Ukraine War Watch Thread

weatheriscool
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by weatheriscool »

NATO sends ships and fighter jets to eastern Europe
Source: AP
BRUSSELS (AP) — NATO said Monday that it’s putting extra forces on standby and sending more ships and fighter jets to eastern Europe as Russia continues its troop build-up near Ukraine.

It said that it’s beefing up its “deterrence” presence in the Baltic Sea area. A number of members of the 30-country military organization have offered troops and equipment.

Denmark is sending a frigate to the Baltic Sea and deploying F-16 war planes to Lithuania. Spain is sending ships to join NATO’s standing maritime force and considering sending fighter jets to Bulgaria. France stands ready to send troops to Bulgaria, NATO said.

“NATO will continue to take all necessary measures to protect and defend all Allies, including by reinforcing the eastern part of the Alliance. We will always respond to any deterioration of our security environment, including through strengthening our collective defence,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement.
Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 52ef09d102
weatheriscool
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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US orders 8,500 troops on heightened alert amid Russia worry
Source: AP

The Pentagon ordered 8,500 troops on higher alert Monday to potentially deploy to Europe as part of a NATO “response force” amid growing concern that Russia could soon make a military move on Ukraine. President Joe Biden consulted with key European leaders, underscoring U.S. solidarity with allies there.

Putting the U.S.-based troops on heightened alert for Europe suggested diminishing hope that Russian President Vladimir Putin will back away from what Biden himself has said looks like a threat to invade neighboring Ukraine.

At stake, beyond the future of Ukraine, is the credibility of a NATO alliance that is central to U.S. defense strategy but that Putin views as a Cold War relic and a threat to Russian security. For Biden, the crisis represents a major test of his ability to forge a united allied stance against Putin.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said about 8,500 U.S.-based troops are being put on alert for possible deployment — not to Ukraine but to NATO territory in Eastern Europe as part of an alliance force meant to signal a unified commitment to deter any wider Putin aggression.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 52ef09d102
weatheriscool
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by weatheriscool »

8500 US and 40,000 NATO Troops Placed on Standby
January 24, 2022 by Brian Wang

The Pentagon has put 8500 troops on alert for possible deployment to Eastern Europe in case Russia invades the Ukraine.

I think there is no chance of any direct US or NATO engagement of Russian troops inside Ukraine. Troops would be doing to other nearby countries.

The UK and USA are drawing down embassy staff and embassy families from Ukraine.

There is also a 40,000 troop NATO Response Force. There is rumors of considerations to activate those troops. The NATO website reports:
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/01/174439.html
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andmar74
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by andmar74 »

US to the rescue, again:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ies-energy
US finalizing plans to divert gas to Europe if Russia cuts off supply
weatheriscool
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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US offers no concessions in response to Russia on Ukraine
Source: AP

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV and MATTHEW LEE

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration and NATO told Russia on Wednesday there will be no U.S. or NATO concessions on Moscow’s main demands to resolve the crisis over Ukraine.

In separate written responses delivered to the Russians, the U.S. and NATO held firm to the alliance’s open-door policy for membership, rejected a demand to permanently ban Ukraine from joining, and said allied deployments of troops and military equipment in Eastern Europe are nonnegotiable.

“There is no change, there will be no change,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. Also not up for negotiation will be the U.S. and European response to any Russian invasion of Ukraine, he said, repeating the mantra that any such incursion would be met with massive consequences and severe economic costs.

The responses were not unexpected and mirrored what senior U.S. and NATO officials have been saying for weeks. Nonetheless, they and the eventual Russian reaction to them could determine whether Europe will again be plunged into war.


Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 954488ba90
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urdestan
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by urdestan »

Yuli Ban wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:51 pm I mentioned the Nagorno-Karabakh war earlier
If we want to understand what the Ukraine war will hold, it's best to look back to it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_war
I’ve followed this war in late 2020 and its after effects in early 2021 especially on Armenia. Yet the average American does not know this happened thanks to media coverage focused on internal American politics and bickering or if externally, its always about China or some other place thats a major threat to America.

The Nagorno-Karabakh War showed what warfare might look like in the future or at least glimpses of it. Azerbaijan has a technological edge compared to Armenia, their arms are supplied by Turkey (a regional power and close ally to it), Israel and a few other western countries, iirc, which is how they were able to take back a majority of territory held by Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh). There may be a greater role in drones in combat as well in a hypothetical 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War, which was one of Azerbaijan’s points of winning the war.

