Ukrainian troops are pushing to the west toward Glushkovo. As we mentioned yesterday, it is part of an effort to create a border buffer zone.

“They will not fight,” the source said of the Russian forces there outside of the border village of Tetkino. “Most of them are inexperienced and demotivated.”

Ukraine is also attempting to push eastward through that part of Kursk by taking Tetkino, the source added. The goal is to trap Russian troops in a pincer. Though under constant bombardment, Tetkino remains in Russian hands.

His estimate on Russian troop levels there aligns with earlier reporting by Germany’s Bild news outlet on Telegram Tuesday.

The article goes on to further discuss these actions by Urkaine as well as Russian military activity. Altogether an “eleven minute read”.

Read more here: https://www.twz.com/news-features/thou ... n-bridges

[ibm9000]

Ukraine blew up 3 bridges and (it seems) Russia 2 more. Should we compare what Russia has south of the Dnieper and what Ukraine could have south of the Seym river? Pulling back, slowly, seems the best tactical option.

Zelensky is complaining about getting permission to use weapons in his invasion of Russia. The point is that he needs a permit because he owns no weapons or not many of them.

[ibm9000]

First, Russia is still advancing in Ukraine.

I am a bit confused about Putin's reaction. It (Kursk) is a "terrorist situation" instead of declaring war after being invaded; I guess Zelensky is carrying out his own SMO instead of a "criminal and illegal invasion.
Zelensky can sell the narrative of... Well, not quite sure of what, not "winning", that's for sure. Putin doesn't want to sell the narrative that this is serious business, I don't know why. It's not that we (the West) don't sell fantasies, but War doesn't mean full mobilization nor sending everything there; just that it is serious. Who, even in Russia, doesn't know that yet?
I am also confused about Zelensky, activating another front. He failed at Robotyne, where are those 10 brigades? He is gaining ground and losing ground, how many generals is he going to convince that he can win the war(?) (achieve what?) with this operation?
Carrying the war to Africa, hoping to be another Scipio?

[ibm9000]

It seems that one of those "destroyed" bridges was just damaged; we still don't know how limited the traffic is.

If you look at Novohrodivka (Prokovsk), there are a lot of tall buildings, but Russia already has more than a foothold there. Maybe the defenders are in Kursk?

[ibm9000]

“Russian terrorists have once again targeted energy infrastructure,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal wrote on Telegram earlier on Monday.
CNN.

As Ukraine is hitting Russian infrastructure, he is saying that Ukraine is... a bunch of terrorists, correct?

(A food warehouse, a machine tool plant, 3.000 miles from the front line is a legitimate military objective as a pillbox is.
J. Landis, US Office of Civilian Defence 1943.)

[ibm9000]

I am going to guess that we can say that Ukraine was responsible for the terrorist attack against the Nord-Stream, a terrorist attack against western (EU at least) interests, but I am going to guess that we are happy with that terrorist attack.

I have been reading about a new Ukrainian super-drone, a poor's man cruise missile it has been called.Why cannot Russia, already making cruise missiles, build those drones?; more drones than Ukraine actually.

[Vakanai]

Okay, even having put ibm on Ignore so I can't read his messages, it is a little annoying seeing this thread updated, clicking it, and seeing it's just him bumping the thread again (with what I can imagine is more pro-Putin anti-Ukraine crap). Is there a better feature than ignore so I'll only notice this thread's been updated when someone else has posted? I mean he's been the sole poster 5 times in a row now.

[firestar464]

https://www.phpbb.com/community/viewtop ... #p15821881

Wjfox perhaps this could be implemented?

[ibm9000]

Maybe someone can post great news for Ukraine, I cannot; reality disagrees.

We can easily read that UKR controls (or drove through) 1.200 (1.3) RU sqkm.
You have to Search to find out that RU occupies (behind the front line) ~120.000 UKR sqkm.

[ibm9000]

Next month, Zelensky said he would present a four-part plan for victory to U.S. President Joe Biden, as well as candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
“One part of that is already done is Kursk,”
(The fall of Prokovsk?)
he told reporters. “Another part is a strategic place of Ukraine in the world security infrastructure.
(The place of a ruined non-nuclear nation?)
The third part is enforcement – a powerful push to force Russia to end the war with diplomatic means.
(Not his push, he has to get someone else to settle the issue.)
The fourth part is economical. I can’t talk to all of it.”
(Give me more money or I will not survive; and pay for the repairs.)

Well, I have to laugh before that statement... As every one is laughing at Russian statements.

[ibm9000]

Zelensky has divined Ukraine’s moment is now, and that after November there is a 50% chance Trump will impose an unpleasant peace, or that NATO cohesion will slowly erode, or that he will struggle to fill his own trenches with willing Ukrainian soldiers. And in the weeks ahead, he is willing to leave huge swaths of territory vulnerable, as well as cross every one of Russia’s red lines – once hallowed yet now shifting daily – in the pursuit of a point at which Moscow breaks and decides to yield. He must hope the pressure is being felt as acutely by Putin.
CNN.

He hopes. The "pressure" (Zelensky feels no pressure at all), after three weeks, is evident to the rest of the world. I wonder if it's all just about US elections, it must be clear to Zelensky that without US, disaster is certain.
I cannot see how, that is a winning strategy.

[wjfox]

Wjfox perhaps this could be implemented?

No, but I found a simpler solution, which only required a couple of mouse clicks. You won't be hearing from him again.

[Powers]

Legend: Administrators, Global moderators, hal9000

[firestar464]

Wjfox perhaps this could be implemented?

No, but I found a simpler solution, which only required a couple of mouse clicks. You won't be hearing from him again.