Ukraine War Watch Thread

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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

Madoff as your mechanic.

You trust that the mechanic repairing the brakes is going to do a good job. At least, that he is going to jail once you are dead.

How responsible is a PM who is betting his country on the goodwill of someone else?

How may rounds of ammo is he going to get if suddenly there is a coup d'etat in Saudi Arabia, an escalation around Taiwan or between Iraq-Iran? What if US have to request a favour from Russia? (In 1971 Nixon hinted China to attack India).
Yes, there could be another scenario where R. has to pull back; I don't think "bread revolts" is going to be one of them.

Ukraine lost the war.
In any one of those situations it has to surrender, instead of negotiate. To be precise, those negotiations are going to be far, far away from even.

Let's say that in July U. has 200 of those western and 200 more Soviet-era tanks ready (and enough ammo, oil, SAM, pontoons... for how long?) to launch an offensive. Ukraine did not collapse, why R. is going to?, what objective information do we have to affirm that a Russian collapse is the only possibility? U. claims 1.000 tanks, are those 400 immortal?
Russia may well cede 20 or even 50km (that big arrow on a map) while pummeling the advancing troops, R. still has planes, artillery and tanks. Maybe not even that, as U. has to use them to plug holes in the line.

Ukraine has lost the war.
It has no ammo (of its own) and if (when?) that offensive fails, what then?, another 6 months of R. grinding forward? US already gave an ultimatum.
Betting on one card and piling corpses...

Sanctions on Russia... the war goes on.
No negotiations... the war goes on.
Weapons for Ukraine... the war goes on.
Zelensky should have been fighting for serious negotiations, not for promises.

I am going to bet now.
-None of those alternative scenarios is going to happen.
-The offensive will fail.
-US will tell Zelensky to reach an agreement.
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funkervogt
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

I want to bump this gloomy article from a month ago, when we were fearing the massive Russian counterattack that might come on the first anniversary of the invasion.
Another concern is that, while Russian forces have performed abysmally – thwarted by low troop morale, inadequate numbers, badly maintained equipment, clumsy tactics, substandard battle discipline, poor logistics, the stiffest Ukrainian resistance and an unexpectedly united effort from the West – some Ukrainian reports from the front indicate the Russians have been learning hard lessons and making much needed improvements, at least at the level of battle tactics and discipline. The Russian army was bleeding before, but it appointed new commanders and – as in the Second World War – may be recovering from its earlier disasters.

We must therefore be prepared for significant Russian gains in the coming weeks. We need to be realistic about how bad things could be – otherwise the shock risks dislodging Western resolve. The opposite occurred last summer and autumn, as flagging support in parts of Europe and the US was galvanised by Ukrainian success.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/vladimir-put ... 00881.html

The West's worst fears about a Russian resurgence failed to materialize. They suffered a serious defeat attacking the town of Vuhledar, and have made progress capturing Bakhmut only at terrible cost. Ukrainian troops continue to say the Russians are suffering from serious problems with tactics and morale, and Russian forces continue arriving at the front lines with obsolete equipment.
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funkervogt
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

In another sign of its worsening supply problems, the Russian Army sent a truly weird "Frankenstein tank" to fight in Ukraine, composed of a machine gun turret removed from a boat and welded onto the roof of an obsolete light tank.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-forc ... 57713.html

I think this gives us a glimpse of what a horrible war with AI will lead to if it lasts long enough.
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

They suffered a serious defeat attacking the town of Vuhledar, and have made progress capturing Bakhmut only at terrible cost. Ukrainian troops continue to say...
How terrible exactly, they lost 1.000 sq km, maybe?
At a terrible cost of Ukrainian lives?
Anyone is reading what Russian troops are saying about the other side of the hill?, because we told them to aim before firing.
I wouldn't call a not-the-latest thermal sight "obsolete".
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

Vuhledar, a failed attack.

Because Russia was attacking, Ukraine did not reconquer anything.
U. had to bring reserves, correct? 5.000 men?, 10.000? That's one brick less in the build up for the offensive, was U. using American rounds of artillery?, missiles?
We are all familiar with the term Pyrrhic Victory, correct? Ten attacks like this (and R. is still attacking around Kreminna, correct?) and U. has to go through 100.000 men, or 50.000, and casualties and they are not training, nor resting and using a lot of ammo, correct?
I still read that R. is using 20.000 artillery rounds a day and U. 5.000, we agree that R. has more men (even if not that million, 97%, it was?) and tanks and artillery... but R. is suffering more casualties?, because U. says so?

This spoiling attacks, this grinding could eat up the U. army. Any need for a R. offensive? Yes, a lot of R. casualties... who can take more?

