Sino-American Cold War Watch Thread

[caltrek]

China Changes Its Tune
by Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian
November 18, 2023

Introduction:

(Axios) Chinese leader Xi Jinping adopted a more conciliatory tone this past week during his visit to San Francisco, the culmination of a year-long trend away from harsh rhetoric from top Chinese officials.

Why it matters: The meeting this week between President Biden and Xi may mark the beginning of a period of relative calm in the U.S.-China relationship, but fundamental divisions between the two countries means the detente may not last, analysts tell Axios.

What's happening: Xi's remarks at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, both in public and in his meeting with Biden, were less critical and nationalistic than at times in the past.

• Chinese state media changed its tune as well, pumping out articles all week that praised U.S.-China people-to-people ties.

• Xi's remarks at a dinner with American CEOs were particularly warm. He repeatedly highlighted the benefits of economic cooperation, and suggested China might send more pandas to the U.S. — a line which got a round of applause from the audience.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2023/11/18/china ... rhetoric

[caltrek]

Don’t be Fooled by Biden and Xi Talks − China and the U.S. are Enduring Rivals Rather than Engaged Partners
by Michael Beckley
November 17, 2023

Introduction:

(The Conversation) There were smiles for the camera, handshakes, warm words and the unveiling of a couple of agreements.

But beyond the optics of the first meeting in over a year between the leaders of the world’s two biggest economies, not an awful lot had changed: There was nothing to suggest a “reset” in U.S. and China relations that in recent years have been rooted in suspicion and competition.

President Joe Biden hinted as much just hours after the face-to-face talks, confirming that he still considered his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, a “dictator.” Beijing hit back, with foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning telling reporters Biden’s remark was “extremely wrong and irresponsible political manipulation.”

As a scholar of U.S.-China relations, I believe the relationship between the two countries can be best described as an “enduring rivalry” – a term used by political scientists to denote two powers that have singled each other out for intense security competition. Examples from history include India and Pakistan, France and England, and the West and the Soviet Union. Over the past two centuries, such rivals have accounted for only 1% of the world’s international relationships but 80% of its wars. History suggest these rivalries last around 40 years and end only when one side loses the ability to compete – or when the two sides ally against a common enemy. Neither scenario looks likely any time soon in regards to China and the U.S.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/dont-be-fo ... s-217978

[caltrek]

Comparing How the West and China Offer Loans to Developing Countries
by John P. Ruehl
November 18, 2023

Introduction:

(Scoop World) In October 2023, amid celebrations commemorating the 10th anniversary of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Beijing, Pakistan and Chinese leaders signed a multibillion-dollar deal for a railway project. As a pivotal component of China’s efforts to promote economic integration and develop infrastructure abroad, Pakistan has received significant developmental assistance from Beijing through the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Nevertheless, Western nations and financial entities have also been strategically maneuvering in Asia, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approving a $3 billion loan for Pakistan in July, “saving it from defaulting on debt.” Other countries in the region are experiencing similar competition. Bangladesh, for instance, inaugurated the BRI-linked Padma Bridge Rail Link in October, and weeks later received a $395 million loan from the EU. That month, Sri Lanka struck a debt deal with China, while the U.S. extended a $553 million loan for port construction in Colombo in early November.

As competition over infrastructure and investment has grown in recent years, standoffs between Western and Chinese lenders over debt restructuring and relief have intensified. Lenders hesitate to offer relief packages, fearing that one creditor’s concession might allow a debtor country to use that relief money to pay off others. These impasses underscore the challenges being faced by the decades-old Western-dominated financial system and lending initiatives.

The foundation of this system was laid at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944. The meeting established the IMF to ensure stability of the international monetary system and offer policy advice and financial assistance to countries in economic crisis. It has since grown and comprises 190 member states, while its “sister organization,” the World Bank, was created simultaneously and has grown to include 189 member countries. The World Bank focuses more on long-term assistance through loans and grants, supporting infrastructure and poverty reduction in developing countries.

