China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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wjfox
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China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025, island’s defence minister says

Wed 6 Oct 2021 04.31 BST

China will be capable of mounting a full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025, the island’s defence minister Chiu Kuo-cheng has said, describing current tensions as the worst in 40 years.

Speaking to the China Times on Wednesday, Chiu said China was capable now, but would be completely prepared to launch an invasion in three years.

“By 2025, China will bring the cost and attrition to its lowest. It has the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take many other things into consideration,” he said.

Beijing sent about 150 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence zone over four days beginning on Friday, the same day China marked a key patriotic holiday, in a record escalation of its grey zone military activity directed towards the island.

Beijing claims Taiwan as a province of China and has vowed to retake it, by force if necessary, and accuses its democratically elected government of being separatists. Taiwan’s government says it is already a sovereign nation with no need to declare independence. On Tuesday Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen wrote that Taiwan would not be “adventurists” but would do “whatever it takes” to defend itself.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -agreement


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Credit: Reuters
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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'Does Beijing have a timetable for seizing control of Taiwan?...I believe such a timetable exists. If the timeline was rather vague in the past, it has become clearer now. And the US security strategy that President Donald Trump recently unveiled will hasten the pace of Beijing’s plan to take back the island, probably in 2020.'
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-op ... force-2020
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

Post by raklian »

Something tells me the United States will deflate and withdraw without supporting Taiwan when China does earnestly begin the full-scale invasion. The political will just isn't there as Congress will once again be bitterly divided and gridlocked. I don't think Biden will want to give the impression he's risking American lives just to save some island right next to China. Most Americans probably can't pinpoint where Taiwan is.
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funkervogt
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

Post by funkervogt »

raklian wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:55 pm Something tells me the United States will deflate and withdraw without supporting Taiwan when China does earnestly begin the full-scale invasion. The political will just isn't there as Congress will once again be bitterly divided and gridlocked. I don't think Biden will want to give the impression he's risking American lives just to save some island right next to China. Most Americans probably can't pinpoint where Taiwan is.
If a conflict happens, I think it's likelier that Taiwan will "deflate" by bungling its own defense and surrendering to China even though further resistance was possible. America would be able and willing to help, but we'd question whether it was worth it considering that the Taiwanese were too cowardly to fight hard for themselves.
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Yuli Ban
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

Post by Yuli Ban »

As expected. China would be foolish to just let Taiwan and Hong Kong persist as independent entities; absorbing them all but boosts their economic standing in the world by at least a fourth of what it already is. As for whether they morally should, well morals never got in the way of imperial expansion.

The only risk is getting the USA involved, and there's certainly incentive for it considering Taiwan's superconductor industry. However, I think the tech companies are willing to just work with China instead of blowing everything up.
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

Post by erowind »

America doesn't have the capability to fight a prolonged conventional war with China within range of Chinese rocket artillery and air defense systems. China's missile defense arsenal makes it impossible for the US navy to operate within range meaning that the US would be largely restricted to using strategic bombers and cruise missiles to inflict damage on Chinese industry.

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Their missiles render every strategic bomber but the B2 functionally useless and there's only a few dozen of them in service and they take time to build. America's strategic bombing fleet otherwise isn't sufficient to use overwhelming force. There are ~ 750 B52s in service which are both massive sitting ducks in a peer war in the 21st century and not sufficient in number. The newer B1 bomber is less of a sitting duck but can still be targeted and there are only ~100 in service. There will be no mass carpet bombing like during the Korean War or WWII from America in a peer war with China. The scale simply isn't there.

What about tomahawk missiles and other cruise missiles? America only has about 4,000 tomahawks and for context it took ~800 to subdue Iraq's industry in 2003. China's industrial complex and urban centers are magnitudes larger than Iraq's. Now, America is upgrading its missile arsenal but these upgrades are coming at the cost of retiring some tomahawks. America would need 10s of thousands of cruise missiles to subdue China and the numbers simply aren't there either.

All this means that if the US isn't willing to escalate the conflict to a nuclear war it is largely powerless against China in a conflict that involves operating anywhere near China itself. And we all know that nuclear war means nobody wins and it is likely that between highly developed states such as the US and China MAD will prevent such a conflict.

