Ukraine War Watch Thread

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joe00uk
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by joe00uk »

caltrek wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 3:42 pm I wish you guys would get your story straight. At one moment it is "well, everything in the Western media is biased against Russia and our viewpoint," and the next is "here is somehting in the Western media supporting our argument."

Right.
If the polls I mentioned had been incorporated into the mainstream media coverage of Russia and Ukraine, perhaps you'd have a point. As it stands, however, they were quietly shoved aside because of their inconvenience to the official narrative - to the extent they were even noticed at all.
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joe00uk
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by joe00uk »

caltrek wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 3:48 pm Wait, I thought you were the guy that favored Brexit on the grounds that rugged individualism and separatism was better for Great Britain than being intertwined with the European Union. We have seen how that is working out.

Now, suddenly, its wrong to "cut ourselves off from Russian resources"?

Right.
Have I even discussed Brexit much on this forum? I'm not so sure. In any case, I don't really care about it. It's had very little impact either positive or negative. The problems we're facing now are also shared by many other countries, the US being one, and several EU member states being others. Maybe if Britain was the only country being affected, I would concede that to you. And yes, it is stupid to cut ourselves off from Russian resources. We've already seen that it's only adding to the problems we're failing to deal with.
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Certain Russian user
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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caltrek wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 3:42 pm I wish you guys would get your story straight. At one moment it is "well, everything in the Western media is biased against Russia and our viewpoint," and the next is "here is somehting in the Western media supporting our argument."
My story is straight. I could easily provide you a huge lot of reports and photos from the frontline, but since those are RUSSIAN reports, you could have automatically dismissed them all as "propaganda and disinformation". Here, however, even your own biased western media confirmed my narrative.
We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

Certain Russian user wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 4:23 pm
caltrek wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 3:42 pm I wish you guys would get your story straight. At one moment it is "well, everything in the Western media is biased against Russia and our viewpoint," and the next is "here is something in the Western media supporting our argument."
My story is straight. I could easily provide you a huge lot of reports and photos from the frontline, but since those are RUSSIAN reports, you could have automatically dismissed them all as "propaganda and disinformation". Here, however, even your own biased western media confirmed my narrative.
I think both you and Joe are missing the point. In Russia there seems to be very much an effort underway by the government to control all domestic media sources so that they all just spout the official line. Some in that media have resisted that force, but it seems to be definitely something that needs to be contended with.

This is a different situation than a loose consensus by the "mainstream" media in which alternative outlets are allowed. Now, if you feel more comfortable with the Russian situation, then so be it. Needless to say, I prefer the Western approach, where at least in some places dissident forces can be heard without fear of government reprisal.

So, again, perhaps a matter of agreeing to disagree. Except now the situation is escalated. Disagreement by Ukrainians means being subject to invasion. So, a viewpoint is being rammed down their throats at the point of a gun barrel. Too bad that you do not see a problem with that.
Last edited by caltrek on Mon May 23, 2022 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Anyway, too much of me in this thread these days (blame this on the could weather and heavy rains in my places). Perhaps we just need a break from each other.

So far, that's what I think should happen in the foreseeable future. The southern part of Ukrainian "Donbass Front" was broken after the fall of Popasna (7 May). The next targets, likely, will become Severodonetsk-Lisichansk (formally two but in fact one city divided by river). They will soon be liberated (or occupied, call it as you like). Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration will follow later.

And here, after the full liberation of Donbass, there will be an important turning point of the whole war and the fateful exam for Ukrainian elite. At that point, Russia will likely offer them another peace treaty or truce. If the Ukrainian elites have preserved at least some remnants of sanity, they will be happy to seize this opportunity. Other hand, if they're already the complete puppets, they'll "proudly" reject and continue to do what they're doing right now: throw new and new mobilized unfortunates into the flame. Then the war will last much longer and its price for Ukraine will be much higher: already not dozens, but hundreds of thousands of killed and completely different borders by the end. Perhaps they'll end as small landlocked country with all the main cities ruined and another few millions fled to the West. Perhaps they will be divided between Russia and Poland with a small buffer state(s) in the middle. That's still very difficult to predict.

The current map of Donbass:
Image
We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Fate of 2,500 Ukrainian POWs from steel plant stirs concern
Source: AP

By ELENA BECATOROS, OLEKSANDR STASHEVSKYI and CIARAN McQUILLAN

POKROVSK, Ukraine (AP) — With Russia claiming to have taken prisoner nearly 2,500 Ukrainian fighters from the besieged Mariupol steel plant, concerns grew about their fate as a Moscow-backed separatist leader vowed they would face tribunals.

Russia has declared its full control of the Azovstal steel plant, which for weeks was the last holdout in Mariupol and a symbol of Ukrainian tenacity in the strategic port city, now in ruins with more than 20,000 residents feared dead. The seizure gives Russian President Vladimir Putin a badly wanted victory in the war he began nearly three months ago.

As the West rallies behind Ukraine, Polish President Andrzej Duda arrived in Ukraine on an unannounced visit and will address the country’s parliament on Sunday, his office said.

