Ukraine War Watch Thread

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raklian
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by raklian »

ibm9000 wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:46 pm
The Guardian view on the forgotten Rohingya refugees: lives without futures.
(Bad lack for the baby-seals, this is the 'Save the dolphins' year).

ibm9000, please stay within the topic of this thread. If you wish to discuss a matter outside of Ukraine, please use the appropriate thread or create one if it doesn't exist. This is not the first time I've asked you. :roll:
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

To understand this war, you have to understand war. To understand its consequences, I think it is a good idea to have a look at past consequences of war, any war.
...and the consequences for Ukrainians and Europeans.
Do you mean than China and the States are completely unrelated to this topic?
(I would say Ukrainians are Europeans).
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

ibm9000 wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:56 pm
I am more interested in understanding this war and the consequences for...
To understand this war, you have to understand war. To understand consequences, I think it is a good idea to have a look at past consequences of war, any war.
...
I don't disagree with you. The point that you keep missing is that is why we have a history section to this forum. A place where historical events can be examined and lessons extracted from a discussion of those events. So, my argument with you is concerning the best way to go about looking "at past consequences of war". Not whether we should look toward history to explore such questions.

Again, if we are going to discuss the Ukraine, then let us discuss the Ukraine. If we are going to discuss Iraq, then let us discuss Iraq. What I don't think we need to do is clutter up this thread with a discussion of Iraq and nothing but Iraq. We are then faced with either letting false equivalencies being stated without rebuttal or further context; or diverting our discussion away from the Ukraine within a thread dedicated to examining the present war in that country. Methodologically, that just does not make sense.

Now if you think my assessment as to false equivalencies is incorrect, then take that up in the Iraq thread, not here. Why?

Because, in part and as I have said before, that point has already been made in prior pages of this thread and/or it will emerge naturally within a thread dedicated to Iraq. A proper and detailed discussion of how the invasion of Iraq relates to present circumstances belongs in a thread concerning Iraq. Period.
Don't mourn, organize.

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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

ibm9000 wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:56 pm To understand this war, you have to understand war. To understand its consequences, I think it is a good idea to have a look at past consequences of war, any war.
...and the consequences for Ukrainians and Europeans.
Do you mean than China and the States are completely unrelated to this topic?
(I would say Ukrainians are Europeans).
No, but again we have threads dedicated toward discussing China, threads dedicated to discussing the United States, and even threads dedicated to relations between the United States and China. So a lot of discussion regarding that relationship can and should be carried out in those threads. For example, we have a thread dedicated to discussion of NATO, a treaty organization that involves United States membership. I started that thread because understanding NATO is a very important aspect of understanding the present conflict. Having a separate thread on NATO allows for a more focused discussion of topic, while allowing a more general overview of the progress of the war in the Ukraine to proceed within this thread.

Honestly, I do not understand why you are having such a difficulty understanding the desirability of this approach. Now, if you started getting a lot of "likes" for your position (that is comments in defense of your approach), and I started getting a lot of negative feedback from the moderators of this forum, I would reconsider my position. Since that does not seem to be the case...
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Polish Ambassador to France: Poland will be forced to enter war if Ukraine fails to defend itself
Source: Ukrainska Pravda

Poland’s Ambassador to France Jan Emeryk Rościszewski said in an interview that a situation could arise in which Poland would have to enter the war. The embassy urged audiences to refrain from sensationalising his words.

Quote from Rościszewski: "It is not NATO, Poland or Slovakia that are mounting ever more pressure, but Russia, which has invaded Ukraine. Russia, which is seizing its territories. Russia, which is killing its people. And Russia, which is abducting Ukrainian children.

Therefore, either Ukraine will defend its independence today, or we will have to enter this conflict. Because our main values, which were the basis of our civilization and our culture will be threatened. Therefore, we will have no choice but to enter the conflict."

Details: Following the ambassador’s remark, Poland’s Embassy in France issued a statement saying that it has been interpreted by some media "out of context".


Read more: https://www.yahoo.com/news/polish-ambas ... 21342.html
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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...within the topic of this thread.
It would seem that my scope of this topic is a bit wider.
Peace proposal from China, off topic? America arms sales, off topic?

I have made references to Indochina and the Pentagon Papers, that war seems to be all right, for some reason.

I am not here for the likes, some comments seem to forget that any invasion ever happened before.
...a situation could arise in which Poland would have to enter the war.
Is that a threat?, or it really depends from what side the comment is coming?
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raklian
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by raklian »

ibm9000 wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 11:06 pm
...within the topic of this thread.
It would seem that my scope of this topic is a bit wider.
Peace proposal from China, off topic? America arms sales, off topic?

I have made references to Indochina and the Pentagon Papers, that war seems to be all right, for some reason.

I am not here for the likes, some comments seem to forget that any invasion ever happened before.
Don't make this more difficult than it needs to be, trying to put in the last word, or I might think you're not taking my warning seriously. Please take the chance to heed it. I'd like to avoid doing something I don't want to do as a moderator if I can help it. :|
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

- Yes, you are right, someone has to have the last word.

- Everyone can stop reading as soon as they find the word "Iraq"; they can even skip the post because it is my post.

