Ukraine War Watch Thread

[ibm9000]

By September

...

It seems another proudly announced future victory failed to materialise

.

and it seems that you are one month in the future...

and no, I don't think it's going to happen, neither in one nor in two months.

[Certain Russian user]

By September

It seems another proudly announced future victory failed to materialise

and it seems that you are one month in the future...

"By September" = "till the end of August". But this is irrelevant, now even The Economist began to introduce their dear readers into the fact that... well, you understand, everything is complicated, Ukraine is "brilliant" in defence but, perhaps, "should not rush" in offence...



Judging by the number of articles, this was an important topic. In one regard they're absolutely right: Ukraine MUST show at least some kind of victory, as its Western sponsors are growing nervous (Ukrainian "victory" in "battle for Kiev" doesn't count and was only good for propaganda purposes). That's why I personally expected (and still do) an attempt of counter offensive no matter what. But, so far, Ukrainian regime switched to plain terrorism: "sowing" the "enemy's" residential areas with thousands and thousands of light anti-personnel mines, killing civil officials in liberated territories, non-stop shelling the NPP near that same Kherson in hope to cause Chernobyl V2... and, last but not least, does not forget to impotently threaten its own citizens receiving Russian humanitarian aid. Well done, motherfuckers, it will surely add 2-3 extra pro-Russian percent on the coming referendums:

[caltrek]

Perhaps the Ukrainian government is more on the side of law and order than certain members of the forum here might suppose.

Russia-Ukraine Live News: Kyiv Denies Involvement in Dugina Death
by Arwa Ibrahim and Federica Marsi
August 21, 2022

Introduction:

(Al Jazeera)
• Ukraine’s top presidential adviser denies Kyiv’s involvement in the death of Darya Dugina, the daughter Putin supporter Alexander Dugin.

• Russia’s defence ministry says that sea-based Kalibr missiles destroyed an ammunition depot containing missiles for US-made HIMARS rocket systems and other Western-made anti-aircraft systems in Ukraine’s Odesa region.

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urges Ukrainians to be vigilant before Independence Day on Wednesday, saying: “We must all be aware that this week Russia could try to do something particularly ugly, something particularly vicious.

• New blasts hit Crimea and a missile attack wounds 12 civilians in Voznesensk, near the Pivdennoukrainsk Nuclear Power Plant, says the governor of the Mykolaiv region.

Read more here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblo ... n-attacks

non-stop shelling the NPP near that same Kherson in hope to cause Chernobyl V2

I should also point out that both sides are accusing the other of this shelling. It would not even be an issue had Putin not decided to invade the Ukraine. At any rate, western news sources have apparently been unable to verify who is doing the shelling at Kherson.

*Waits for cynical response related to why the news media cannot verify this point one way or another.*

[caltrek]

Russia Repels Ukrainian Drones in Crimea as War Broadens
August 20, 2022

Introduction:

(The National) Russian authorities reported shooting down Ukrainian drones on Saturday in Crimea, while Ukrainian officials said Russian forces pressed ahead with efforts to seize one of the few cities in eastern Ukraine not already under their control. The Russian military also kept up its strikes in Ukraine’s north and south.

In Crimea, Russian authorities said local air defences shot down a drone above the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. It was the second drone incident at the headquarters in three weeks and followed explosions at a Russian airfield and ammunition depot on the peninsula this month.

Oleg Kryuchkov, an aide to Crimea’s governor, also said on Saturday that “attacks by small drones” triggered air-defence systems in western Crimea.
The incidents underlined Russian forces’ vulnerability in Crimea.

Read more here: https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/ ... broadens/

caltrek’s comment: I am actually not comfortable with the idea of Ukraine extending operations into Crimea. Another one of those "whether I like it or not" developments. There was another article I came across earlier discussing this issue:

Introduction:

(Antiwar.com) A senior Biden administration official told Politico on Wednesday that the US supports Ukraine striking Crimea, which Russia has controlled since 2014 but neither Washington nor Kyiv recognize as Russian territory.

