Ukraine War Watch Thread

[wjfox]

I don't see how Russia can win this now.

[wjfox]

[ibm9000]

I don't see how Russia can win this now.

Because of one explosion in one bridge?

[caltrek]

I don't see how Russia can win this now.

Perhaps not, but I do see how everybody could end up losing, and I do mean everybody.

[caltrek]

Here is a brief analysis on the Kirch Strait Bridge attack supplied by The Drive:

A massive fire is burning on the Kirch Strait Bridge that connects Russia to Crimea Saturday morning, with images showing multiple train cars fully engulfed and two spans of the road bridge in the water.

Traffic on the bridge, a critical strategic artery for Russian forces in Crimea amid its war in Ukraine, has reportedly been halted as heavy flames and black smoke spew from a train carrying unknown cargo. Photos also show spans of both east and westbound lanes have collapsed into the water near the burning train.

The bridge cost billions to build after Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and has been one of Ukraine's top targets, although it lacked traditional weaponry capable of striking it from far away. Even the Pentagon has openly stated that it sees the bridge as a viable target for Ukrainian forces. Russia has deployed air defenses and decoy barges in an attempt to protect it from some kind of attack in recent months.

While this explosion could be an accident, it would be an incredibly convenient one for Ukraine and a catastrophic and embarrassing one for Russia.
...
There can be no doubt that this is a massive blow to Russian logistics for this war. That bridge was a critical link for the war effort. It has been taken out when Russia is supposedly starting a surge of forces with the risk to Crimea now being a very palpable thing. Whatever the cause, it is a huge development.

Read more here (including numerous Twitter feeds with many photos and videos): https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/e ... -to-crimea

[caltrek]

This was captioned on Twitter with this comment from Михайло Подоляк, who according to The Drive is the adviser to the Head of the Office of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy: "Everything illegal must be destroyed, everything stolen must be returned to Ukraine, everything occupied by Russia must be expelled."

The implication being that Crimea is now fair game.

[caltrek]

Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis

President Joe Biden said Thursday that the risk of nuclear “Armageddon” is at the highest level since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, as Russian officials speak of the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons after suffering massive setbacks in the eight-month invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking at a fundraiser for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin was “a guy I know fairly well” and the Russian leader was “not joking when he talks about the use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons.”

Biden added, “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” He suggested the threat from Putin is real “because his military is — you might say — significantly underperforming.”

U.S. officials for months have warned of the prospect that Russia could use weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine as it has faced a series of strategic setbacks on the battlefield, though Biden’s remarks marked the starkest warnings yet issued by the U.S. government about the nuclear stakes.

It was not immediately clear whether Biden was referring to any new assessment of Russian intentions. As recently as this week, though, U.S. officials have said they have seen no change to Russia’s nuclear forces that would require a change in the alert posture of U.S. nuclear forces.

More on Biden's remarks:

October 8, 2022

Extract:

(VOA via Eurasia Review) Speaking to Democratic donors, Biden said he and U.S. officials were still “trying to figure out Putin’s off-ramp” in Ukraine.

“Where does he find a way out?” Biden asked. “Where does he find himself in a position, he does not, not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia?”
…
“He was reinforcing what we have been saying, which is how seriously … we take these threats,” from Russia, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Air Force One when asked about Biden’s comments.

The president reiterated the U.S. would continue to support Ukraine.

Putin turned 70 Friday amid ingratiating congratulations from his inner circle and a plea from Orthodox Patriarch Kirill for all to pray for the health of the longest-serving paramount leader of Russia since Josef Stalin. Putin is grappling, however, with the gravest domestic crisis of his 23-year rule. Continuing battlefield defeats in Ukraine have increased dissent inside the Russian elite, while hundreds of thousands of Russians are fleeing his mobilization order.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/08102022 ... en-warns/

caltrek's comment: Also discussed in the article is a factoid relevant to a point I made earlier: “Over half of Ukraine’s currently fielded tank fleet potentially consists of captured vehicles.” If true, a stunning statistic.

[caltrek]

Exactly. Putin did this to himself with the nuclear blackmail something the West will never back down to. If the invasion had just started with him occupying Donbass instead of this greedy land grab he may of had a chance of getting something more like a peace agreement. However the incursions into Kherson and Zaporizhizia have shown this is nothing more than a land grab and there is no point in ever trying to appease him again. This war will continue until Russia is completely out of Ukraine at this point.

I think you both make a good counterpoint here to some of my comments regarding "off ramp." To use that metaphor, it sometimes seems as if every time Putin approaches a potential off ramp, he speeds up right on past rather than moving toward that off ramp. It may be a negotiating tactic, but it also serves to further escalate the situation. Related to that, but somewhat distinct is an earlier question I posed to another pro-negotiated settlement participant in this forum that has gone unanswered: how does one negotiate with someone who refuses to bargain in good faith?

What is especially alarming is that even the Biden administration seems to be acknowledging that they don't have good answers to these problems. Chomsky may or may not have a good point about the United States blowing an earlier opportunity to arrive at a negotiated settlement. At this point, that is water under the bridge. (No pun related to the Kirch Strait Bridge intended).

[caltrek]

Decrying 'Horrible Madness of War,' Irish MEPs Call for Diplomacy in Ukraine
by Jake Johnson
October 7, 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dreams)Two Irish members of the European Parliament on Thursday voted against a resolution calling for a massive increase in weapons shipments to Ukraine and blasted E.U. member nations over their refusal to pursue diplomatic initiatives to end Russia's devastating war.

In a fiery floor speech ahead of Thursday's vote on the resolution—which ultimately passed by an overwhelming margin of 504 to 26, with 36 abstentions—Irish MEP Clare Daly lamented that "practically nobody in this chamber is doing anything to prevent" the war in Ukraine from "quickly escalating into a wider horror," a nod at the growing risk of nuclear catastrophe as Russian President Vladimir Putin ramps up his threatening rhetoric.

"In fact, most people seem to get off on the fact that it's escalating," said Daly, an Independent. "And at this precise moment, of course, as usual, the voices challenging the rush to war are attacked and silenced, smeared as traitors, cronies, Putin puppets, Kremlin stooges, Russian agents."

"Frankly, it's pathetic," she continued. "And I don't make the comparison lightly, but the crudeness and cynicism of these slurs coming from mainstream E.U. parties might as well have been written by [Nazi war criminal] Hermann Göring, who infamously said that even though people never want war, they can be brought to war with threats and smears."

"This house should be ashamed of this debate," Daly added. "Words are being twisted, meanings subverted, and the truth turned on its head. Opposing the horrible madness of war is not anti-European, it's not anti-Ukrainian, it's not pro-Russian: it's common sense. The working class of Europe has nothing to gain from this war and everything to lose. And I find it laughable that those calling for arms to Ukraine never call for arms for the people of Palestine, or for the people of Yemen. Unlike you, I oppose all war. I want it stopped. I make no apology for that."

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... y-ukraine

caltrek's comment: Whether you agree with these sentiments or not, it does show that it is not just Erowind and Chomsky that are making a plea for what they regard as "common sense."

[ibm9000]

How does one negotiate with someone who refuses to bargain in good faith?

Can you prove the absence of good faith?

You never negotiate in "good faith, you just negotiate. Your point is not to reach "fairness", you are trying to get as much as you can and to give as little as you can. I don't call that "good faith".

BTW -I don't keep score, it seems that you do- have you been answering all my questions? I think this one was for me and I think to recall I gave you an answer (if not to your question): I don't serve at your pleasure. We give the opinions we want, we ask what we want, we answer what we want.
(Unless Big Brother intervenes).