Ukraine War Watch Thread

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wjfox
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Half Russian separatist force dead or wounded - UK

2 hours ago

Russian and Russian-backed separatist forces in the Donetsk region of Ukraine have suffered heavy casualties, according to UK intelligence officials.

They estimate the Donetsk militia alone has lost 55% of its original force.

Russian forces are focused on conquering all of neighbouring Luhansk, aiming to encircle the city of Lysychansk, say Ukrainian leaders.

Regional chief Serhiy Haidai said there had been "colossal destruction" in the city.

He said the situation in its sister city of Severodonetsk was "hell", and quoted the mayor as saying some 7,000-8,000 civilians remained there.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61891462
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funkervogt
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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American hegemony is over. Whatever the outcome of current conflict, major countries have received a clear image of how this "unipolarity" worked and how, in relation to Russia, these transmission belts were set in motion and thereby revealed. In the coming years they will do everything to ensure that to cut them off. The questions we're now asking ourselves: about technological, financial, digital, etc. sovereignty — are now being asked in every country that aspires for at least some independence in the 21st century. World trade will change: now that unilateral sanctions and asset seizures have been used as weapons, no one will believe that the world of dollar, digital platforms and "British law" is a "safe haven". By attacking us they (i.e. West) had the only chance to save this mechanism of control - if this "sanctions blitzkrieg" worked. But it failed, and in the struggle for attrition, the chances are no longer for those who have iPhones and dollars, but for those who have food, oil and army.

Globalism stood on three pillars: the dollar as the world's reserve currency, the US and NATO armies as the most powerful and expensive military machine in the world, and digital infrastructure as the main communication system controlled from a single center. In the coming years, there will be a rebalancing along all these lines: the role of the dollar will fall, countries will strengthen their defense capabilities, and digital and technological sovereignty will become one of the key priorities for everyone - not just us.

What is happening now? There is a preparation for a collision of new rising powers with the remnants of the old world order. Russia acted as a skirmisher, and no wonder that all the bumps are now falling on us. But this is already clear that we will withstand. And when this becomes obvious to everyone, the world will learn to say "no" to Americans. Moreover, Europe will be the first to understand this, which is now, with a gnashing of teeth, aware of the fact that the proxy war against Russia is being waged almost entirely at their expense and against their own vital interests.

What do we count on in this confrontation? First, on ourselves. We will not retreat: neither in Ukraine, nor in global politics. Second, on the strength and wisdom of leaders and peoples of the non-Western world who have adopted the principles of openness, cooperation and free trade, and who will not let them to be destroyed by those who proclaimed and promoted them for as long as it was beneficial for them. Third, on the historical inevitability - the future belongs to those who develop faster than the rest of the world, and today this is not the West at all.

Our experience of survival and development in the face of a military conflict and external pressure will be important and useful not only for us. Those decisions that we make, those technologies that we develop and apply - in all areas, from defense and security to social policy and business - will later become a ready-made package for any country striving to not nominal, but real sovereignty. And we will gladly share them in order to make the world freer, fairer, more equal and multipolar in the full sense of the word. Let's do it together.
Given Russia's and Putin's still-precarious position, this premature victory speech is tempting fate. That said, there are kernels of truth in it. I agree that the U.S. dollar's role as the global reserve currency will decrease (and if I were a foreigner, I'd probably want it to), though I can't see what could replace it.

Relatedly, Michael Saylor gave a recent interview where he did a good job describing the factors that could lead to the further rise of Bitcoin:

Putin's observation that "countries will strengthen their defense capabilities" is curious. NATO certainly will in response to Russia's new aggression. Russia, on the other hand, will need years to simply replace the weapons and troops it has lost in Ukraine. His claim that the West is not the fastest-developing part of the world isn't something he should bring up unless he wants it pointed out that Russia is developing even more slowly than that.
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Certain Russian user
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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funkervogt wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:49 pm Given Russia's and Putin's still-precarious position, this premature victory speech is tempting fate... Putin's observation... His claim that...
Just to clarify: this wasn't Putin's speech. As for:
funkervogt wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:49 pm Russia, on the other hand, will need years to simply replace the weapons and troops it has lost in Ukraine.
Probably not. These losses aren't that great as Western analysts/propagandists claim/wish. For example this...
wjfox wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:29 pm Russian and Russian-backed separatist forces in the Donetsk region of Ukraine have suffered heavy casualties, according to UK intelligence officials.

They estimate the Donetsk militia alone has lost 55% of its original force.
...is obvious bullshit. According to DPR official reports, their losses from 1 january to 9 june were 2061 servicemen and 627 civilians. These are huge numbers, and I can agree that real numbers are even higher. But this is still far from those 55%. An army with such enormous losses would hardly even be able to hold positions, let alone advance. And DPR is moving forward.

In short, there are losses, but they are by no means critical. You will know the real numbers two or three years after the war, when the hysteria cools down and the first calm academic reviews appear, replacing the copy-paste from Ukrainian officials.
We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Certain Russian user wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:52 pm ...when the hysteria cools down and the first calm academic reviews appear...
Just found one such attempt to analyze and summarize the preliminary results, in Russian. I'm not sure google translate will cope the task, but still HIGHLY recommend it to Funkervogt and whoever else interested in analytics instead of sweet and pleasant propaganda:

The First Major War of XXI Century
https://blocked/articles/perva ... -xxi-veka/

Some things are damn true:
Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine was the first major military conflict in the last thirty years being waged by comparable forces. For the first time, it uses almost the full arsenal of available means of warfare except nuclear weapons...

The unipolar world... led to the temporary predominance of a specific type of armed conflict: counterinsurgency wars waged by regular armies against an irregular enemy... Thirty years of counterinsurgency operations have had a profound effect on societies and militaries around the world, including Russia's...

