Ukraine War Watch Thread

[funkervogt]

It has yet to be seen.

The "spirit of 1989" will not return, regardless of anything what may still happen in Ukraine. This spirit, as well as "End of History" idea, was a product of western triumphalism at the end of Cold War (it was so tempting to think that this "perfect state" would last forever and to "cancel" any further changes). This naive concept is increasingly out of touch with our real world, and history (I mean real history) doesn't "end" by command, especially by command of philosophers...

Not everyone during the 1990s thought the triumphalism would persist. Research "the Unipolar Moment."
https://thediplomat.com/2016/04/china-r ... ar-moment/

Also, Francis Fukuyama's 1992 declaration that the "End of History" had arrived was somewhat misunderstood by people.
https://www.yahoo.com/video/fukuyama-en ... 37504.html

The core of his thesis was that the liberal democratic/mixed economic politico-economic system had proven itself superior to all other systems, and that it was only a matter of time before it encompassed the whole world. That reality clearly has not yet arrived, though there's still a chance it could in the long run. However, I see three major challenges to its rise:

1) Future success of the Chinese model. Instead of democratic, it is technocratic and controlled by a highly competent oligarchy. Citizens willingly trade political freedoms like free speech and the right to vote for higher standards of living.

2) Decline of liberal democracy in the West. In America, being a "liberal" and supporting the principles of "liberal democracy" are two different things, and the gulf is widening. And of course, conservatives are also losing faith in democratic governance and are becoming more tribal.

3) AGI takeover. In such a world, it wouldn't make sense to let humans have anything more than a symbolic say over governance, the economy, or anything important, really. It would be like us giving chimps the right to vote and own real estate today.

[ibm9000]

According to unconfirmed reports...
Ukrainian tanks are about to attack Moscow.

Yes, in combat, soldiers surrender, soldiers from both sides. Yes, again, you do retreat to defensible positions. Hostages?, have you been interviewing... how many of them? When an army retreats, a lot of people retreat with it. Yes, the besieging army will offer terms -they want to redeploy those troops, they don't want to spent more ammo there and, maybe, they want that real state now- and the besieged army will ask for them -after a time, what's the point; unless we are talking about Camerone. In a few hours, you prepare a position, in a couple of days you do a decent job, in a week... sorry, how long has that fighting going on? That is what troops -those not at the front line at that moment- do, prepare positions and fall-back positions; any builders in that town? Morale was... what?, again, how many interviews?

You are using the wrong word, taking that place would be a tactical success, just another town. A northern armoured thrust towards Kramatorsk together with another one coming from the south would probably have strategic consequences, but that is what the Stavka has decided not to do.
I still think that the advance on Kiev was just a bargaining chit.

If anybody starts talking about the heroes of Severodonetsk, I would be asking: what heroes?, do we even know if they are doing a decent job?

Oh!, and according to unconfirmed reports, the Earth is flat.

[Certain Russian user]

According to unconfirmed reports...
Ukrainian tanks are about to attack Moscow.
...
Oh!, and according to unconfirmed reports, the Earth is flat.

Why so nervous? And yes, if you read this thread since late february, there are a lot of moronic "Ukrainian tanks are about to attack Moscow" - style posts here.

Yes, in combat, soldiers surrender, soldiers from both sides.

The main question is "how much", right? In Mariupol, ALL Ukrainian troops eventually surrendered (or "were evacuated", as it war worded in Ukrainian media). The same will eventually happen in Severodonetsk. Those trapped in industrial area are well aware of that. They will either die or surrender, there is no any third option.

Hostages?

Yes, hostages. In Mariupol, civilians were lured / dragged to Azovstal, then not allowed to leave, then their "defenders" tried to trade them for food (15 civilians per ton). That's the truth of life...

[caltrek]

^^^Vladimir Putin is holding all of Ukraine hostage. Russian forces need to withdraw from Ukraine now. It was the Russian army invasion that created these hostage situations. Pro-Russian commentators need to pull their heads out of certain body orifices and acknowledge what is actually going on in the world.

[Certain Russian user]

Not everyone during the 1990s thought the triumphalism would persist. Research "the Unipolar Moment."
https://thediplomat.com/2016/04/china-r ... ar-moment/

OK, thanks for the link, this was interesting (though I'm almost entirely disagree).

In turn, here is another piece of text, which IMHO more accurately reflects today's reality (sorry in advance for rough translation):

American hegemony is over. Whatever the outcome of current conflict, major countries have received a clear image of how this "unipolarity" worked and how, in relation to Russia, these transmission belts were set in motion and thereby revealed. In the coming years they will do everything to ensure that to cut them off. The questions we're now asking ourselves: about technological, financial, digital, etc. sovereignty — are now being asked in every country that aspires for at least some independence in the 21st century. World trade will change: now that unilateral sanctions and asset seizures have been used as weapons, no one will believe that the world of dollar, digital platforms and "British law" is a "safe haven". By attacking us they (i.e. West) had the only chance to save this mechanism of control - if this "sanctions blitzkrieg" worked. But it failed, and in the struggle for attrition, the chances are no longer for those who have iPhones and dollars, but for those who have food, oil and army.

Globalism stood on three pillars: the dollar as the world's reserve currency, the US and NATO armies as the most powerful and expensive military machine in the world, and digital infrastructure as the main communication system controlled from a single center. In the coming years, there will be a rebalancing along all these lines: the role of the dollar will fall, countries will strengthen their defense capabilities, and digital and technological sovereignty will become one of the key priorities for everyone - not just us.