Read more here: https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO2311 ... ries.htm

[caltrek]

Questions Galore over Xi’s U.S. Visit
by Kalpit A Mankikar
November 25, 2023

Introduction:

(Observer Research Foundation) Whatever may be the imperfections of the Chinese leadership, one aspect they deliver upon is to spring a surprise when least expected. In 1955, Chairman Mao Zedong was secretly conferring with the United States (US) at a time when China supported the fraternal North Vietnamese regime in fighting their southern compatriots who had aligned with the US. After the Tiananmen Square Incident in 1989, when the general belief was that economic reforms in China had been grounded, Deng Xiaoping hit the road with his ‘Southern Tour’, which unambiguously drove home the point that China was back in business. In the same league lies Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to the US for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit over which there was intense speculation until the last minute.

This is Xi’s first journey to the US post the pandemic, and it comes amid tensions over trade, intensifying technological contestation, tensions in the South China Sea and over Taiwan. The summit between US President Joe Biden and Xi, on 15 November, builds on the need felt by the American establishment to construct “guardrails” in their relationship so that their contest does not degenerate into conflict. This is borne by the beliefs that economic uncertainties at home will temper China’s aggression abroad and that an engaged China, rather than an estranged one, will help in untangling intractable international disputes.

Beijing perhaps feels the need to re-engage with the US, which has been trying to reduce its economic interdependence. Having wagered his political capital on securing an unprecedented third term in high office, Xi’s continuance rests on his ability to deliver a strong and prosperous China by 2049.

Conclusion:

The Biden-Xi summit was preceded by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to Beijing in a bid to mend strained ties. Japanese PM Fumio Kishida has also met Xi, pledging to improve bilateral ties and announcing new talks on trade. Plans are afoot to resume the China-Japan-South Korea trilateral. India will have to keep an eye out for how its Quad partners hedge their bets with respect to China.

Read more here: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak ... us-visit

[caltrek]

Stop Doing Business with China, Religious Freedom Watchdog Group Urges
by Jeff Brumley
December 6, 2023

Introduction:

(Baptist News Global) A federal agency that monitors worldwide religious freedom has rebuked American companies for continuing to trade with China despite the nation’s glaring violations of religious and human rights.

“The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom strongly condemns U.S. corporations for continuing to conduct business in China while ignoring the country’s ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang (Province) — including mass extralegal detention, forced labor and sexual violence — and egregious religious freedom violations against Uyghur and other Muslims, underground Catholics, house church protestants, Falun Gong practitioners, and many others.”

That quote is from a statement released by USCIRF shortly after President Joe Biden’s Nov. 15 meeting with Chinese President Ji Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in San Francisco.

“The two leaders held a candid and constructive discussion on a range of bilateral and global issues including areas of potential cooperation and exchanged views on areas of difference,” according to a White House summary of the meeting.

The president emphazed the universality of human rights and the imperative of all countries to respect and defend those rights, the White House said. Biden also raised objections to China’s violation of human rights in Tibet, Hong Kong and other regions.

Read more here: https://baptistnews.com/article/stop-d ... -urges/

[caltrek]

Kishida-Xi Meeting: A Move to Reduce Frictions?
by Dr. Sandip Kumar Mishra
December 15, 2023

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) At the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in San Francisco in November, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan and President Xi Jinping of China held a sixty-five minute long meeting. Although the meeting didn’t suggest any substantial progress on contentious bilateral issues, both countries announced their commitment to a “strategic relationship of mutual benefit” and a high-level bilateral dialogue on economic issues. In a way, the meeting could appear “pointless,” but in fact its significance is more than what meets the eye.

The immediate background to the meeting is that China is looking for more Japanese business to help address its sluggish economy, and Japan’s immediate priority is to have China lifts the ban on Japanese seafood, which was imposed in August 2023. The blanket ban was imposed after the Japanese decision to release radioactive water from the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant into the Pacific Ocean, which badly hit Japanese seafood exports to China. Its other priority is to resolve the issue of several Japanese businesspersons who are detained, investigated, or convicted in China. Since late 2014, around 17 Japanese nationals have been detained in China under the Chinese espionage law, and another five cases are pending investigation and conviction. Unfortunately, Beijing didn’t offer assurances to Tokyo on either issue. Further, according to reports, Japan also raised other issues such as Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute; Chinese activities in the East China Sea and South China Sea; Taiwan; and human rights in Xinjiang and Hong Kong; however, none of these were discussed in detail.