Generations of officers that were brought up in wars with an irregular enemy had to participate in the first full-fledged war. As a result, the conflict revealed serious shortcomings in strategy, tactics, technical equipment and combat training of troops of both Russia and Ukraine with its Western allies...
And so on, about what was done right, what went wrong, and what outcome to expect. Again, highly recommended.

PS the site itself (English section):
https://eng.blocked/

=== === ===

BLOCKED ANALYTICS ??? :shock:
OMG, WjFox, why are you such a coward? After all, I'm alone in this forum, and you have a huge fan club here...

For those still want to read this article, paste in google search: Василий Кашин Первая большая война XXI века
And those want to see the site, paste: журнал Россия в глобальной политике, and then just switch to ENG section

=== === ===

To Funkervogt (and others): it would be interesting to discuss some things calmly and seriously. But, as you can see, not here...
We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
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caltrek
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Certain Russian user wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 5:25 pm
Certain Russian user wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:52 pm ...when the hysteria cools down and the first calm academic reviews appear...
...
The First Major War of XXI Century
https://blocked/articles/pervaya-bolsha ... -xxi-veka/

Some things are damn true:
=== === ===

BLOCKED ANALYTICS ??? :shock:
OMG, WjFox, why are you such a coward? After all, I'm alone in this forum, and you have a huge fan club here...

....
So, when Putin cracks down on Russian journalists who report about the war in Ukraine, he is a big bad macho genius justified in protecting his country from unwanted western propaganda.

When W.J. Fox blocks a site that might include not just Russian propaganda, but worms, cookies, and gawd only knows what other cyberwarfare crap, then he is being a coward?

No double standard there. :roll:

We don't trust you guys...Got it?

That is what happens when your country engages in all manner of cyberwarfare in our countries, and then invades another country right after issuing all sorts of assurances that they had no intention to invade. Your government lied, now no one trusts you. (You in the collective sense of the word and not you personally).

Yes, and the same can be said about the U.S. due to its past transgressions. It sucks, whether you or I like it or not.
Don't mourn, organize.

-Joe Hill
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wjfox
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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caltrek wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:05 pm
[...] a site that might include not just Russian propaganda, but worms, cookies, and gawd only knows what other cyberwarfare crap
Exactly. And having links to ".ru" domains is bad for our SEO.
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Certain Russian user
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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caltrek wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:05 pm Putin... worms, cookies... cyberwarfare... we don't trust you...
C'mon, be honest at least to yourself! This was not at all about "worms and cookies", this was another attempt to "cancel" the new disturbing information and protect one's own intellectual virginity. :lol:

That's what amaze me no end. Even in darkest days of Soviet censorship, people tried to seek the "voices from outside". It seems you guys (fortunately not all, but unfortunately majority) don't even try. Paraphrasing Sun Tzu: "Silencing the ten thousand loud commoners is not the height of censorship. Make commoners silence each other - that's the height..."
caltrek wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:05 pm Yes, and the same can be said about the U.S. due to its past transgressions.
True, but I am not afraid to read the western media or sit in western forum, as you can see. While you shrink in horror before the mere piece of text offered to you: "no-no-no, I don't trust... and we're all do not trust... and there must be worms and cookies..." :lol:

That's the fundamental difference.
Last edited by Certain Russian user on Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
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Ken_J
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by Ken_J »

Certain Russian user wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:04 am
caltrek wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:05 pm Putin... worms, cookies... cyberwarfare... we don't trust you...
C'mon, be honest at least to yourself! This was not at all about "worms and cookies", this was another attempt to "cancel" the new disturbing information and protect one's own intellectual virginity. :lol:

That's what amaze me no end. Even in darkest days of Soviet censorship, people tried to seek the "voices from outside". It seems you guys (fortunately not all, but unfortunately majority) don't even try. Paraphrasing Sun Tzu: "Silencing the ten thousand loud commoners is not the height of censorship. Make commoners silence each other - that's the height..."
caltrek wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:05 pm Yes, and the same can be said about the U.S. due to its past transgressions.
True, but I am not afraid to read the western media or sit in western forum, as you can see. While you shrink in horror before the mere piece of text offered to you: "no-no-no, I don't trust... and we're all do not trust... and there must be worms and cookies..." :lol:

That's the fundamental difference.
you really do have both a paranoid persecution complex and a heavy double standard on everything to do with how Russian conducts itself vs any other non-russians don't you?
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

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Ken_J wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:02 am you really do have both a paranoid persecution complex and a heavy double standard on everything to do with how Russian conducts itself vs any other non-russians don't you?
Sorrywhat? I'm sure you wanted to say something strong and witty on the merits, but you've clearly failed.

Anyway, this is irrelevant. And that's what relevant (from telegram):
We always try to hold back the good news until the exact clarification of the circumstances, but now we can say unequivocally: the AFU grouping near Lysychansk fell into the pocket. Centralized supply through Seversk (about 20 km) was completely cut off. Fighting is already underway on the very outskirts of Lysychansk.
It seems Ukrainian affairs in "Severodonetsk noose" are going very, VERY badly. Yesterday the Hirs'ke-Zolote pocket, and today the second, main pocket (yes, still needs the official confirmation, but the general course of events is clear enough).
We are few, and the enemy is strong, but God is not in power, but in truth. Some with weapons, and others on horseback, but we call on the name of the Lord our God; they were defeated and fell, but we stood and stand straight.
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funkervogt
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Re: Ukraine War Watch Thread

Post by funkervogt »

At this point in the War, Russia's artillery advantage is the decisive factor. Without it, they probably wouldn't be making progress in eastern Ukraine.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-foc ... 37335.html
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