The official said the US considers strikes on Ukrainian soil “self-defense,” which applies to Crimea in Washington’s eyes. “We don’t select targets, of course, and everything we’ve provided is for self-defense purposes. Any target they choose to pursue on sovereign Ukrainian soil is by definition self-defense,” the official said.

The comments came after a series of explosions at Russian military facilities in Crimea, including a major one at the Saki air base that reportedly destroyed nine Russian warplanes. Officially, Kyiv hasn’t taken credit for the incidents, but Ukrainian officials have strongly hinted at Ukraine’s involvement.

While the recent incidents appear to be acts of sabotage, Ukrainian officials have said they are preparing to use US-provided weapons, such as HIMARS rocket systems, to attack Crimea. Washington doesn’t want Ukraine using US weapons on Russian territory, but Crimea appears to be fair game since the US considers it Ukraine.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Wednesday that there are no restrictions on using US-provided weapons on “occupied territories” of Ukraine. “But if we are talking today about the de-occupation of temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine where the enemy is, then, correspondingly, we have no such restrictions,” Reznikov said.

Read more here: https://news.antiwar.com/2022/08/18/us ... g-crimea/

[ibm9000]

(Al Jazeera)
• Ukraine’s top presidential adviser denies Kyiv’s involvement in the death of Darya Dugina, the daughter Putin supporter Alexander Dugin

.

No Government is going to acknowledge involvement in that "action", maybe, and only maybe, in the killing of his
father; you can always declare him instigator, brains behind or any title you may want to give to somebody you are going to kill anyway.

Let not fool ourselves about our own actions.

[caltrek]

(Al Jazeera)
• Ukraine’s top presidential adviser denies Kyiv’s involvement in the death of Darya Dugina, the daughter Putin supporter Alexander Dugin

.

No Government is going to acknowledge involvement in that "action", maybe, and only maybe, in the killing of his
father; you can always declare him instigator, brains behind or any title you may want to give to somebody you are going to kill anyway.

Let not fool ourselves about our own actions.

How can you jump from "no government is" to let us "not fool ourselves about our own actions'?' Shilling for the Russian government now, perhaps?

You implied something for which you offered zero proof. But, hey, in doing that you have put your own credibility on the line, not mine.

Whatever occurred behind the scenes, the Ukrainian government is publicly distancing itself from such acts of terrorism. Meaning that they are not publicly encouraging such acts. What else do you expect them to do?

Oh, that is right, you are the one that keeps implying they should just abjectly surrender to their wannabe fascist overlords.

[ibm9000]

You implied something...

What did I imply exactly? or maybe more appropriately, how many things do I imply?

J. Khashoggi, did we invade any country -dictatorship~full/imperfect democracy- for that killing? The British G. didn't attempt the murder of B. Devlin, it just let it happened... the Finucane "business" was a bit different, anyway. Did the French G. acknowledge the sinking of the R. Warrior.

Did you realize what you wrote?: behind the scenes/publicly, that is exactly what I expect every government to say, and to do.


I do remember using the word "negotiation", not "surrender" but I maybe wrong, you, seem to be right.

Also, I do remember some kind of protocol/joke from Washington's journalists: it is "unconfirmed" until the Government officially denies it.

(By the way, I don't think they have anything to do with that, but who was trying to get what in... one year? I have no idea; is hitting Putin's circle one possibility?, do you know anybody interested in doing that?)

My bet -my "shilling"- is on hypocrisy, as you know.

[caltrek]

Deteriorating Situation at Ukraine’s Largest Nuclear Power Plant
by Dawn Stover
August 19, 2022

Introduction:

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) Russian forces have occupied the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station in southern Ukraine for more than five months, placing the power plant’s six nuclear reactors and its stores of radioactive spent fuel at unprecedented risk. The situation at the plant continues to worsen.

Russia and Ukraine, which blamed each other for earlier attacks on the plant, are this week trading fresh accusations and warning that another attack on the plant is coming soon.