But Ukraine isn’t like Armenia or at least how I view it. They are between Europe and Russia essentially, unlike Armenia where they are surrounded by two major belligerents (Turkey and Azerbaijan) that refuse to cooperate with them for reasons always associated with nationalism. Its how Armenia lost the war, essentially their only ally (if at all) was Russia and even then, Russia didn’t really contribute too much into their support. Ukraine has the edge of being a strategic point for the West compared to Armenia, so the West would naturally try to support them to push their goals and maybe would back them in such a fight through supplying arms. If its like a one-on-one war, then Ukraine is certainly going to be defeated by Russia - but much like the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, their spirits won’t be broken so easily thanks to years of being on alert essentially (since 2014), so I can see them fighting off longer especially if they try to take over western Ukraine.

It might seem a bit off topic (and if so, you could delete the post), but I wanted to share my own opinion between these comparisons, but they might seem a little nuanced and oversimplified.

Also another note, I would wish that everyone would not trust bad media like The Grayzone alongside some lefty apologists to Russia trying to justify Russia’s imperialist course on Ukraine (heck, even some of the worst American conservative pundits are supporting Russia with their likeminded views). Just because America has done imperialism on Iraq or Afghanistan, doesn’t mean Russia’s is justifiable. It is not an “anti-imperialist” power and its doing the same thing America did to both countries but with Ukraine and previously, Georgia. I believe Ukraine has the right to having their own nation on the principle of self-defence and their wish for independence, although ultimately, history (a subjective thing) and nationalism seems to always muddle everything around me.

I am also hoping that peace would prevail as well, it would be a big lose for Russia and Europe if war breaks out. Russia’s economy cripples while Europe loses access to well, gas (looking at you Germany). I think the idea of autonomy could work for the Donbas region through a referendum, but then again, Crimea, while being autonomous decided to annex itself to Russia back in 2014 so they could just do the same which kinda makes it pointless imo. Eh, I’m not sure. I ramble too much and I got to put it here somehow.
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erowind
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by erowind »

urdestan wrote: Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:57 am Also another note, I would wish that everyone would not trust bad media like The Grayzone alongside some lefty apologists to Russia trying to justify Russia’s imperialist course on Ukraine (heck, even some of the worst American conservative pundits are supporting Russia with their likeminded views). Just because America has done imperialism on Iraq or Afghanistan, doesn’t mean Russia’s is justifiable. It is not an “anti-imperialist” power and its doing the same thing America did to both countries but with Ukraine and previously, Georgia. I believe Ukraine has the right to having their own nation on the principle of self-defence and their wish for independence, although ultimately, history (a subjective thing) and nationalism seems to always muddle everything around me.
That's not the whole contention. There are some idiots that are just being Russian apologists yes. But it's not a question of Ukranian sovereignty in regards to NATOs involvement. Supporting an American backed Ukraine is just as bad as supported a Russian annexed Ukraine in the event of proxy war. Both sides regardless of who wins just ends with a destroyed Ukraine followed by decades of austerity where what is left of the countries wealth gets siphoned into either Russia or the United States/EU through forced austerity and financial imperialism. There is no free Ukraine if either America or Russia are involved. The same problem with Belarus for that matter, stuck between two imperialist powers and in that case Belarus chose Russia after EU and IMF policy forced austerity on them through various financial levers.

The answer is to support no imperialisms.
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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^^^I know that it is not the intent but casting the situation in terms of colonialism can be very misleading. That is to say there is no economic logic to military action in Ukraine. Such action will have negative economic consequences. It only has economic benefits if the Ukraine is brought into the orbit of one or the other side through peaceful means. So, military action is inherently irrational. It may spring from relatively rational actions to maneuver for economic advantage, but it can quickly morph into something that is highly irrational and counterproductive to all that are concerned.

What I came here to post:

Macron Reaffirms Solidarity with Ukraine in Call with Ukraine's Leader
January 28, 2022

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2022 ... in-ukraine

Introduction:
(France 24) French President Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed France’s solidarity with Ukraine in a phone call Friday with President Volodymyr Zelensky amid tensions between Moscow and Kyiv. In an earlier phone call, Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on the need to “de-escalate" the situation. Follow Friday's events as they happened in our coverage below.

22:29 Paris time: Ukraine’s Zelensky says diplomacy must continue if conditions allow

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said after his phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron late on Friday that intensive international negotiations reduced "the chance of escalation" in Kyiv's stand-off with Moscow.

