China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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weatheriscool
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Taiwan says China military drills appear to simulate attack
Source: AP
BEIJING (AP) — Taiwan said Saturday that China’s military drills appear to simulate an attack on the self-ruled island, after multiple Chinese warships and aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei that infuriated Beijing.

Taiwan’s armed forces issued an alert, dispatched air and naval patrols around the island, and activated land-based missile systems in response to the Chinese exercises, the Ministry of National Defense said. As of 5 p.m., 20 Chinese aircraft and 14 ships continued to carry out sea and air exercises around the Taiwan Strait, it said.

The ministry said that zones declared by China as no-go areas during the exercises for other ships and aircraft had “seriously damaged the peace.” It emphasized that Taiwan’s military does not seek war, but would prepare and respond for it accordingly.

China’s Ministry of Defense said in a statement Saturday that it had carried out military exercises as planned in the sea and airspaces to the north, southwest, and east of Taiwan, with a focus on “testing the capabilities” of its land strike and sea assault systems.


Read more: https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china ... dc823819b6
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China keeps up pressure on Taiwan with 4th day of drills
Source: AP

BEIJING (AP) — China said Sunday it carried out its fourth consecutive day of military drills in the air and sea around Taiwan in the wake of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the self-ruled island, despite international calls to calm the tensions.

The People’s Liberation Army said the exercises focused on testing its long-range air and ground strikes. It did not say if it will continue the drills after Sunday.

Taiwan said that it continued to detect several batches of Chinese aircraft, ships and drones operating around the Taiwan Strait, which separates the island and mainland China, and “simulating attacks on the island of Taiwan and our ships at sea.”

Taiwan’s official Central News Agency meanwhile reported that Taiwan’s army will conduct live-fire artillery drills in southern Pingtung County on Tuesday and Thursday, in response to the Chinese exercises.




Read more: https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-world ... a589f84114
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White House summoned Chinese ambassador to condemn provocations after Pelosi's Taiwan visit
Source: CNN
The White House summoned China's ambassador on Thursday to condemn China's "irresponsible" military activities near Taiwan as tensions continue to escalate in the region following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island this week.

"After China's actions overnight, we summoned PRC Ambassador Qin Gang to the White House to demarche him about the PRC's provocative actions. We condemned the PRC's military actions, which are irresponsible, at odds with our long-standing goal of maintaining peace and stability and across the Taiwan Strait," National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby said in a statement to CNN.

The decision to summon Qin came after days of warnings to China not to escalate tensions in the region following the speaker's visit to the self-governing island, which the Chinese Communist Party regards as its territory despite having never controlled it. It represents a shift from the White House's attitude about the trip before it occurred, when officials privately tried to warn Pelosi over the possible consequences of the visit and how it could harm US-China relations. The meeting was first reported by The Washington Post.

In the days since Pelosi left Taiwan, China has taken multiple bellicose steps, both diplomatically and militarily.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/05/politics ... index.html
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Taiwan holds drills, says China seeks control of seas
Source: AP

By JOHNSON LAI
PINGTUNG, Taiwan (AP) — Taiwan’s foreign minister said Tuesday that China is using military drills to rehearse an invasion of the self-governing island democracy, while Taiwan’s military began its own live-fire exercises in a show of readiness to thwart off a potential attack.

Joseph Wu said Beijing aims to establish its dominance in the Western Pacific and annex Taiwan, which it claims as its own territory. That would include control of the East and South China Seas via the Taiwan Strait and preventing the U.S. and its allies from aiding Taiwan, he told a news conference in Taipei.

China says its drills were prompted by the visit to the island last week by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but Wu said China was using her trip as a pretext for intimidating moves it has long had in the works. China also banned some Taiwanese food imports after the visit and cut off dialogue with the U.S. on a range of issues from military contacts to combating transnational crime and climate change.

The U.S. has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan in deference to Beijing, but is legally bound to ensure the island can defend itself and to treat all threats against it — including a blockade — as matters of grave concern. That leaves open the question of whether Washington would dispatch forces if China attacked Taiwan. President Joe Biden has said repeatedly the U.S. was bound to do so, in comments swiftly walked back by his staff.


