Ukraine War Watch Thread

[ººº]

The only way I see this ending is for Russia to declare total war and "human wave" Ukraine WW2-style (very unlikely) or prolong the war until Ukraine surrenders/reach a ceasefire like Korea or Cyprus.

[Xyls]

^ That's not gonna happen.

[caltrek]

Russia Vs. Ukraine: What Does Victory Look Like? – Analysis
by Nataliya Butyrska
January 3, 2022

Introduction:

(Observer Research Foundation via Eurasia Review) With no negotiations in sight and renewed backing from the West, the Russia-Ukraine War is still far from over.

The Russian-Ukrainian war has entered a new phase.

During the 10 months of war, Ukraine has managed to recover part of its territories occupied by Russia, and also to prevent the collapse of the economy. Winter has not halted military operations. The Ukrainian military leadership stresses that the war cannot be put on pause, because it will allow Russia to accumulate additional resources for new offensives in the spring. Therefore, the steady supply of weapons and the ability to raise more resources will determine the course of the war in the next few months.

The successful passage of winter, both for the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian state in general, largely depends on the financial and military support of partners. During the 10 months of the war, world leaders across the globe faced its consequences—mainly rising prices for energy resources and food products. This increases the negative pressure on the governments of different countries, even those that are determined to provide further financial and military support to Ukraine. Last week, Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the United States (US)—his first foreign visit since the Russian aggression began in February last year.

President Zelenskyy’s visit to the US pursued important goals. First, to ensure further political, military-technical and financial support to Ukraine. Secondly, to coordinate the strategy and tactics of confronting Russia on the military front as well as in the political and diplomatic sphere.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/03012023 ... analysis/

[Time_Traveller]

Why Putin has no path to victory in Ukraine this year.

3 January 2023

months. For Russia’s dictator, Vladimir Putin, what is not in store is any kind of victory in his war against Ukraine, because he has no path to victory.

Back in February of 2022, Putin gathered his Security Council to appear to poll them on one question, should Russia declare that the “Donetsk People’s Republic” and the “Luhansk People’s Republic” are independent states in their own right?

It was pure theatre and the outcome was predetermined. But that fateful meeting set the stage for a larger war because of one deliberate ambiguity – Russia was not fully in control of these two Ukrainian regions since its preliminary invasion in 2014. However, it was the whole of them both that Putin decided would no longer be considered, by Russia, to be a part of Ukraine. So this mean that war was coming, in order to at least take the remainder of Luhansk and Donetsk.

As we saw a few days later, when Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, Putin had much larger aims. Over the last ten months, those aims have since been constantly dialled back.

Putin’s desire to take control over the whole of Ukraine through the swift capture of the capital, Kyiv, was defeated. His desire to take Kharkiv in the northeast was also defeated. His desire to freeze Ukraine’s export capabilities was defeated with the recapture of Snake Island. What now remains of his grand 2022 invasion plans is a brutal war in those same two eastern regions, along with partial control of two southern regions, those of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which give Russia a land bridge to occupied Crimea.

https://bylinetimes.com/2023/01/03/why- ... this-year/

[raklian]

The eyes.

[firestar464]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 5e1c986203

Hmmm...interesting. Also worried that House will cut funding to Ukraine eventually.

[ibm9000]

The AMX-10 RC is not a tank and is far away from being a MBT.

By the way...
There is a Russian Official Statement saying that they can confirm "a lot" of enemy casualties in a recent attack; Ukraine claims two wounded. Probably, they sent a few Forensic Teams over the top.

[Xyls]

^ Sure Jan.

[raklian]

Guys, let's keep this thread civil. If you have nothing productive to say, save your energy for better things.

[weatheriscool]

Germany to supply around 40 armored carriers to Ukraine
Source: AP

today

BERLIN (AP) — Germany aims to supply around 40 Marder armored personnel carriers to Ukraine in this year’s first quarter, the government said Friday.

Officials gave more details of the plan, which marks another notable shift forward in Germany’s weapons deliveries to Ukraine, after Germany announced its intention to send the Marder APCs following a phone call between Chancellor Olaf Scholz and U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday.

“These 40 vehicles should be ready in the first quarter already so that they can be handed over to Ukraine,” Scholz’s spokesman, Steffen Hebestreit, told reporters in Berlin. Germany plans to train Ukrainian forces to use the vehicles, and Hebestreit said experts expect that process to take around eight weeks.

Germany has already given significant military aid, including howitzers, Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns and an IRIS-T surface-to-air missile system, with three more of those set to follow this year.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... ca4a048ffb