"As long as conditions are conducive, we must meet & talk," Zelensky said in a tweet, adding that he agreed with his French counterpart to keep up the pace of diplomatic talks.
This report was cited in Courthouse News: https://www.courthousenews.com/hopes-fo ... utin-talk/. I should add that most of the information in the Courthouse News article is largely repetitive of information already posted earlier in this thread.
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erowind
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by erowind »

caltrek wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 4:01 pm ^^^I know that it is not the intent but casting the situation in terms of colonialism can be very misleading. That is to say there is no economic logic to military action in Ukraine. Such action will have negative economic consequences. It only has economic benefits if the Ukraine is brought into the orbit of one or the other side through peaceful means. So, military action is inherently irrational. It may spring from relatively rational actions to maneuver for economic advantage, but it can quickly morph into something that is highly irrational and counterproductive to all that are concerned.
Not necessarily. As profitability crises are caused by the tendency for the rate of profit to fall, nation states are incentivized towards greater imperial competition, as per Lenin's Imperialism the Highest Stage of Capitalism. (Book has problems, but much of its economic observations have shown to be remarkably consistent with reality since.)

Sometimes that imperial jockying won't bring about actual conflict for the reasons you're mentioning, that there would be too much economic damage. But other times, especially during profitability crises as we're seeing now and is evident by increased monetary policy interventions by the Federal Reserve, inflation, etc, it is profitable to burn accumulated capital. Profitable because by destroying accumulated capital the capitalist system is able to temporarily increase profitability during the both increased production during wars and from the rebuilding efforts thereafter, or in our modern times, austerity measures. As in, Ukraine's infrastructure would be partially rebuilt after a war, which itself would be profitable, but rest assured that infrastructure would also be privatized to extract rent into imperial cores.

WWI and WWII both were massive capital destruction events that directly increased profitability for a time. For that matter, that's also why our societies today tend to rebuild poor infrastructure after "natural" disasters like hurricanes, it's profitable to let things be destroyed and rebuilt over and over without care for the human or ecological cost. What would make sense is to either build infrastructure that can withstand hurricanes, or simply not rebuild in areas prone to them. Yet, we don't. And any cultural attachment to those georegions would be a poor excuse for not seeing the real motive. If we genuinely cared about living there and wanted to preserve the culture we would weatherize everything, and it's not like people haven't migrated in other periods of history if we decide we don't want to put the work into to do that.

Image

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/ ... -approach/

https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Crisis_theory
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

You make some good points about rational alternatives. While you mention World War I and World War II, I should note that I have been reading Hanah Arendt's The Origins of Totalitarianism. She makes the point, If I can oversimplify for the moment, that these were in part explainable by looking at clashes between pan-German and pan-Slavic ideologies. These were in turn rooted in issues of identity and ideas of cultural superiority. They were only sometimes related to economic considerations. For example, one reason Jews were signaled out for oppression from both the pan-Slavic and pan-German camps were the role played by Jewish bankers in the past as financiers for royalist governments. So, an entire ethnic and religious group had to pay for the sins carried out by a tiny minority in their midst. A minority who often sought to distance themselves from any identity as Jews.

These sorts of racist and bigoted attitudes had very little to do with a "declining rate of profit." Moreover, "Western Imperialism" as associated with countries like Great Britain, France, the United States and even Germany were largely coincidental to the clash between pan-German and pan-Slavic ideological and cultural interests. I think it is in fact highly confusing to historical truth to use that "declining rate of profit" argument as the magic hammer by which all nails must be pounded.

Edit: I started to read the first article you posted. Sure, the depression that preceded World War II certainly did not help the situation. That, in turn, can be somewhat traced to the "declining rate of profit." My point still stands that it is an oversimplification to state that such a decline therefore caused World War II. The crash of the system created a situation where many looked for scape goats. Blaming a "declining rate of profit" is in and of itself a kind of a search for a scape goat. It makes it seem rational what was essentially an irrational situation.

Edit: Also, looking at the chart you provide shows a clear indication of the declining rate of profit trend between 1869 and 1983. Overall, there is virtually no change between 1983 and 2008.

Edit: Perhaps I read the two articles too quickly, but I also think there is an issue of precisely how "profit" is identified and defined. For example, how does the rate of compensation for management fit into the picture? How can we be sure "profit" is not simply a shift from payment to shareholders to an increase in executive compensation?

Not to mention other factors such as capital gains.
Don't mourn, organize.

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