Ukraine War Watch Thread

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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

The Legal Ramifications Of Political Rhetoric: Genocide In Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine
by Shivangi Seth
October 4, 2022

Introduction:
(Eurasia Review) Few words in the realm of international politics are more loaded than ‘genocide’. Six months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, evidence of mass killings, executions, and rape have poured out of the country. These have sparked allegations of genocide committed by Russian forces.

This article examines the international legal ramifications of such rhetoric. It makes three arguments. One, that there is limited political will among states to formally recognise genocide. Two, international judicial bodies suffer from institutional limitations that encumber the possibility of a timely genocide trial and verdict enforcement. Three, meeting the high legal threshold to establish genocide is extremely difficult. While effective as a rhetorical tool to further Russia’s political isolation, these genocide allegations have limited international legal and punitive aims.

Limited Political Will to Recognise Genocide

While several heads-of-state have accused Russian troops of committing genocide in Ukraine, there is sparse political will to formally label it as such.

The strongest voices have emerged from Europe. Multiple state Parliaments and the European Parliament have passed resolutions and statements characterising Russian actions in Ukraine as genocide. Outside Europe, only Canada’s House of Commons adopted a non-binding motion calling Russia’s crimes “acts of genocide.”

Leaders of several other countries, including US President Joe Biden, have called Russian crimes in Ukraine “genocide.” These political statements however don’t amount to official government recognition of genocide. Biden, for instance, specifically clarified that his statement was made in a personal capacity, deferring legal determination to international legal experts.
Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/04102022 ... analysis/

caltrek’s comment: While I don’t necessarily agree with every single point made by Mr. Seth, on the whole I find it to be an interesting and thought-provoking analysis.
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wjfox
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

In addition to the obvious insult of "implying" that you think somebody is a hypocrite, what-about-ism is also a deep insult to progressive and peace minded activists within countries such as Great Britain...
(The country where I am leaving now).

So...
Accusing somebody of whataboutism is as "kind" as accusing another person of hypocrisy?

*a deep insult to...
Wait...
A word is an insult depending to whom it is addressed?
I am confused here... If I think that somebody is an hypocrite, not calling him so would be... hypocrisy?

*(intentionally or on purpose)
(I am confused here too. A bit less, anyway).

I think this is way off topic, but...

*that you think somebody...
Wait...
What I think?, are you really getting there?

Let's say that "whataboutism" is a great word to use in this forum, but that " " is forbidden from now on and until the end of time.

(Unless, of course, you mean that it really depends of who is addressing what word to whom).
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raklian
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Guys, let's get a move on. We're getting sidetracked here. I'm sure all of you agree with that.
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ukraine regains Kherson villages from Russians

6 minutes ago

Ukrainian forces have liberated a key village in the southern region of Kherson, hastening another speedy Russian military retreat.

The defence ministry in Kyiv posted a video showing the 35th marine brigade hoisting a Ukrainian flag above Davydiv Brid, amid reports of several other nearby villages being recaptured.

Russian forces have already been forced to retreat in Ukraine's north east.

They are now being pushed back in the south as well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63137061


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Yuli Ban
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022 - EA Forum
Elite superforecasters with good track record estimate a 23% chance of a nuclear exchange in Ukraine in the next year. And if nuke used, 14% chance nuclear exchange will escalate beyond Ukraine-Russia the year after
After recent events in Ukraine, Samotsvety convened to update our probabilities of nuclear war. In March 2022, at the beginning of the Ukraine war, we were at ~0.01% that London would be hit with a nuclear weapon in the next month. Now, we are at ~0.02% for the next 1-3 months, and at 16% that Russia uses any type of nuclear weapon in Ukraine. At the end of the post, we reflect on the size of our update, and what this means about our accuracy.

Expected values are more finicky and more person-dependent than probabilities, and readers are encouraged to enter their own estimates, for which we provide a template. We’d guess that readers would lose 2 to 300 hours by staying in London in the next 1–3 months, but this estimate is at the end of a garden of forking paths, and more pessimistic or optimistic readers might make different methodological choices. We would recommend leaving if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

Since March, we have also added our track record to samotsvety.org/track-record, which might be of use to readers when considering how much weight to give to our predictions.
And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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caltrek
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^^^ Oh S__t.

That is much higher than the 1 to 2% chance a lot of "forecasters" have been offering. Although 1 to 2% may be overly optimistic, I do think that there is a lot of poker-faced bluffing going on. Neither side really wants an escalated nuclear war. Yet, neither side really wants to back down. It will be like OMG they are really getting serious, to OMG it is really going to happen, to the announcement of a sudden diplomatic breakthrough with face saving conditions for both sides.