What is happening now? There is a preparation for a collision of new rising powers with the remnants of the old world order. Russia acted as a skirmisher, and no wonder that all the bumps are now falling on us. But this is already clear that we will withstand. And when this becomes obvious to everyone, the world will learn to say "no" to Americans. Moreover, Europe will be the first to understand this, which is now, with a gnashing of teeth, aware of the fact that the proxy war against Russia is being waged almost entirely at their expense and against their own vital interests.

What do we count on in this confrontation? First, on ourselves. We will not retreat: neither in Ukraine, nor in global politics. Second, on the strength and wisdom of leaders and peoples of the non-Western world who have adopted the principles of openness, cooperation and free trade, and who will not let them to be destroyed by those who proclaimed and promoted them for as long as it was beneficial for them. Third, on the historical inevitability - the future belongs to those who develop faster than the rest of the world, and today this is not the West at all.

Our experience of survival and development in the face of a military conflict and external pressure will be important and useful not only for us. Those decisions that we make, those technologies that we develop and apply - in all areas, from defense and security to social policy and business - will later become a ready-made package for any country striving to not nominal, but real sovereignty. And we will gladly share them in order to make the world freer, fairer, more equal and multipolar in the full sense of the word. Let's do it together.

[caltrek]

I guess Russia wants to end Western hegemony so that it can better foster the cause of creating famine throughout the world.

Russia Putting World at the Risk of Famine, EU Top Diplomat Warns
June 18, 2022

Introduction:

(AFP via The Times of Israel) BRUSSELS, Belgium — Russia is putting the world at risk of famine through its blockade of Ukraine’s shipments of grains and restrictions on its own exports, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Saturday.

The threat to food security and a “battle of narrative” with Russia on Western-imposed sanctions on Moscow over Ukraine will dominate European Union foreign ministers’ talks in Luxembourg on Monday.

“We are ready to work with the UN and our partners to prevent any unwanted impact on global food security,” Borrell said in an article published on his official blog.

“Russia’s conscious political choice is to weaponize grain exports and use them as a tool for blackmail against anyone that opposes its aggression in Ukraine,” Borrell said.

“Russia turned the Black Sea into a war zone, blocking shipments of grain and fertilizer from Ukraine but also affecting Russian merchant shipping. Russia is also applying quotas and taxes on its grain exports,” he added.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-pu ... mat-warns/

[weatheriscool]

Russia frees captive medic who filmed Mariupol's horror
Source: AP

By VASILISA STEPANENKO and LORI HINNANT

TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — A celebrated Ukrainian medic whose footage was smuggled out of the besieged city of Mariupol by an Associated Press team was freed by Russian forces on Friday, three months after she was taken captive on the streets of the city.

Yuliia Paievska is known in Ukraine as Taira, a nickname she chose in the World of Warcraft video game. Using a body camera, she recorded 256 gigabytes of her team’s efforts over two weeks to save the wounded, including both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers.

She transferred the clips to an Associated Press team, the last international journalists in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, one of whom fled with it embedded in a tampon on March 15. Taira and a colleague were taken prisoner by Russian forces on March 16, the same day a Russian airstrike hit a theater in the city center, killing around 600 people, according to an Associated Press investigation.

“It was such a great sense of relief. Those sound like such ordinary words, and I don’t even know what to say,” her husband, Vadim Puzanov, told The Associated Press late Friday, breathing deeply to contain his emotion. Puzanov said he spoke by phone with Taira, who was en route to a Kyiv hospital, and feared for her health.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 43385bb7fe

[weatheriscool]

French president visits Kyiv suburb, decries 'massacre'
Source: AP

By DAVID KEYTON, JOHN LEICESTER and SYLVIE CORBET

IRPIN, Ukraine (AP) — French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday that there are signs of war crimes in a Kyiv suburb following “massacres” by Russian forces.

He spoke in the town of Irpin while on a visit with the German, Italian and Romanian leaders to show support for Ukraine. He denounced the “barbarism” of the attacks that devastated the town, and praised the courage of residents of Irpin and other Kyiv region towns who held back Russians forces from attacking the capital.

The four European leaders arrived earlier in Kyiv to the sound of air raid sirens as they made a high-profile show of collective European support for the Ukrainian people as they resist Russia’s invasion.

The visit, which includes a planned meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, carries heavy symbolic weight given that the three Western European powers have faced criticism for not providing Ukraine with the scale of weaponry that Zelenskyy has been asking for.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... de23b52f8e

[ibm9000]

"Why so nervous? And yes, if you read this thread since late February, there are a lot of moronic..." Sorry, are you calling your own post "moronic"? "Unconfirmed reports" or "fairy tales" sound a bit like the same thing.

I thought the question was Severodonetsk... and I am afraid there is a third option, they may slip away, it has happened many times in History; even a fourth one, -but I don't think this one is going to happen- a counterattack, a real one.

Again, we were talking about Severodonetsk... so, how many interviews, please?

[ibm9000]

Pity no French President visited Fallujah...

And the last coup d'etat in Turkey was stopped neither by twitter nor by "the people", so I don't know what courage of what residents hold back what,
but at least, he is a President, he is supposed to say things like that.