Read more: https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china ... 7dcebf5d3d
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US congressional delegation visits Taiwan
Source: CNN
(CNN) A US congressional delegation led by Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Ed Markey has arrived in Taipei on an unannounced two-day visit, Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Joanne Ou said in a statement on Sunday night.

The delegation also consists of Democratic Reps. John Garamendi, Alan Lowenthal and Don Beyer, and Republican Rep. Aumua Amata Coleman Radewagen, the statement added.

The group will meet with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen and Foreign Minister Joseph Wu during the visit, and will also hold discussions with the Taiwanese parliament's Foreign Affairs and National Defense committee on security and trade issues, the ministry said.

The foreign ministry added that it sincerely welcomed the delegation, and thanked them for demonstrating the US' strong support toward Taiwan despite escalating tensions with Beijing. The visit follows a trip by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan earlier this month, which caused an uproar in US-Chinese relations.

This story is breaking and will be updated.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/14/politics ... index.html
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China announces new drills as US delegation visits Taiwan
Source: AP

By JOHNSON LAI
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — China announced more military drills around Taiwan as the self-governing island’s president met with members of a new U.S. congressional delegation on Monday, threatening to renew tensions between Beijing and Washington after a similar recent visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi angered China.

Pelosi was the highest-level member of the U.S. government to visit Taiwan in 25 years, and her trip prompted nearly two weeks of threatening military exercises by China, which claims the island as its own. In those drills, Beijing fired missiles over the island and into the Taiwan Strait and sent warplanes and navy ships across the waterway’s midline, which has long been a buffer between the sides that split amid civil war in 1949.

China accuses the U.S. of encouraging the island’s independence through the sale of weapons and engagement between U.S. politicians and the island’s government. Washington says it does not support independence, has no formal diplomatic ties with the island and maintains that the two sides should settle their dispute peacefully — but it is legally bound to ensure the island can defend itself against any attack.

American and Taiwanese officials have accused China of using Pelosi’s visit as a pretext for intimidating moves, and a senior U.S. official said recently that Washington would continue to deepen its ties with Taiwan in the coming days and weeks.


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funkervogt
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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A new analysis concludes that the U.S. and Taiwan could defeat a Chinese invasion of the island, but at high cost. The tabletop exercise assumed war happened in 2026.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/08/chinas-dr ... sumptions/

It's an interesting read. A key assumption is that no one else helps the U.S. and Taiwan. If Japan and/or Australia joined the fight, China's odds of victory would sharply drop.

Even if it won, the U.S. military might be so damaged by a war for Taiwan that it would not be able to prevail in a major war elsewhere in the world for several years until it had replaced its losses. Imagine Russia or Iran taking advantage of that.
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funkervogt
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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And here's a very in-depth analysis of China's growing military strength. Key conclusion: China is still at least 10 years away from reaching its military peak relative to the U.S. That said, invading Taiwan now would be a mistake.

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raklian
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Re: China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025

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funkervogt wrote: Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:34 pm And here's a very in-depth analysis of China's growing military strength. Key conclusion: China is still at least 10 years away from reaching its military peak relative to the U.S. That said, invading Taiwan now would be a mistake.
China might be at least 10 years away in perpetuity if the US makes major progress on its Ghost Fleet Overlord program. And don't forget U.S. has strong allies in Japan, Australia, maybe India in its quest to contain China. China is alone and has a lot of domestic problems that will likely to hamstring its ability to project its military might in a sustained manner.

I don't think China will ever have the "perfect" opportunity to invade Taiwan.
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
weatheriscool
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US sails warships through Taiwan Strait in 1st since Pelosi
Source: AP

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — The U.S. Navy sailed two warships through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, in the first such transit publicized since U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan earlier in August, at a time when tensions have kept the waterway particularly busy.

The USS Antietam and USS Chancellorsville are conducting a routine transit, the U.S. 7th Fleet said. The cruisers “transited through a corridor in the Strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal State,” the statement said.

China conducted many military exercises in the strait as it sought to punish Taiwan after Pelosi visited the self-ruled island against Beijing’s threats.

China has sent many warships sailing in the Taiwan Strait and waters surrounding Taiwan since Pelosi’s visit, as well as sending warplanes and firing long-range missiles. It views the island as part of its national territory and opposes any visits by foreign governments as recognizing Taiwan as its own state.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china ... position_5
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