So what happens if China tries to reclaim Taiwan? The UN already recognizes Taiwan as China's territory meaning that there wouldn't be international support for American intervention and that China is technically in its legal right. (I personally support a Taiwan independent of both American and Chinese imperialism but I digress.) The Japanese and Australians would likely assist America but they will encounter the same problems America will and Japan doesn't exactly have a large strategic bombing force they could attack the mainland with. South Korea is likely to remain neutral in order to prevent a land invasion from the DPRK and Chinese.

If Taiwan fights to the last the conflict could last many months or even a few years but ultimately America won't be able to land support troops in a sustained manner and Taiwan will be completely alone outside of unreliable air support and air supply drops. At some point China will manage to land a sustained invasion force and the Taiwanese will succumb to overwhelming force. Taiwan's industrial complex can't compete in the long term and neither can America's for that matter.

This means China will win and America will lose its dominance in the South China Sea which will also call into question America's ability to protect other imperial interests globally. (What "analysts" love to call "American interests.")
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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Xi Jinping vows Taiwan’s ‘reunification’ with China will be fulfilled

Sat 9 Oct 2021 06.51 BST

China’s president, Xi Jinping, has vowed to realise “reunification” with Taiwan, without mentioning the use of force, after a week of tensions.

Taiwan responded shortly after by calling on Beijing to abandon its coercion, reiterating that only Taiwan’s people could decide their future.

Democratically run Taiwan has come under increased military and political pressure to accept Beijing’s sovereignty, but Taiwan says it is an independent country, using its formal name: the Republic of China.

Speaking at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on Saturday, Xi said the Chinese people had a “glorious tradition” of opposing separatism.

“Taiwan’s independence separatism is the biggest obstacle to achieving the reunification of the motherland, and the most serious hidden danger to national rejuvenation,” he said on the anniversary of the revolution that overthrew China’s last imperial dynasty in 1911. Taiwan marks 10 October, when the revolution began, as its national day.

Xi said “reunification through a peaceful manner is the most in line with the overall interest of the Chinese nation, including Taiwan compatriots”, but added that China will protect its sovereignty and unity.

“No one should underestimate the Chinese people’s staunch determination, firm will, and strong ability to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Xi said.

“The historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled, and will definitely be fulfilled.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -fulfilled


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Credit: Carlos García Rawlins/Reuters
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funkervogt
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

Post by funkervogt »

erowind wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:35 pm America doesn't have the capability to fight a prolonged conventional war with China within range of Chinese rocket artillery and air defense systems. China's missile defense arsenal makes it impossible for the US navy to operate within range meaning that the US would be largely restricted to using strategic bombers and cruise missiles to inflict damage on Chinese industry.

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Funny how the graphic doesn't show the radii of American missiles and bombers. It doesn't mention that missiles are useless if you don't know where your target is (namely, enemy warships), which is a major problem China will have during any war with the U.S.

Also, the U.S. has much better attack subs, they are virtually undetectable, and they'd inflict major damage on the Chinese navy, inside China's territorial waters. Again, that's not depicted in the graphic.

China's possessions in the Spratly Island chain are also indefensible and would be destroyed in the first days of war with the U.S., so you should mentally delete the red circles in the South China Sea. Again, the graphic doesn't say anything about that.
Last edited by funkervogt on Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

Post by funkervogt »

Yuli Ban wrote: Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:10 pm As expected. China would be foolish to just let Taiwan and Hong Kong persist as independent entities; absorbing them all but boosts their economic standing in the world by at least a fourth of what it already is. As for whether they morally should, well morals never got in the way of imperial expansion.
There's also an argument to be made that letting Taiwan remain independent serves the political interests of the Chinese government.
https://supchina.com/2021/06/07/no-chin ... de-taiwan/
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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Well, I wrote a giant reply but the forum autologged me out (a new "feature" I despise about this version of the forum) and I lost a good few pages worth of writing. So for now FV I would just ask that you consider industrial advantages China has over America, read the context of the graphic instead of seemingly hyperfocusing on it solely, and understand the math I initially presented. Because I did address American strategic bombers and missiles and you ignored it. On the Spratly islands point specifically, support your claim instead of making a statement that amounts to "I snarkily say it is therefore it is."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tsushima
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