Of course, part of the bluffing is the whole "Putin is a mad man" routine. The whole point of the bluff being to frighten and intimidate.

That is why those that oppose capitulation are right. Once you give in to nuclear blackmail, it is never going to end. On the other hand, wise men like Chomksy also have a point, negotiations are much to be desired. As I have earlier expressed, I really don't want to see civilization as we know it end because a "real estate deal" goes bad.
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Yuli Ban
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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...elements of the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet have operated in the area without rotation since March and that the frontline is stretched so thin that some villages in this sector have 15 men defending them.[31] The milblogger claimed that a frontline of 20km needs 500 men to defend at approximately 20m per person and that, due to under-staffing in battalions in northern Kherson Oblast, the ratio was one soldier per 60m of line.
ISW.

With this kind of "information" I cannot make head nor tail out of it. What are those elements of the 126th Bde?, none of them have been rotated or the Bde hasn't been rotated?, do we have any Ukrainian unit to compare?
In WW2, one btn (those 500 men more or less) defends -not "hold"- a 2km front, MGs, mortars and artillery support; today is the same (the range of missile/tank vs tank is longer, but not usually the actual fighting range). If, big if, that is the defender's situation, the advance is not that difficult; does Ukraine has the 2 btn to attack that 2km front?.
If that is the situation and Ukraine has those troops and Russia is not using massive air support (as it has been happening so far), we may have another kupiansk; not the end of the war.
How reliable is that blogger?, do we we have any "information" about the other side of the hill or just names on the map?
To advance while covering your flank with a river is (kindergarden tactics) an evidently good idea, so evident that Russia "should have" prepared for it. Lack of troops, again?; the Stavka took no action at Kupiansk.

I cannot remember that Davydid Brid was any kind of "key" location when Russia retook it...
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by erowind »

caltrek wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:43 pm ^^^ Oh S__t.

That is much higher than the 1 to 2% chance a lot of "forecasters" have been offering. Although 1 to 2% may be overly optimistic, I do think that there is a lot of poker-faced bluffing going on. Neither side really wants an escalated nuclear war. Yet, neither side really wants to back down. It will be like OMG they are really getting serious, to OMG it is really going to happen, to the announcement of a sudden diplomatic breakthrough with face saving conditions for both sides.

Of course, part of the bluffing is the whole "Putin is a mad man" routine. The whole point of the bluff being to frighten and intimidate.

That is why those that oppose capitulation are right. Once you give in to nuclear blackmail, it is never going to end. On the other hand, wise men like Chomksy also have a point, negotiations are much to be desired. As I have earlier expressed, I really don't want to see civilization as we know it end because a "real estate deal" goes bad.
For as much as I haven't replied to everything, trust me I tried but once I spent an hour writing I realized I spent too much time on the forum for the day. It's not like when I was a teenager anymore for better and worse. But for everything I haven't responded to; I mostly mirror your sentiment here. I really don't want to see nuclear war either and that's a big part of why I became more active in this thread lately.

More war doesn't solve this. The time to deescalate is now.

The only thing I disagree on is the giving into nuclear blackmail thing if it implies nuclear retaliation is justified. It's not and never will be. I'd rather Russia, The US, or China let loose their entire arsenals and no one else fires a single shot than retaliate. (This is still awful and must be prevented of course!!!) An exchange of fire will always be worse than just taking the hit for the species, future generations, and ourselves. I don't believe in pacifism broadly but with nuclear weapons it is the only ethical and self-preserving course of action. I would rather live under tyranny to fight another day than destroy the planet for 10s of thousands of years. That said. Our country should be investing however many billions are necessary to build nuclear missile defense capabilities and distributing that equipment to every country that asks for it handedly NATO or not. Nullification and eventual disarmament of nuclear weapons is possible our cultures have simply chosen MAD because they are mad.

Defensive offensive capabilities that are controlled by an international nuclear and weapons of mass destruction enforcement agency would be nice too. Maybe those hypothetical orbital tungsten kinetic bombardment platforms could be put to use. At least until we get our senses together it would be nice if very small yield highly accurate non-radioactive deterrence existed that was capable of precisely knocking out nuclear military installations globally. (This is a complete pipe dream, no international body in this climate will organize this, but maybe one day it could be used on some lagging rouge state. It would have to be headed by a genuinely democratic body like the UN but without the security council.)

There is really no excuse that we're spending over half a trillion dollars on updating nuclear offensive capabilities yet are incapable of intercepting 99% of incoming strikes.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57240
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