China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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Yuli Ban
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

Post by Yuli Ban »

Bluster. I doubt China will attempt anything any time soon.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
Tadasuke
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

Post by Tadasuke »

I am convinced that after seeing how the developed and civilized world treats Russia after their attack on Ukraine, China will not attack Taiwan. Even if they took TSMC, The West would not do business with them anymore and their GDP would go down. Just look what is happening to the ruble and Russian stocks. China doesn't want to turn +8% GDP increase rate into -8% GDP decrease rate.

TSMC NEEDS Dutch ASML to function. Without ASML they won't be able to make new factories. If ASML stopped selling them EUV machines, their expansion would come to a halt and China could not catch up to the West.
Global economy doubles in product every 15-20 years. Computer performance at a constant price doubles nowadays every 4 years on average. Livestock-as-food will globally stop being a thing by ~2050 (precision fermentation and more). Human stupidity, pride and depravity are the biggest problems of our world.
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wjfox
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

Post by wjfox »

Yeah, a Taiwan invasion seems less likely now. And perhaps other potential invasions/flashpoints around the world too. So perhaps some good may actually come from the Ukraine situation in the medium to longer term... albeit at a terrible price for Ukraine and Russia.

Unlike Russia, the Chinese don't seem to have an insane leadership.
weatheriscool
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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China Warns West as Report Promises to Resolve 'Taiwan Question'
Source: Newsweek
The Chinese government warned Saturday against foreign interference in its relations with Taiwan as it released a new report pledging to resolve the issue of Taiwanese independence "in the modern era."

The issue of Taiwanese independence has long put China at odds with many Western nations, as China considers Taiwan to be part of its nation—staunchly opposing any independence movements. Taiwanese leaders, however, consider the island to be its own country, making the relationship between the two all the more difficult.

During remarks at the opening of China's parliament meeting, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang stood by the "One China" principle, which states that Taiwan is part of a unified China.

"We will advance the peaceful growth of relations across the Taiwan Strait and the reunification of China," he said, according to Reuters. "We firmly oppose any separatist activities seeking 'Taiwan independence' and firmly oppose foreign interference," adding, "All of us, Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, should come together to advance the great and glorious cause of China's rejuvenation."
Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/china-warns-we ... on-1685219
Doozer
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

Post by Doozer »

If Russia fails in its invasion of Ukraine, China might postpone whatever plans it has to conquer Taiwan.
weatheriscool
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China war watch news and discussion

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Biden: US would intervene militarily if China invades Taiwan
Source: Associated Press
TOKYO (AP) — President Joe Biden said Monday that the U.S. would intervene militarily if China were to invade Taiwan, in one of the most forceful and overt statements in support of Taiwan in decades.

Biden said the burden to protect the self-ruled island was “even stronger” after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking at a news conference in Tokyo, Biden said, “That’s the commitment we made.” He said an effort by China to use force against Taiwan would “just not be appropriate,” saying it “will dislocate the entire region and be another action similar to what happened in Ukraine.”

Under the “One China” policy, the U.S. recognizes Beijing as the government of China and doesn’t have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. However, it maintains unofficial contacts with Taiwan, including a de facto embassy in Taipei, the capital. The U.S. also supplies military equipment for the island’s defense.
-snip-

By JOSH BOAK and AAMER MADHANI
16 minutes ago


Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... e8735f7e71
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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China will 'not hesitate to start war' if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing says

10/06/2022 - 17:41

Beijing will "not hesitate to start a war" if Taiwan declares independence, China's defence minister warned his US counterpart Friday, the latest salvo between the superpowers over the island.

The warning from Wei Fenghe came as he held his first face-to-face meeting with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore.

Beijing views democratic, self-ruled Taiwan as its territory and has vowed to one day seize the island, by force if necessary, and US-China tensions over the issue have soared in recent months.

Wei warned Austin that "if anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war no matter the cost", defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian quoted the minister as saying during the meeting.

The Chinese minister vowed that Beijing would "smash to smithereens any 'Taiwan independence' plot and resolutely uphold the unification of the motherland", according to the Chinese defence ministry.

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacifi ... ijing-says
weatheriscool
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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US: China's military activity around Taiwan threatens region
Source: AP

By SYAWALLUDIN ZAIN and DAVID RISING

SINGAPORE (AP) — U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stressed American support for Taiwan on Saturday, suggesting at Asia’s premier defense forum that recent Chinese military activity around the self-governing island threatens to change the status quo.

Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Austin noted a “steady increase in provocative and destabilizing military activity near Taiwan,” including almost daily military flights near the island by the People’s Republic of China.

“Our policy hasn’t changed, but unfortunately that doesn’t seem to be true for the PRC,” he said.

Austin said Washington remains committed to the “one-China policy,” which recognizes Beijing but allows informal relations and defense ties with Taipei.


Read more: https://apnews.com/article/lloyd-austin ... c9cd4227a1
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

Post by caltrek »

I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the problem lies in the ambiguity of the so-called "One China" policy. The policy ignores the reality, that the mainland and Taiwan are in fact under two separate systems. Personally, I am inclined to say I support the notion of Taiwan being a separate country, with all rights of sovereignty thereby observed. However, that is problematic for two reasons. Most obviously because the mainland government objects, but also because that runs counter to what the people of Taiwan appear to desire. For the elite of Taiwan (apparently supported by much of the underlying population), they do not want to give up on the idea of introducing reforms onto the mainland that would allow their further ascendancy. So, they support a "One China" policy in order to keep that dream intact.

It is not One China, Two Cultures. In the West, we think nothing of a people being divided in the sense of being under different governments but still under one culture. The Unite States of America is, or at least was, first established as a federation of different states. Great Britain, the United States, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand all, broadly speaking, share the same culture, with some blending with varying native elements depending upon geography. This concept appears to be very foreign to both Chinas. Hence, at least provisionally, the "One China" policy. Yet the "One China, Two Systems" policy clearly came to a disastrous end in Hong Kong (at least disastrous in my view). Mainland China now seems intent on reaching that same conclusion in respect to Taiwan. Hence the ongoing tension.
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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U.S. senators propose bill to counter Chinese threat against Taiwan

Source: Focus Taiwan
Taipei, June 17 (CNA) Two United States senators introduced a bill Thursday that Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) described as a "flagship" proposal aimed at countering China's threats against Taiwan and elevating the relationship between Taipei and Washington.

The bill, dubbed the "Taiwan Policy Act of 2022," was co-sponsored by Senator Robert Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Lindsey Graham, the ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee.

In a statement issued Friday, MOFA spokeswoman Joanne Ou 歐江安 described the bill as a "flagship" proposal because it includes provisions that seek to strengthen Taiwan's cooperation with the U.S. on security and trade issues, elevate the Taiwan-U.S. relationship, and counter threats from China.

According to a Reuters report, the bill calls for severe sanctions against Chinese officials for a "significant escalation in hostile action in or against Taiwan" and would "prioritize and expedite" U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
Read more: https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202206170013
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