Can this meeting still be called a success? Four aspects say yes.

Further extract:

The first important thing is that both leaders decided to meet in-person after almost a year…

The second important aspect of this meeting is the culmination of a shared interest between the two sides on addressing bilateral tensions…

Third, this was the first meeting to take place at the highest levels of leadership, after the revision of Japan’s National Security Strategy (NSS0 in December 2022…

Fourth, bilateral economic tensions has hurt both countries…

Finally, the meeting should be seen in the context of US-China relations changing gears.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/15122023 ... nalysis/

[caltrek]

If the U.S. did try to disengage from a Cold War type confrontation mode with China, consequences could occur (the specifics of which would depend upon circumstances). It could leave a void that others will feel compelled to fill.


Eyeing "if Trump" Scenario, Japan Must Commit to Its Own Defense
by Keita Nakamura
December 31, 2023

Introduction:

(Kyodo News) The year 2024 will see key elections in a number of large and geopolitically significant polities such as Russia, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Taiwan, but the U.S. presidential race will have by far the biggest impact on Japanese policymakers.

If Donald Trump, the outspoken former U.S. president who had little interest in prioritizing security alliances during his tenure, returns to the White House, Japan could be forced to deal with a militarily emboldened China and North Korea, with reduced U.S. engagement in the region, experts in diplomacy and security believe.

Against the backdrop of a potential weakening of the U.S. role in containing China's military rise and a buoyed North Korea operating with fewer inhibitions in a multipolar world order, Tokyo will face greater pressure to demonstrate the benefits of Japan-U.S. security ties, while understanding it is more important than ever to bolster its defense capabilities, the experts added.

Prospects are growing that incumbent Democrat President Joe Biden and Trump will face off at the Nov. 5 election in a rematch of the 2020 race, with the latter maintaining a comfortable lead in media polls for the Republican primary vote.

"If Mr. Trump becomes the president, he would return to his 'America first' policies and pursue them more vigorously by forming his administration only with his supporters," said Tetsuo Kotani, an international security expert at Meikai University.

Read more here: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/202 ... ense.html

[caltrek]

U.S.-Chinese Military Talks Resume on Safety in the Air and at Sea After a Nearly 2-year Break
by Lolita C. Baldor
April 5, 2024

Introduction:

(ABC News) WASHINGTON -- For the first time in nearly two years, U.S. and Chinese defense officials met this week to discuss unsafe and aggressive ship and aircraft incidents between the two militaries in the Pacific region, restarting a dialogue that Beijing abruptly ended in a dispute involving Taiwan.

The meeting, which was Wednesday and Thursday in Hawaii, came as Washington and Beijing work to expand communications between the two world powers and ease escalating tensions. Military-to-military contact had stalled in August 2022, when Beijing suspended all such communication after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the self-governing island China claims as its own.

The thaw in relations between the two countries got a kick-start last November when U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. About a month later, Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke with his Chinese counterpart in a video call — in the first senior military-to-military contact since the Pelosi visit.

Other top-level talks have continued, including a call earlier this week between Biden and Xi, and a visit to China by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that began on Thursday.

The resurgence of senior military leader discussions includes the relaunch of routine engagements, including the China-U.S. Military Maritime Consultative Agreement meeting, which was this week in Hawaii, and the bilateral Defense Policy Coordination Talks, which were held earlier this year.

Read more here: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us ... 108890061

[caltrek]

It is sad to see the growing militarization of Taiwanese society. Still, it should be understood as a response to the neo-imperial adventurist saber-rattling of the Communist mainland government.

[Powers]

It is sad to see the growing militarization of Taiwanese society. Still, it should be understood as a response to the neo-imperial adventurist saber-rattling of the Communist mainland government.

The world is a sad place for the most part.

[caltrek]

The Return of Protectionism: The Impact of the Sino-U.S. Trade War
November 13, 2024

Introduction:

(Eurekalert) Since 2018, Sino-US economic and trade relations have become increasingly tense. Between 2018 and 2019, the US imposed seven rounds of tariffs on China, to which China responded with retaliatory measures. The simple average tariff rates on US imports from China rose from 4.07% in January 2018 to 24.43% in December 2019, while the simple average tariff rates on Chinese imports from the US increased from 9.32% in January 2018 to 22.53% in December 2019 (see figure 1 in linked article).