There is no U. counteroffensive against Bakhmut, it doesn't have the capability but is going to get it with 300 tanks? If Bakhmut is not that important, why is defending it? Enough troops to hold, but nothing else? R. is still, slowly, gaining ground, at what price for U. should be the question.
Even if Vuhledar has been a failed attack, in a war.
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

Ukraine's efforts to resupply its troops defending the beleaguered eastern town of Bakhmut are being hampered by mud caused by an early spring thaw, British military intelligence believes.
The Telegraph.

So, the story is that Russia didn't know about winter, Ukraine doesn't know about thaw and that we must believe everything western media says.
In another sign of its worsening supply problems...
Has anyone ever seen any photograph of a Sherman with sandbags piled up at the front?
weatheriscool
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by weatheriscool »

Mass strikes on Ukraine hit Kyiv and knock out power in Odesa and Kharkiv
Source: The Guardian
Volleys of Russian missiles struck targets across Ukraine early on Thursday, including Kyiv, the Black Sea port of Odesa and the second city of Kharkiv, knocking out power to several areas, regional officials said.

The governor of Odesa region, Maksym Marchenko, said on Telegram that a mass missile attack had hit an energy facility in the port city, cutting power. Residential areas were also hit, but no casualties were immediately reported.

Kharkiv regional governor Oleh Synehubov said the city and region had been hit by 15 strikes, with targets including infrastructure. Other strikes were reported in the central city of Dnipro and regions throughout the country.

Late on Wednesday, Ukraine’s military said it had managed to push back intense Russian attacks on the city of Bakhmut despite a Russian claim of control over its eastern half.
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... sa-kharkiv
Xyls
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Xyls »

I am somewhat puzzled by what is going on in Bakhmut at the moment. It seems that Ukraine is taking heavier losses now than seems justifiable. While they have largely managed to destroy a huge brunt of Wagner it seems they are beginning to take increased casualties due to some sort of stubborness to retreat.

Ukraine should re-engage in the giving up space for time tactic and reconsolidate outside the city. Although the Ukrainians could be signalling they are going to defend Bakhmut as part of a diversion for preparing counteroffensive operations. But I don't think that justifies their position in Bakhmut at the moment.

I understand the idea of people died here and sunk cost of lives. However, like Mariupol... Bakhmut has been a major success in that it delayed Russia being able to organize anywhere else. They should let the city go and reconsolidate to a better position. Wagner is pretty much destroyed and with Western weaponry coming in they should look to get ready to advance on Svatove or Zaporizhizia instead...
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ibm9000
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by ibm9000 »

I am somewhat puzzled...
Zelensky disagrees with you. Once Bakhmut falls, they will take (attack) Kramatorsk.
Preparing a counter offensive? Maybe you could tell us why Ukraine has not launched that attack against Bakhmut. It is important, the Russians are there and Ukraine is loosing.
How much is U. loosing? Verdun: the Germans, the attacker, inflicted more casualties on the entrenched (and forts) defender.
You are a kind of saying that Hitler was a genius, you declare every town a fortress and, like Vicksburg, you loose the army and the fortress. I think to remember that, while, slowly, eliminating any defenders there, they were advancing around Kherson. Yes, R. had to detach forces, U. lost those forces.
Pretty much destroyed? Do you have any actual numbers or just believe western propaganda? Like the paras at Hostomel?, let's see if in a week or too they are still fighting.
Coming... It is coming... Is that the only hope?, the only capability they have?, they should negotiate a peace then.
The Russian Army Is Running Out Of Tanks For The War In Ukraine. These 60-Year-Old T-62s Are Proof.
Forbes. May 25, 2022.
It seems that Russia has been "running out" of tanks for 10 months.


Amazonia: Norway +$498 millions; Germany +$200 millions; US +$50 millions. Lula told Biden that Brazil is not joining the war (no 105 ammo for the Leopard I).


Well, it seems that Ukraine is going to get less Leopard 2, later than promised and piecemeal; Abrams even later on and Leopard 1 maybe next year. I said July, US said Autumn, a bit too soon to say that US is going to forget about it because it's too late, but it's starting to look like a lacklustre offensive. Of course, Russia has no capabilities at all (not even promises) and is going to (kindly) do nothing until then; whenever "then" is.
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by caltrek »

ibm9000 wrote: Tue Mar 07, 2023 12:26 pm
Ukraine's efforts to resupply its troops defending the beleaguered eastern town of Bakhmut are being hampered by mud caused by an early spring thaw, British military intelligence believes.
The Telegraph.

So, the story is that Russia didn't know about winter, Ukraine doesn't know about thaw and that we must believe everything western media says.
This is an oversimplification. It is not just "knowing about winter." It also involves a complicated mix of weather forecasting, knowledge of local soil conditions and topography, assessment of capabilities relative to one's opponent, etc.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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