Poland, which has welcomed millions of Ukrainian refugees since the start of the war, is a strong supporter of Ukraine’s desire to join the European Union. With Russia blocking Ukraine’s sea ports, Poland has become a major gateway for Western humanitarian aid and weapons going into Ukraine and has been helping Ukraine get its grain and other agricultural products to world markets.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 49350553ae
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ukraine war: Russian soldier jailed for life over war crime

By Patrick Jackson
BBC News

Published
3 minutes ago

A court in Ukraine has jailed a Russian tank commander for life for killing a civilian at the first war crimes trial since the invasion.

Captured soldier Sgt Vadim Shishimarin was convicted of killing Oleksandr Shelipov, 62, in the north-eastern village of Chupakhivka on 28 February.

He admitted shooting Mr Shelipov but said he had been acting on orders and asked forgiveness of his widow.

Multiple other alleged war crimes are being investigated by Ukraine.

Moscow has denied its troops targeted civilians during the invasion while Ukraine says more than 11,000 crimes may have occurred.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61549569


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Certain Russian user
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Certain Russian user wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 3:44 pm Oh, and I forgot to congratulate everyone with today's precise strike on Western Ukraine... According to official release from Russian MOD, the target was Western military stuff and Ukrainian personnel. And according to howling and curses in Ukronet, Russian missiles successfully met their targets. :lol:
According to Ukrainian sources, which tend to underestimate (to put it mildly) their own losses, 87 bodies have been recovered from the rubble, the search continues...

I didn't even expect this was THAT successful.
wjfox wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 10:04 am Ukraine war: Russian soldier jailed for life over war crime
I highly doubt it will be "for life", he looks young and Ukrainian regime will surely not withstand that long. In worst case, the poor guy will be exchanged for one of surrendered Azov Neonazis.
We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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From Telegram:
Local sources reporting the beginning of the assault on Liman by the Russian Armed Forces. The clashes are already on the northern outskirts...
Russian/DPR forces also entered the residential areas of Severodonetsk and took control over several villages around Popasna.
We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

joe00uk wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 10:47 pm I see where you're coming from, but Zelenskyy's government is still part of the same regime that seized power in 2014 - which is to say it continues the same policies, ambitions, and institutions, is controlled by the same dominant cliques and is beholden to the same oligarchs. Ukraine's democratic integrity was poor under Poroshenko, but it has not been particularly impressive under Zelenskyy either. Clearly, however, the Maidan regime has cemented itself in its power and the Ukrainian population outside of the Donbass has acquiesced to its rule. When I speak of regime continuity, for comparison, I would define Britain today as being governed by the same regime since 1688, despite numerous transfers of power between various factions of the ruling elite.
That's a perspective not shared by everyone.
joe00uk wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 10:47 pmBut who is "us"? Ordinary people living in the West, or the ruling elite? Our ruling elites certainly seem convinced that it's in their interests to prop up their globalised empire along with its various military outposts at all costs, but it certainly doesn't benefit ordinary people here to deal with spiralling inflation and subsequent shortages and recession.
Basing your country's foreign policy on whether it makes sense to or immediately benefits the "ordinary man" of your country is a poor choice. What did the ordinary Englishman or Frenchman gain when their countries declared war on Hitler in 1939? What was the immediate benefit to ordinary citizens in NATO countries when their governments created the alliance 10 years later? Nothing.

The ruling elites took those actions anyway because they were smart enough and farsighted enough to see that the decisions were necessary to uphold important national goals and to benefit their citizens in the medium- and long run.

Today, supporting Ukraine is necessary to upholding the legal principle of state sovereignty and norms against naked aggression and annexation of territory. If the West were to turn its back on Ukraine now, it would send a signal to every bad actor in the world that they could do the same thing as Russia. China might invade Taiwan next, Russia might go on to invade Moldova, and there might be smaller wars involving countries I know nothing of. The result would be a more violent and less lawful world that, in the medium- and long-term would hurt the citizens of Western countries by damaging their economies and dragging them into even bigger wars where they held less of an advantage than they do in Ukraine today. A strengthened and enlarged Russia and China would have more leverage over the West in a variety of fields, from trade, science, technology, and diplomacy.
joe00uk wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 10:47 pmThe economies of the West are nominally "large", but the reality is increasingly different. Financial gimmickry and the global reserve status of the US dollar (which is now steadily fading) used to be able to mask this fact for a while, but ultimately, with depleted natural resources and most of our manufacturing capacities off-shored decades ago, our true economic might amounts to less and less each passing year. The power of the West depends on its ability to bludgeon and bankrupt the rest of the world into submission, and that hasn't been working out too well these last few decades. The tables are turning, for better or worse, and cutting ourselves off from valuable Russian resources isn't going to make that transition any smoother for us.
The economies of Western countries like the U.S., Germany and Japan aren't large anymore? Why do you say that?

Aside from China, have some other, non-Western countries expanded their economies to the point of being larger? Which countries have done that?

The narrative that the West is being economically overtaken by something else is also in trouble now. Look at China's sharply reduced GDP growth rate and the current and projected shrinkage of its working age population. Look at how far Russia has fallen behind the U.S. and its allies in terms of relative population and GDP since the end of the Cold War. In the long run, a breakdown in trade will hurt them more than it will hurt the West.

People have been complaining about the U.S. dollar's status as the global reserve currency and predicting its loss of that status for decades now, but it never happens. There is no credible alternative to the dollar.

All the evidence I've seen indicates that the status quo remains strong, and the tables are not actually turning.
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