- Having only one opinion would make things a lot easier, if that is the point; and yes, this is off topic.

But, what are exactly the limits of this topic?, why I cannot mention the ACW even if I think that it is the same situation.
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raklian
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by raklian »

ibm9000 wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 12:40 am - Yes, you are right, someone has to have the last word.

- Everyone can stop reading as soon as they find the word "Iraq"; they can even skip the post because it is my post.

- Having only one opinion would make things a lot easier, if that is the point; and yes, this is off topic.

But, what are exactly the limits of this topic?, why I cannot mention the ACW even if I think that it is the same situation.
My instruction wasn't that ambiguous. I'll say it again. Stay on the topic of Ukraine's war with Russia without making references to other concurrent or historical events unless there is a clear logical or chronological sequence tying them together. Making comparisons to other events to argue a point or a personal opinion is straying from the spirit of this thread and confusing to readers who arrive here for the first time, so that should be better discussed at a different thread with the appropriate topic. There is no issue if you create your own and continue on with what you left off here. I'm sure there will be some of us who will be more than glad to debate/discuss with you on this issue over there without restrictions. I urge you to make it easier on yourself and us so that we can actually move on to an acceptable compromise and end this persistent issue once and for all.
To know is essentially the same as not knowing. The only thing that occurs is the rearrangement of atoms in your brain.
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

One year into the war in Ukraine, it has become clear that neither side is strong enough to win the war nor weak enough to sue for peace. (As long as we keep providing the weapons).
Ukraine would need to recover roughly twice as much territory as it was able to (by being abandoned by Russia) last year, just to get back the lands conquered since the 2022 invasion.
Russia has also been able to stabilize its economy, which the IMF projects will do better this year than the UK's or Germany's. There is now a huge world economy that does not include the West, and Russia can swim in those waters freely. (Are we going to tell the World what to do?).
So, what is the path forward? In the short run, there is only one answer for the West and its allies... give Ukraine more weapons and money. (Like WWI, the next one (offensive) is the right one). Most wars end in negotiations. This one is unlikely to be different. The task for the West is to ensure that Ukraine has enough success and momentum on the battlefield that it enters those negotiations with a very strong hand. (Or not, but let the killing go on).
Ukraine's government is spending more than double what it takes in, thanks to Western aid. (Vietnam, and then the US left). Are we letting Ukraine get destroyed in order to save it?
CNN.
Let’s say that you own a house and it has ten rooms. And let’s say that I barge in and take two of those rooms away, and I wreck those rooms. And, from those two rooms, I’m wrecking your other eight rooms and you’re trying to beat me back. You’re trying to evict me from the two rooms. You push out a little corner, you push out another corner, maybe. But I’m still there and I’m still wrecking. And the thing is, you need your house. That’s where you live. It’s your house and you don’t have another. Me, I’ve got another house, and my other house has a thousand rooms. And, so, if I wreck your house, are you winning or am I winning?
At peak, the Ukrainians were firing upward of ninety thousand artillery shells a month. U.S. monthly production of artillery shells is fifteen thousand. With all our allies thrown in, you get another fifteen thousand, at the highest estimates. So you can do thirty thousand in the production of artillery shells while expending ninety thousand a month. We haven’t ramped up. We’re just drawing down the stocks. And you know what? We’re running out.
The New Yorker.
Ukrainians may be better off defining victory as accession to the European Union rather than a complete recapture of all Ukrainian territory.
Stephen Kotkin.
A new poll suggests that Russia’s war on Ukraine has consolidated ‘the West;’ European and American citizens hold many views in common about major global questions.
Europeans and Americans agree they should help Ukraine to win, that Russia is their avowed adversary, and that the coming global order will most likely be defined by two blocs led respectively by the US and China.
In contrast, citizens in China, India, and Turkiye prefer a quick end to the war even if Ukraine has to concede territory.
People in these non-Western countries, and in Russia, also consider the emergence of a multipolar world order to be more probable than a bipolar arrangement.
Western decision-makers should take into account that the consolidation of the West is taking place in an increasingly divided post-Western world; and that emerging powers such as India and Turkiye will act on their own terms and resist being caught in a battle between America and China.
The ECFR Council.

Is this thread only about the consequences for Europe? (The United States has a $19 billion backlog of arms delivery to Taiwan).
There are more than those fantasy-tweets (even if they are not around here that often now),, and things are not getting any better.
...unless there is a clear logical (the spirit of this thread) or chronological sequence tying them together.
If by "spirit" you mean "is dedicated to", 'the backlog of arms delivery', due to the war in Ukraine, is on topic? The thread is: "Ukraine War Watch", so the war in Ukraine; and I don't think the word "spirit" was the best option, but I do think there is a lot of ambiguity.
The situation in Taiwan now, due to that backlog, belongs only to a China/Taiwan thread? Only to this one as a consequence of this war? I think it belongs to both, and I think we are going to agree to differ. We might agree about how deep into the other conflict we should go here, again, your opinion about how much or my opinion about it; as clear for you as it is for me. Censorship after, not before.

(Unless someone can guide me into the right path to the "spirit").
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