Consequently, the share of Chinese goods in US imports declined significantly — from a peak of 21.6% in 2017 to 14% in 2023. As the world's two largest economies, the trade conflict between the US and China is expected to have far-reaching implications not only for their trade and welfare, but also for the global economy.

In a recent review article published in the KeAi journal China Economic Quarterly International, two researchers in China reported an overview of the Sino-US trade war, analyzing its background, evolution and effects on the global economy.

“Existing literature indicates that the Sino-US trade war has resulted in significant welfare losses for both countries, with surprisingly little impact on employment,” says co-author Hong Ma from Tsinghua University. “Specifically, the additional tariffs imposed by the US on China have neither effectively addressed trade imbalances nor brought manufacturing jobs back onshore.”

The study also examined the reshaping of global supply chains resulting from the Sino-US trade conflict. “The ongoing trade tensions between China and the US have revealed vulnerabilities in the global supply chain and intensified the trend toward regionalized production networks,” shares co-author Jingxin Ning from University of International Business and Economics. “Interestingly, although China's share in US imports has fallen dramatically since the outbreak of the Sino-US trade war, in terms of value-added imports, the US' dependence on China's products has actually increased.”

Read more of the Eurekalert article here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1064828

For the cited article from the China Economic Quarterly International: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 124000443

[caltrek]

The US Advances Its Dystopian Plan to Destroy China
By Megan Russell
August 1, 2025

Introduction:

(Common Cause) Imagine: It’s the summer of 2025, and the United States has been surrounded by foreign military bases. The bases have been built by some antagonistic country on the other side of the world that drones on about the inevitability of war. Leaders of the nation pump billions into their military, drumming up advanced AI weaponry, building long-range ballistic missile systems targeting the most populated U.S. cities, and sending thousands of troops to the Caribbean in preparation. Large-scale war games are held throughout the region, including drills that simulate nuclear war on the U.S. In the next two years, they say. War is coming, and we need to be ready. Meanwhile, back on domestic soil, the nation’s top thinkers gather to plan the collapse of the U.S. government, releasing a 120-page document outlining the steps to take after the war leaves nothing but dust and instability behind.

But wait. You don’t need to imagine. That is happening, just not to the United States. No, the U.S. is not the victim at all—the U.S. is the antagonistic country on the other side of the world, bloating its military, prepping for war, and outlining the collapse of another nation’s government.
The U.S. has built over 300 military bases in the Asia Pacific alone, installed long-range missile systems pointed at China’s largest cities, and held joint war exercises with regional allies simulating nuclear war with China. And just last week, the federally funded Hudson Institute released its 128-page plan for the collapse of China’s government.

Western media tells you that China is the most aggressive nation on Earth, but China has shown extreme restraint in the face of U.S. military buildup and hostile rhetoric calling for war. If the opposite were true—if China had surrounded the U.S. with missiles, troops, and bases—the U.S. would have already considered that an act of war. Just think back to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when the installation of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba almost led to the U.S. declaring full-scale nuclear war.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/u-s-war-china

caltrek’s comment: While the article makes some good points, it ignores China’s saber rattling over Taiwan. “(W)hile China hasn’t intervened in any country for 50 years” it did obliterate democracy in Hong Kong. It has also engaged in an aggressive undermining of cyber security (see this article in The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-0 ... t-heading ).

All of this suggests to me that there may be benefits to enhanced negotiations provided both sides can recognize the legitimate security concerns of the other side.

[firestar464]

The US is mostly nuts over world domination because GWOT+Cold War mentality while the PRC just wants to make money for the most part; thus they're more subtle about their domination efforts. They basically bought Africa, for one. Less about basing and more about business deals

[firestar464]

China’s New Rare Earth and Magnet Restrictions Threaten U.S. Defense Supply Chains

https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-ne ... ply-chains

the US is so cooked lol

[firestar464]

China's economic growth slows as trade tensions with US flare up

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... r-AA1ONb9h

[firestar464]

US Considers Broad Software Curbs on China, White House Says

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/us ... r-AA1OZwbt