Ukrainian military intelligence told NBC News that Russia had ordered most of the Zaporizhzhia plant’s staff to stay home from work today. On its verified Facebook page, the Ukrainian intelligence directorate of the defense ministry claimed there is a “high likelihood” of a large-scale terrorist attack on the facility.

The Russian Ministry of Defense earlier accused the Ukrainian military of preparing to launch a terrorist attack on the Zaporizhzhia plant. The ministry acknowledged it is considering a shutdown of the plant in response to “negative developments.”

Read more of the cited article here: https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/deteri ... t-heading

The Bulletin also had two other articles related to this same topic:
1) https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/a-ukrai ... t-heading

2)https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/experts ... st-heading

[caltrek]

Russia Repels Ukrainian Drones in Crimea as War Broadens

More on the topic of drone attacks into Crimea:

(The Drive) Ukraine's shadow offensive on strategic Russian targets well behind the front lines appears to be just heating up. The mysterious, 'available on Alibaba,' converted long-range suicide drone was seen in action for the second time today, this time making an attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea. The twin-tail-boom fixed-wing drone was spotted overhead just before a plume rose from the fleet's headquarters. It appears the drone impacted a roofline, damaging it, but there is no word on casualties, at least according to Russian officials.

(See article linked below for several related Twitter feeds).

This is the second confirmed drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet's headquarters in just three weeks. In our coverage of the last attack, we noted it seemed very likely that the operation was just a harbinger of what was to come. That proved all too accurate as targets in Crimea have since come under repeated attack, including a very successful operation against Russian Navy tactical jets at Saki Airbase. Even just the day before yesterday, Russia claimed to shoot down a drone at nearby Belbek Airbase after claims began to emerge of more explosions there. Satellite imagery proved that the base was left untouched. Other targets in Crimea have included large ammunition stockpiles, meanwhile similar targets continue to mysteriously go up in flames in border areas of Russia proper.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... ikes-again

[caltrek]

You implied something...

What did I imply exactly? or maybe more appropriately, how many things do I imply?

You implied that the Ukrainian government sponsored the terrorist attack under discussion.

Yes, you are a slippery one who implies many countless things. Beyond my feeble grasp to keep up with, I am afraid.

J. Khashoggi, did we invade any country -dictatorship~full/imperfect democracy- for that killing? The British G. didn't attempt the murder of B. Devlin, it just let it happened... the Finucane "business" was a bit different, anyway. Did the French G. acknowledge the sinking of the R. Warrior.

More what aboutism that belongs in a different thread (or threads) that I will not honor with a further response.

Did you realize what you wrote?: behind the scenes/publicly, that is exactly what I expect every government to say, and to do.

Hard to understand exactly what you are saying. What you expect for moral reasons? Ethical reasons? Cynical reasons? For the sake of being realistic?

Again, hard for me to understand your point here.

I do remember using the word "negotiation", not "surrender" but I maybe wrong, you, seem to be right.

Fair enough. Do you now wish to embrace the idea of supporting a negotiated settlement?

Also, I do remember some kind of protocol/joke from Washington's journalists: it is "unconfirmed" until the Government officially denies it.

Nice, I will have to remember that one.

(By the way, I don't think they have anything to do with that, but who was trying to get what in... one year? I have no idea; is hitting Putin's circle one possibility?, do you know anybody interested in doing that?)

...know anybody Interested in doing that? Personally, no. I imagine there might be some genuine home-grown terrorists, possibly with sympathies to Ukraine, but that is different from sponsored terrorists acting in collusion with the Ukrainian government. At any rate, that (what I am saying in this response) is all just speculation.

My bet -my "shilling"- is on hypocrisy, as you know.

No, I don't know that, but thank you for the clarification.

Would it not be hypocrisy to completely endorse the lies put out by one government, especially one that lied about its intentions to invade in the first place, while seeking to cast in doubt everything stated by another government, especially one that is victim of said invasion?

To your credit, you have also been critical of Certain Russian's pro-government comments, but I can only take at face value your reasons for doing that.